I 100% believe EA have lowered drop rates of anything good, to make sure people keep splashing out on points because they think there's a chance of getting something good.
I've made anther thread about my pack luck this week. Over 100 opened and had 2x 84 and 3x 82 and evething else i 81 or less. I'd say 60% of my packs are 78 or below.
Not quite to sure of your point here as both probabilities and statistics say that a 16.6 chance of something happening will happen. Its still statistically likely to happen as its much higher than the golden ratio and therefore will happen.
I'm not sure it can be compared to coins, dice etc, where the possibilities are limited. Opening more packs doesn't equate to improving the odds of packing a toty.
So having heads10 times in a row is very very unlikely.
Opening a pack and getting 99% chance of NOT packing a TOTY thousand times in a row is less likely than only doing it 10 times.
That explains our variation in our point of view, I'm arguing statistics, your argument is probability, very very different subjects but on a probability front your totally correct, ( probabilities is still a junk field of mathematics though😝)
So if you put a revolver at your head with one bullet in it. Would you prefer doing it 1 time or 100 times mate ?
And please dont say you wont do it at all.
No matter what you say, the chances of surviving one try here are decent. The chances to survive hundert tries in a row are really really slim.
A more realistic version is 100 glasses of water 1 has a drop of poison in it, each time you drink a glass if you don't die refill it shuffle them and take another glass, if you said that then yes I would confidently do that 100 times as I have done that experiment (with strawberry flavor not poison) and would happily do it again. I only got water every time.
no they dont, each pack has a 0.01 chance of packing a toty card, if you open 10 each pack still has a 0.01 chance, it never gos up, you could open a million packs and never pack one as the odds are still 0.01 per pack.
statistics and betting odds are 2 different fields of study entirely, statistically your odds seem to improve per pack opened, but in reality they dont, its a interesting misconception, its why so many people play the same line on the lotto, they have to come up some time.
Lets say the chance to pack a TOTY is 1% (just easier to explain):
Each individual pack opened has a 1% chance to pack a TOTY and a 99% chance to not pack a TOTY.
If you do that 10 times, each single opening has a 1% chance, but when doing it ten times in a row the probability of NOT packing at least 1 TOTY is now lower than 99%.
Sorry totally wrong, a perfect example of what im trying to say, you have a 1% chance a toty and a 99% chance of not packing one, NO MATTER HOW MANY YOU OPEN thats the trap, every pack is its own unit, it has no connection with the previous pack therfore the odds dont change. you could do it as many times as you want and you still have a 99% failure rate as each pack is completely seperate from each other.
You have no Idea mate.
Take a dice as example. Each individual throw has a 1 in 6 chance to get the number 1.
That does not change no matter how much you throw the dice.
BUT: If you roll the dice 10 times the chances of NOT getting the number 1 at least one time is (way) lower than 5/6
This guy is right. If the chance on a TOTY is 1%, theres a 99% chance of not packing. If you open 100 packs, you have a chance of 0,99^100 = 36,6 percent chance of not packing a ToTY so basically 63,4% of packing a toty if you open 100 of said packs
It doesn't work like that, it only works like that if there is a cumulative result. With pack opening you start again at 1 every time. Each pack is it's own object, and will always be less than 1%, you if what you were saying is true there would be millions of toty players avalible. With the model they claim to use even ea do not know how many of each player Will be available.
no they dont, each pack has a 0.01 chance of packing a toty card, if you open 10 each pack still has a 0.01 chance, it never gos up, you could open a million packs and never pack one as the odds are still 0.01 per pack.
statistics and betting odds are 2 different fields of study entirely, statistically your odds seem to improve per pack opened, but in reality they dont, its a interesting misconception, its why so many people play the same line on the lotto, they have to come up some time.
Lets say the chance to pack a TOTY is 1% (just easier to explain):
Each individual pack opened has a 1% chance to pack a TOTY and a 99% chance to not pack a TOTY.
If you do that 10 times, each single opening has a 1% chance, but when doing it ten times in a row the probability of NOT packing at least 1 TOTY is now lower than 99%.
Sorry totally wrong, a perfect example of what im trying to say, you have a 1% chance a toty and a 99% chance of not packing one, NO MATTER HOW MANY YOU OPEN thats the trap, every pack is its own unit, it has no connection with the previous pack therfore the odds dont change. you could do it as many times as you want and you still have a 99% failure rate as each pack is completely seperate from each other.
You have no Idea mate.
Take a dice as example. Each individual throw has a 1 in 6 chance to get the number 1.
That does not change no matter how much you throw the dice.
