Drop Rates Per Player

GariverSt
189 posts Has Potential To Be Special
Hi all, 

Has there ever been any insight or transparency in terms of the drop rate for players? The current percentages EA provides is meaningless. Has there ever been anyone (a former employee of EA for example) provided any information on drop rates? 

The obvious approach - is a particular ratio assigned for every pack opened. For example, Ronaldo could be one in every millionth gold rare player packed and James Maddison could be one in every ten-thousandth gold rare player pack (this is hypothetical). 

What has got me interested is whether they alter the drop rate or ratio depending on the value of player? I seem to pack Lautaro Martinez and Depay on a regular basis (and they are consistently one of the cheapest 84 rated players on the market). However this (on meaningless anecdotal evidence) appears to change during TOTS as they are both very expensive (Martinez about a mil currently). 

If this is the case - do you think it's okay for EA to alter the ratios depending on the value? It would be good to get people's thoughts or insights. 

Comments

  • kraid
    7637 posts League Winner
    edited June 2020
    I think the algorithm that dictates pack results is based off value. This has been supported by the drop rates of rares from league with an upcoming tots drying up as people start to buy them up in anticipation, thus driving up their price and rarity
  • Chavez76
    9852 posts League Winner
    There is no transparancy on this at all. We all know however that certain cards drop (way!!) more than others.
    How often did you pack 80 Ferland Mendy for example? 80 rated, should be all over the place, yet I can remember packing him once, And I did a lot of SBC's / rewards etc
  • CarpeDiem
    3245 posts National Call-Up
    Chavez76 wrote: »
    There is no transparancy on this at all. We all know however that certain cards drop (way!!) more than others.
    How often did you pack 80 Ferland Mendy for example? 80 rated, should be all over the place, yet I can remember packing him once, And I did a lot of SBC's / rewards etc

    Yep, him and Sissoko theres some streamers who do every lightning round that still haven't packed him.
  • LiTTl3_King15
    480 posts Sunday League Hero
    edited June 2020
    CarpeDiem wrote: »
    Chavez76 wrote: »
    There is no transparancy on this at all. We all know however that certain cards drop (way!!) more than others.
    How often did you pack 80 Ferland Mendy for example? 80 rated, should be all over the place, yet I can remember packing him once, And I did a lot of SBC's / rewards etc

    Yep, him and Sissoko theres some streamers who do every lightning round that still haven't packed him.

    even some of the higher rated cards are very hard to come by like you have more chance of packing certain 85s-90s then others like most times you pack 88s-90s they are cheap/common players or goalies. I have packed quite a few 86-90s but no Van Dijk, Mane,Sane,Griezmann,Mbappe just to name some examples. It's because they are "meta" or expensive cards so they must lower drop rates for specific cards based on prices and popularity.Don't even get me started on the drop rates for icons theres 85ovr icons that are still extremely hard to pack lol

    Just like in Tots packs when tots have base cards that are low rated golds/silvers so you would assume you would pack them more often but you don't but as soon as tots is over I will probably pack a bunch of Pozuelo,Martinez,Vela again there is definitely some inconsistencies going on somewhere down the line.
  • Yoesi
    721 posts Semi-Pro
    kraid wrote: »
    I think the algorithm that dictates pack results is based off value. This has been supported by the drop rates of rares from league with an upcoming tots drying up as people start to buy them up in anticipation, thus driving up their price and rarity

    The drop rates in general yes. But there is also highly plausible that they have a fixed drop rate per account,
    I think we are put into different groupings based on how many logins we have, what our team value is etc.
    All the casuals out there that I have contact with have much better pack weight then I do. It`s not a phenomenon from this year, it has been this a long time. The most valued player this year and last year was packed after I came back from working a shift in a establishment without internet connections. You see there is an obvious pattern that cannot be ignored or misinterpreted.
  • phep
    2015 posts Fans' Favourite
    Chavez76 wrote: »
    There is no transparancy on this at all. We all know however that certain cards drop (way!!) more than others.
    How often did you pack 80 Ferland Mendy for example? 80 rated, should be all over the place, yet I can remember packing him once, And I did a lot of SBC's / rewards etc

