BLACK FRIDAY EVENT |MARKET SWINGS| EXPECTATIONS| Fifa 19| HYPE

1345
Blarix
20845 posts Club Captain
DISCLAIMER: Please be aware that I'm not responsible for you either buying too early or missing the boat. This is a guide but ultimately it is for you to decide when to pull the trigger.


It's that time of the year again

What will be discussed in this thread will be the following.

--When to buy
-When to Sell
-What to expect when the actual day comes around.
-Gold players
-Icons
-Promo's
-What is different this year from last


First let's get the most basic questions out of the way before we go into a bit more details.

Q: Did you miss the crash or is the crash going to happen ?

A: To keep it simple you have not missed the crash and is going to come around soon.

Q: Why are prices rising instead of going down?

A: Prices will continue to fluctuate up and down also known as now the famous term ''Dead cat bounce''

Q: What is Dead cat bounce?

A: ''a temporary recovery in share prices after a substantial fall, caused by speculators buying in order to cover their positions.'' In other words people buying thinking they have missed or about to miss the crash.


dead-cat-bounce.jpg


This happens every year without a single fail, whether it's influenced by youtubers/streamers or forums, panic buying always get rampant for short period of time before the inevitable decline towards crash.

When to buy gold players :

-Best time to buy players under 200k is DURING promo packs as they will be packed at insane high rates, they have always been the lowest during lighting rounds (open bid is your best friend) .

-Mid tier-high level Golds will come down naturally with the market dipping.

-If you still have gold cards I would be selling them ASAP as they will come down drastically soon.

Example: Messi's price is now sitting at 770 which I believe is the lowest it has been.

Icons:

This is the one that dictates EA's income and market stability. If Icons go down too much at this time it will financially impact EA but even EA can't stop the incoming crash regarding this but you best believe they will try to counteract it with every possible move.

-Weekend league sell up hasn't started yet and I'm assuming most icon investors are slightly getting worried as prices have started to trend downwards.

Q: I'm after Prime Lampard, when do I pull the trigger?

A: Set a price you're happy with, a realistic price. Don't expect Prime lampard to drop 500k. Personally 850k would be my buy price and he will get there.




BLACK FRIDAY (THE ACTUAL DAY ITSELF)

By the time it gets to the official black friday day prices might seem they have risen drastically and you have missed the boat....but you haven't.

Black Friday: From previous years I have noticed prices are always lowest during the 100k lighting rounds across the board, as most people by this time have already bought up and with influx of new cards on the market the under cutting is a joy to watch. I include cyber Monday as part of the BF weekend and promo's will spit out bunch of new cards with not many buyers to pick up the deals, it's a very risky move but one that could benefit you the most if you time it correct.



Q:What is different this year to last?

A: Rivals, plain simple. People still want to play for rewards but it won't stop the decline it will just cause a lot of fluctuations. Lot's of coins in the market this year but with every inflation the crash is even more severe (Fifa 15 ring a bell?) .

Most important tip that I can give anyone is to SET A TARGET PRICE for the cards you want to buy and once it hits it buy and don't look back.

Comments

  • DadBod
    6302 posts Big Money Move
    Should i buy neymar and mbappe now? No ifs, no buts, no maybes
  • Blarix
    20845 posts Club Captain
    DadBod wrote: »
    Should i buy neymar and mbappe now? No ifs, no buts, no maybes

    No, the decline is just starting now.

    Set a target price, if you are happy with the target price now buy it.
  • kraid
    2901 posts Fans' Favourite
    But what should the target price be? I didn’t play till Xmas last year so not used to the whole bf thing. How much will the bigger gold nif drop? 50k? 100k?
  • wonder if EA will throw a spanner in the works via an icon squad builder or similar
  • Blarix
    20845 posts Club Captain
    kraid wrote: »
    But what should the target price be? I didn’t play till Xmas last year so not used to the whole bf thing. How much will the bigger gold nif drop? 50k? 100k?

    The target price is for you to decide.

    Let's go with Pogba for example he was on friday 440k (xbox), currently sitting at 390k that's a 50k drop before sell up has started.

    Let's say your buy price is 380k it will be for you to decide if you going to risk him going lower which he might do or you might miss him and he goes up.