BUT: If you roll the dice 10 times the chances of NOT getting the number 1 at least one time is (way) lower than 5/6
This guy is right. If the chance on a TOTY is 1%, theres a 99% chance of not packing. If you open 100 packs, you have a chance of 0,99^100 = 36,6 percent chance of not packing a ToTY so basically 63,4% of packing a toty if you open 100 of said packs
no they dont, each pack has a 0.01 chance of packing a toty card, if you open 10 each pack still has a 0.01 chance, it never gos up, you could open a million packs and never pack one as the odds are still 0.01 per pack.
statistics and betting odds are 2 different fields of study entirely, statistically your odds seem to improve per pack opened, but in reality they dont, its a interesting misconception, its why so many people play the same line on the lotto, they have to come up some time.
Lets say the chance to pack a TOTY is 1% (just easier to explain):
Each individual pack opened has a 1% chance to pack a TOTY and a 99% chance to not pack a TOTY.
If you do that 10 times, each single opening has a 1% chance, but when doing it ten times in a row the probability of NOT packing at least 1 TOTY is now lower than 99%.
Sorry totally wrong, a perfect example of what im trying to say, you have a 1% chance a toty and a 99% chance of not packing one, NO MATTER HOW MANY YOU OPEN thats the trap, every pack is its own unit, it has no connection with the previous pack therfore the odds dont change. you could do it as many times as you want and you still have a 99% failure rate as each pack is completely seperate from each other.
You have no Idea mate.
Take a dice as example. Each individual throw has a 1 in 6 chance to get the number 1.
That does not change no matter how much you throw the dice.
BUT: If you roll the dice 10 times the chances of NOT getting the number 1 at least one time is (way) lower than 5/6
This guy is right. If the chance on a TOTY is 1%, theres a 99% chance of not packing. If you open 100 packs, you have a chance of 0,99^100 = 36,6 percent chance of not packing a ToTY so basically 63,4% of packing a toty if you open 100 of said packs
Sorry but I disagree. The chance of packing a toty is not 1%. It's less than 1% which is intentionally extremely vague. We can't just round it off to 1% because the difference is massive.
There are 2 sides to a coin, 6 chambers in a revolver, etc. The possibilities are limited. EA doesn't tell us how many totys are available in unopened packs so the possibilities are limitless as far as we know. If we knew that there were say 100k KDBs available in the world then we could make some kind of calculation as to the chances of packing one.
Notice how promo packs are limited by time and not by amount available. Again, intentionally extremely vague.
As the op suggests, the <1% part is the biggest problem. It's just a game of chance and if it wasn't we would be the winners, not EA.
Less than 1%, in my opinion means 0% and I believe EA are adding the cards to the market themselves. Not aware of anyone who has packed a tradeable TOTY player?
no they dont, each pack has a 0.01 chance of packing a toty card, if you open 10 each pack still has a 0.01 chance, it never gos up, you could open a million packs and never pack one as the odds are still 0.01 per pack.
statistics and betting odds are 2 different fields of study entirely, statistically your odds seem to improve per pack opened, but in reality they dont, its a interesting misconception, its why so many people play the same line on the lotto, they have to come up some time.
Lets say the chance to pack a TOTY is 1% (just easier to explain):
Each individual pack opened has a 1% chance to pack a TOTY and a 99% chance to not pack a TOTY.
If you do that 10 times, each single opening has a 1% chance, but when doing it ten times in a row the probability of NOT packing at least 1 TOTY is now lower than 99%.
Sorry totally wrong, a perfect example of what im trying to say, you have a 1% chance a toty and a 99% chance of not packing one, NO MATTER HOW MANY YOU OPEN thats the trap, every pack is its own unit, it has no connection with the previous pack therfore the odds dont change. you could do it as many times as you want and you still have a 99% failure rate as each pack is completely seperate from each other.
You have no Idea mate.
Take a dice as example. Each individual throw has a 1 in 6 chance to get the number 1.
That does not change no matter how much you throw the dice.
BUT: If you roll the dice 10 times the chances of NOT getting the number 1 at least one time is (way) lower than 5/6
This guy is right. If the chance on a TOTY is 1%, theres a 99% chance of not packing. If you open 100 packs, you have a chance of 0,99^100 = 36,6 percent chance of not packing a ToTY so basically 63,4% of packing a toty if you open 100 of said packs
Sorry but I disagree. The chance of packing a toty is not 1%. It's less than 1% which is intentionally extremely vague. We can't just round it off to 1% because the difference is massive.