    See also - the amount of times you pack Visca/Tadic compared to Ousmane Dembele. Or Even Djene/casteels compared to say Martial or WBY

    It sort of makes a mockery of the pack odds saying “10% chance of an 85+ player” etc.
  • GariverSt
    189 posts Has Potential To Be Special
    Another example is Ben Yedder. There are currently 14 TOTS Ben Yedder on the market on PS4. 14. A couple of weeks ago I went to buy him on a Monday morning (after SB rewards) and there were pages of his base card that looked like fresh cards packed.

    The algorithm must be based on value or they change the ratio during particular weeks.
  • LiTTl3_King15
    480 posts Sunday League Hero
    phep wrote: »
    Chavez76 wrote: »
    There is no transparancy on this at all. We all know however that certain cards drop (way!!) more than others.
    How often did you pack 80 Ferland Mendy for example? 80 rated, should be all over the place, yet I can remember packing him once, And I did a lot of SBC's / rewards etc

    See also - the amount of times you pack Visca/Tadic compared to Ousmane Dembele. Or Even Djene/casteels compared to say Martial or WBY

    It sort of makes a mockery of the pack odds saying “10% chance of an 85+ player” etc.

    the pack odds are only there by law because EA is forced to do it otherwise they would not even bother putting them lol
    also I think that it partly goes based on the previous pulls of the community if people are pulling more percentage goes up when you look at odds so it looks better, if people pull less percentage goes down as its constantly updating. Just like yesterday when I fist logged on for mls tots the drop rates were 7.1 percent for a tots in a rare player pack so I went and did some sbcs came back about an hour later and the rates had dropped below 6.9 percent on the same rare player pack there is some form of manipulation for sure.
  • phep
    2015 posts Fans' Favourite
    phep wrote: »
    Chavez76 wrote: »
    There is no transparancy on this at all. We all know however that certain cards drop (way!!) more than others.
    How often did you pack 80 Ferland Mendy for example? 80 rated, should be all over the place, yet I can remember packing him once, And I did a lot of SBC's / rewards etc

    See also - the amount of times you pack Visca/Tadic compared to Ousmane Dembele. Or Even Djene/casteels compared to say Martial or WBY

    It sort of makes a mockery of the pack odds saying “10% chance of an 85+ player” etc.

    the pack odds are only there by law because EA is forced to do it otherwise they would not even bother putting them lol
    also I think that it partly goes based on the previous pulls of the community if people are pulling more percentage goes up when you look at odds so it looks better, if people pull less percentage goes down as its constantly updating. Just like yesterday when I fist logged on for mls tots the drop rates were 7.1 percent for a tots in a rare player pack so I went and did some sbcs came back about an hour later and the rates had dropped below 6.9 percent on the same rare player pack there is some form of manipulation for sure.

    Yeah, it’s just a pretty lousy way around the law to pretend that somehow all 83’s are of equal value (despite having vastly different price ranges - although that applies more to the higher rated end).

    Interesting about the changing pack weights though. I always thought the chances were applied “front end” - so they’d set the chance and then 7.1% of people would get the pull, not that it might be retrospective odds on what was happening right then. Seems particularly dodgy to me...
  • Retro_G
    33023 posts National Team Captain
    Yoesi wrote: »
    kraid wrote: »
    I think the algorithm that dictates pack results is based off value. This has been supported by the drop rates of rares from league with an upcoming tots drying up as people start to buy them up in anticipation, thus driving up their price and rarity

    The drop rates in general yes. But there is also highly plausible that they have a fixed drop rate per account,
    I think we are put into different groupings based on how many logins we have, what our team value is etc.
    All the casuals out there that I have contact with have much better pack weight then I do. It`s not a phenomenon from this year, it has been this a long time. The most valued player this year and last year was packed after I came back from working a shift in a establishment without internet connections. You see there is an obvious pattern that cannot be ignored or misinterpreted.

    Spot on mate, it's fairly obvious. Reoccurring spenders will also be thrown a bone every few months. I usually buy Fifa points when the game releases, but don't buy anymore points for the rest of the game cycle. The last two years I got an icon in the exact same months, that was January. Then my so called luck dries up again, won't pack anything else for months. Fifa 18 was the year I didn't buy any Fifa points, had amazing luck that year and even got TOTS Messi untradable.
  • kraid
    7637 posts League Winner
    Yoesi wrote: »
    kraid wrote: »
    I think the algorithm that dictates pack results is based off value. This has been supported by the drop rates of rares from league with an upcoming tots drying up as people start to buy them up in anticipation, thus driving up their price and rarity

    The drop rates in general yes. But there is also highly plausible that they have a fixed drop rate per account,
    I think we are put into different groupings based on how many logins we have, what our team value is etc.
    All the casuals out there that I have contact with have much better pack weight then I do. It`s not a phenomenon from this year, it has been this a long time. The most valued player this year and last year was packed after I came back from working a shift in a establishment without internet connections. You see there is an obvious pattern that cannot be ignored or misinterpreted.

    Very plausible, we don’t know what they’re doing so our experience shape our opinion on it. Personally I’ve played the game pretty consistently this year, not always during the week but almost every wl. I’ve packed some very big players, pulled pim kaka when he was 4 million coins, probably 4 other lower icons, nif messi. Had decent luck from the icon swaps packs getting Ronaldinho from the mid and Matthäus from the prime. Picked up red Ronaldo from picks last week. So my experience doesn’t match up with that premise.

    We will probably never know for sure.
  • Stone_cold_tea93
    3647 posts National Call-Up
    I have played a stupid amount of Fifa this year. I have packed 2 Messi's 2 Neymars and Prime Rivaldo and that's off the top of my head.

    There is no account conspiracy.
    Yoesi wrote: »
    kraid wrote: »
    I think the algorithm that dictates pack results is based off value. This has been supported by the drop rates of rares from league with an upcoming tots drying up as people start to buy them up in anticipation, thus driving up their price and rarity

    The drop rates in general yes. But there is also highly plausible that they have a fixed drop rate per account,
    I think we are put into different groupings based on how many logins we have, what our team value is etc.
    All the casuals out there that I have contact with have much better pack weight then I do. It`s not a phenomenon from this year, it has been this a long time. The most valued player this year and last year was packed after I came back from working a shift in a establishment without internet connections. You see there is an obvious pattern that cannot be ignored or misinterpreted.

  • GariverSt
    189 posts Has Potential To Be Special
    Yeah I'm not sure I believe they change odds depending on the account. It wouldn't be a great look if it came out, that EA were purposefully fluctuating rates to manipulate people so they remain online. It's unfair for those that spend money on packs and ethically isn't a good look.

    If the algorithm is based on a live 'market value' that makes sense and explains some of the discrepancies (i.e Yedder, Martinez etc during TOTS).

    It would be good to get more transparency. I'm surprised no one from EA has ever explained it.

  • Kobayashi
    465 posts Sunday League Hero
    Had nothing over 83 from one set of 4600 FIFA Points, but in those Marquee Matchups SBC's have had Messi 94, TOTY nominee De Ligt, Lewandowski 94, Alisson 89 Twice, I roughly did about 5-10 SBCS per week a while back, but the pack weight seems better in SBC than the FIFA Points, that is for certain
  • tedski69
    297 posts Sunday League Hero
    Packs won't be around soon anyway.
  • Onedoesntsimply
    2308 posts Fans' Favourite
    Should be a legal requirement to provide exact drop rate of any specific card in any pack, should the user wish to see it. Basically any kind of gambling is regulated and has either disclosed or calculable odds so I don't see why pack odds should be hidden away from the user.
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