There are 2 sides to a coin, 6 chambers in a revolver, etc. The possibilities are limited. EA doesn't tell us how many totys are available in unopened packs so the possibilities are limitless as far as we know. If we knew that there were say 100k KDBs available in the world then we could make some kind of calculation as to the chances of packing one.
Notice how promo packs are limited by time and not by amount available. Again, intentionally extremely vague.
As the op suggests, the <1% part is the biggest problem. It's just a game of chance and if it wasn't we would be the winners, not EA.
The 1% I took is just an example. We all know <1% means probably smth like 0,1%.. EA should state the REAL chance in stead of <1%.. dont even know if this is allowed
sold my ps4 today, as spent to much on fifa points, like a gambling addiction. sadly i cant control it. and still i didnt pack a toty. company needs sorted, its a joke and sad that it can get away with it.
I mean, good on you for cutting out bad habits, but couldn't you have just played something else?
Or, did you honestly feel that as long as you had a way to play games you'd be unable to avoid Fifa?
no they dont, each pack has a 0.01 chance of packing a toty card, if you open 10 each pack still has a 0.01 chance, it never gos up, you could open a million packs and never pack one as the odds are still 0.01 per pack.
statistics and betting odds are 2 different fields of study entirely, statistically your odds seem to improve per pack opened, but in reality they dont, its a interesting misconception, its why so many people play the same line on the lotto, they have to come up some time.
Lets say the chance to pack a TOTY is 1% (just easier to explain):
Each individual pack opened has a 1% chance to pack a TOTY and a 99% chance to not pack a TOTY.
If you do that 10 times, each single opening has a 1% chance, but when doing it ten times in a row the probability of NOT packing at least 1 TOTY is now lower than 99%.
Sorry totally wrong, a perfect example of what im trying to say, you have a 1% chance a toty and a 99% chance of not packing one, NO MATTER HOW MANY YOU OPEN thats the trap, every pack is its own unit, it has no connection with the previous pack therfore the odds dont change. you could do it as many times as you want and you still have a 99% failure rate as each pack is completely seperate from each other.
You have no Idea mate.
Take a dice as example. Each individual throw has a 1 in 6 chance to get the number 1.
That does not change no matter how much you throw the dice.
BUT: If you roll the dice 10 times the chances of NOT getting the number 1 at least one time is (way) lower than 5/6
This guy is right. If the chance on a TOTY is 1%, theres a 99% chance of not packing. If you open 100 packs, you have a chance of 0,99^100 = 36,6 percent chance of not packing a ToTY so basically 63,4% of packing a toty if you open 100 of said packs
It just dosent work that way, sorry but if that was the way it worked every time you played the lotto your chances of winning increase, your saying if you played 15 weeks in a row you have more chance of winning than someone who played once (which im sure you all know just isen't true) I just dont know how else to explain it to you, errrm if you enter a raffle and there are a 1000 tickets every ticket has the same chance but you woud argue that any number above 100 has a better chance as the winning number will probably have 3 numbers. In probability theory i would begrugingly agree that could be seen as correct but all tickets have a equal chance of wining in pure statistics,
Opening a fresh pack is like entering a new raffle, just because you entered the last one, do you think you have a better chance of winning this one, the thing you are not seeing is that previous results dont matter - in your examples the ones who enter the lotto evey week are most likly to win, its just not real.
no they dont, each pack has a 0.01 chance of packing a toty card, if you open 10 each pack still has a 0.01 chance, it never gos up, you could open a million packs and never pack one as the odds are still 0.01 per pack.
statistics and betting odds are 2 different fields of study entirely, statistically your odds seem to improve per pack opened, but in reality they dont, its a interesting misconception, its why so many people play the same line on the lotto, they have to come up some time.
Lets say the chance to pack a TOTY is 1% (just easier to explain):
Each individual pack opened has a 1% chance to pack a TOTY and a 99% chance to not pack a TOTY.
If you do that 10 times, each single opening has a 1% chance, but when doing it ten times in a row the probability of NOT packing at least 1 TOTY is now lower than 99%.
Sorry totally wrong, a perfect example of what im trying to say, you have a 1% chance a toty and a 99% chance of not packing one, NO MATTER HOW MANY YOU OPEN thats the trap, every pack is its own unit, it has no connection with the previous pack therfore the odds dont change. you could do it as many times as you want and you still have a 99% failure rate as each pack is completely seperate from each other.
You have no Idea mate.
Take a dice as example. Each individual throw has a 1 in 6 chance to get the number 1.
That does not change no matter how much you throw the dice.
BUT: If you roll the dice 10 times the chances of NOT getting the number 1 at least one time is (way) lower than 5/6
This guy is right. If the chance on a TOTY is 1%, theres a 99% chance of not packing. If you open 100 packs, you have a chance of 0,99^100 = 36,6 percent chance of not packing a ToTY so basically 63,4% of packing a toty if you open 100 of said packs
if i use your example, the chances to win the English lotto is 450057474 to 1 or 0.00000022%, by your own example if i play for a 100 weeks my chance is now 0.009% this is by your math....... it just dosent seem right that just by playing every week for a hundred weeks increases my chances so much but thats what you believe.
statistically it is possible but unlikely, when dealing with odds over 5% both trains of thought pretty much line up, its in the fine details where the fun debates are EisenErmin and I are arguing a very old argument which has no answer and is why theoretical maths is so much fun, I could go a lot deeper but am trying to keep it at laymans levels, not for EisenErmins sake as im sure he could follow it but it can get very complicated if your not to sure about distinctions and too be totaly honest if we go to deep you will think we are both saying the same thing. LOL I love math.
Jeez guys. The coin toss and dice examples were simple and exactly correct. You might not get heads or the number 6 on your first few coinflips or rolls but the more attempts you do, the better your chance of getting heads or rolling a 6 at least once is.
If you look at each coinflip or dice roll on its own then yes the probability is static - 1:2 or 1:6 but if you do them a 100 times, your likelihood of hitting heads or 6 at least once vastly improves.
The only valid argument here is that EA hides the minuscule probability behind the phrase <1% which prob means 0.01% or something meaning you’ll need a huge amount of attempts to actually hit your target at least once. Furthermore no one except probably the innermost circle in EA can actually prove that chance is even there in reality.
Jeez guys. The coin toss and dice examples were simple and exactly correct. You might not get heads or the number 6 on your first few coinflips or rolls but the more attempts you do, the better your chance of getting heads or rolling a 6 at least once is.
If you look at each coinflip or dice roll on its own then yes the probability is static - 1:2 or 1:6 but if you do them a 100 times, your likelihood of hitting heads or 6 at least once vastly improves.
The only valid argument here is that EA hides the minuscule probability behind the phrase <1% which prob means 0.01% or something meaning you’ll need a huge amount of attempts to actually hit your target at least once. Furthermore no one except probably the innermost circle in EA can actually prove that chance is even there in reality.
This is how this thread should end. Well said, nothing to add. !
My point is that it do'sent matter how many you do, every pack starts again at 1, so the odds never change.
If you think it does that's probability theory and i'm afraid that's just wrong.
If previous pack luck had any influence then there would have to be a set number of toty players avalible, EA have set pack luck so even they do not know how many will be avalible.
If EA have a set number of players avalible then we are trying to get players from a pool and therefore probability is correct.
Becos we are suckers. And we buy out the ultimate packs during lightning rounds day in day out. As long as we keep doing that EA will never up their packs odds
Hahaha Castro and Bateson buy all the lightning packs! Not us
I expect it is disgustingly low 0.00001% per pack. Of course you have a “higher” chance the more packs you open but your success rate doesn’t accumulate. It is reset every time you open a pack. You could probably open 10,000 packs and not get one. That Castro guy spent £5000 on fifa points and then didn’t get one. Really there is no equivalent to compare how small the chances of packing a TOTY card are. Even the national lottery probably has better odds.
I expect it is disgustingly low 0.00001% per pack. Of course you have a “higher” chance the more packs you open but your success rate doesn’t accumulate. It is reset every time you open a pack. You could probably open 10,000 packs and not get one. That Castro guy spent £5000 on fifa points and then didn’t get one. Really there is no equivalent to compare how small the chances of packing a TOTY card are. Even the national lottery probably has better odds.
I expect it is disgustingly low 0.00001% per pack. Of course you have a “higher” chance the more packs you open but your success rate doesn’t accumulate. It is reset every time you open a pack. You could probably open 10,000 packs and not get one. That Castro guy spent £5000 on fifa points and then didn’t get one. Really there is no equivalent to compare how small the chances of packing a TOTY card are. Even the national lottery probably has better odds.
He spent over $15,000 when I watched him.
Jesus... I watched him the first day, bet he put another 15k in the next day then. Idiot!
sold my ps4 today, as spent to much on fifa points, like a gambling addiction. sadly i cant control it. and still i didnt pack a toty. company needs sorted, its a joke and sad that it can get away with it.
Lol, I don't see how you having absolutely no self control is the fault of EA
The problem is that they refuse to reveal the actual chance of packing stuff. Like, it states a rating, so for example, not every player over 91 will be the same. I imagine there's probably 50x more Oblaks out there than a player of the same rating.
EA are just lying slithering sneak and disgusting with trying to find legal loop holes with not showing actual pack probabilities.
Rated E For Everyone.
Comments
I've made anther thread about my pack luck this week. Over 100 opened and had 2x 84 and 3x 82 and evething else i 81 or less. I'd say 60% of my packs are 78 or below.
You are correct good sir.
A more realistic version is 100 glasses of water 1 has a drop of poison in it, each time you drink a glass if you don't die refill it shuffle them and take another glass, if you said that then yes I would confidently do that 100 times as I have done that experiment (with strawberry flavor not poison) and would happily do it again. I only got water every time.
This guy is right. If the chance on a TOTY is 1%, theres a 99% chance of not packing. If you open 100 packs, you have a chance of 0,99^100 = 36,6 percent chance of not packing a ToTY so basically 63,4% of packing a toty if you open 100 of said packs
Finally someone who did not missed class
Sorry but I disagree. The chance of packing a toty is not 1%. It's less than 1% which is intentionally extremely vague. We can't just round it off to 1% because the difference is massive.
There are 2 sides to a coin, 6 chambers in a revolver, etc. The possibilities are limited. EA doesn't tell us how many totys are available in unopened packs so the possibilities are limitless as far as we know. If we knew that there were say 100k KDBs available in the world then we could make some kind of calculation as to the chances of packing one.
Notice how promo packs are limited by time and not by amount available. Again, intentionally extremely vague.
As the op suggests, the <1% part is the biggest problem. It's just a game of chance and if it wasn't we would be the winners, not EA.
The 1% I took is just an example. We all know <1% means probably smth like 0,1%.. EA should state the REAL chance in stead of <1%.. dont even know if this is allowed
I mean, good on you for cutting out bad habits, but couldn't you have just played something else?
Or, did you honestly feel that as long as you had a way to play games you'd be unable to avoid Fifa?
It just dosent work that way, sorry but if that was the way it worked every time you played the lotto your chances of winning increase, your saying if you played 15 weeks in a row you have more chance of winning than someone who played once (which im sure you all know just isen't true) I just dont know how else to explain it to you, errrm if you enter a raffle and there are a 1000 tickets every ticket has the same chance but you woud argue that any number above 100 has a better chance as the winning number will probably have 3 numbers. In probability theory i would begrugingly agree that could be seen as correct but all tickets have a equal chance of wining in pure statistics,
Opening a fresh pack is like entering a new raffle, just because you entered the last one, do you think you have a better chance of winning this one, the thing you are not seeing is that previous results dont matter - in your examples the ones who enter the lotto evey week are most likly to win, its just not real.
If something is truly random then isn't it just as likely you'll get 10 heads in a row as you would 10 tails, or any permutation thereof?
I can tell you it’s 100% probable that this argument will be had again on these forums
if i use your example, the chances to win the English lotto is 450057474 to 1 or 0.00000022%, by your own example if i play for a 100 weeks my chance is now 0.009% this is by your math....... it just dosent seem right that just by playing every week for a hundred weeks increases my chances so much but thats what you believe.
I can statistically agree with this statement.
No, it is not. Just get a coin and flip it ten times in a row. If you get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row I will gift you a fresh TOTY Mbappe.
If you look at each coinflip or dice roll on its own then yes the probability is static - 1:2 or 1:6 but if you do them a 100 times, your likelihood of hitting heads or 6 at least once vastly improves.
The only valid argument here is that EA hides the minuscule probability behind the phrase <1% which prob means 0.01% or something meaning you’ll need a huge amount of attempts to actually hit your target at least once. Furthermore no one except probably the innermost circle in EA can actually prove that chance is even there in reality.
This is how this thread should end. Well said, nothing to add. !
If you think it does that's probability theory and i'm afraid that's just wrong.
If previous pack luck had any influence then there would have to be a set number of toty players avalible, EA have set pack luck so even they do not know how many will be avalible.
If EA have a set number of players avalible then we are trying to get players from a pool and therefore probability is correct.
I can’t believe they can argue for this simple math for so long😂😂😂
all the best
EA stilll set abysmal odds
I did my thesis of statistics vs probability at odds under 3 billion! simple maths!! its one of the hardest fields
Hahaha Castro and Bateson buy all the lightning packs! Not us
He spent over $15,000 when I watched him.
Jesus... I watched him the first day, bet he put another 15k in the next day then. Idiot!
Lol, I don't see how you having absolutely no self control is the fault of EA
EA are just lying slithering sneak and disgusting with trying to find legal loop holes with not showing actual pack probabilities.