  • In before every muppet says your trying to cause a crash...
  • Nice thread by the way
  • Blarix
    20845 posts Club Captain
    Adifunky wrote: »
    In before every muppet says your trying to cause a crash...

    I was going to do it couple of days ago but didn't want to cause any crash :joy:

    I waited till most/majority sold up.
    Adifunky wrote: »
    Nice thread by the way

    Thanks.
  • Blackbird10
    696 posts An Exciting Prospect
    I sold up and put all my coins into CR7. I noticed last year that November 11 was his lowest price until mid March. Hoping that with him being a striker, in arguably a league with more choice, and the more coins this year, that he’s only going to rise from here.

    In my team previously, I had Pogba, Mbappe, Ramos, Kante etc who I all see crashing.
  • hjdjydyufu
    8839 posts League Winner
    Great thread

    So I'm theory if I'm going to buy high rated NIFs like Mbappe etc I should wait a bit?

    If I'm after Icons just buy whenever
  • Futfanatic
    13977 posts Has That Special Something
    Weren’t you the guy who was wrong about the crash last year?
  • Blarix
    20845 posts Club Captain
    Futfanatic wrote: »
    Weren’t you the guy who was wrong about the crash last year?

    No, I was the guy who predicated right.

    @Campino would attest to that. You were wrong saying players will never get to the place they were previously, as data shows players were at the lowest on the black friday before promo's.

    Thanks for your valuable input.
  • Futfanatic
    13977 posts Has That Special Something
    Blarix wrote: »
    Futfanatic wrote: »
    Weren’t you the guy who was wrong about the crash last year?

    No, I was the guy who predicated right.

    @Campino would attest to that. You were wrong saying players will never get to the place they were previously, as data shows players were at the lowest on the black friday before promo's.

    Thanks for your valuable input.

    I want to buy Ronaldo fenomeno (94), should I risk it with black friday?
  • Moose Factory
    4068 posts National Call-Up
    Blarix wrote: »
    Futfanatic wrote: »
    Weren’t you the guy who was wrong about the crash last year?

    No, I was the guy who predicated right.

    @Campino would attest to that. You were wrong saying players will never get to the place they were previously, as data shows players were at the lowest on the black friday before promo's.

    Thanks for your valuable input.

    Are you at full icon squad yet mate? Curious how your squads looking now.
  • Blarix
    20845 posts Club Captain
    Blarix wrote: »
    Futfanatic wrote: »
    Weren’t you the guy who was wrong about the crash last year?

    No, I was the guy who predicated right.

    @Campino would attest to that. You were wrong saying players will never get to the place they were previously, as data shows players were at the lowest on the black friday before promo's.

    Thanks for your valuable input.

    Are you at full icon squad yet mate? Curious how your squads looking now.

    Yes, hopefully after black Friday I should be set till toty.

  • Blarix
    20845 posts Club Captain
    Futfanatic wrote: »
    Blarix wrote: »
    Futfanatic wrote: »
    Weren’t you the guy who was wrong about the crash last year?

    No, I was the guy who predicated right.

    @Campino would attest to that. You were wrong saying players will never get to the place they were previously, as data shows players were at the lowest on the black friday before promo's.

    Thanks for your valuable input.

    I want to buy Ronaldo fenomeno (94), should I risk it with black friday?

    You on xbox or PS4?

    don't know the price for ps4 but you should be able to get him for around 4.2 and lower on xbox.
  • Futfanatic
    13977 posts Has That Special Something
    Blarix wrote: »
    Futfanatic wrote: »
    Blarix wrote: »
    Futfanatic wrote: »
    Weren’t you the guy who was wrong about the crash last year?

    No, I was the guy who predicated right.

    @Campino would attest to that. You were wrong saying players will never get to the place they were previously, as data shows players were at the lowest on the black friday before promo's.

    Thanks for your valuable input.

    I want to buy Ronaldo fenomeno (94), should I risk it with black friday?

    You on xbox or PS4?

    don't know the price for ps4 but you should be able to get him for around 4.2 and lower on xbox.

    I’m on PS4.. but that price is 900k lower than right now, you must be kidding..

  • FaFiFa
    868 posts Semi-Pro
    edited November 2018
    Last year the crash before the crash happened today.Price of neymar raised 20k from 2pm till now.Let the panic buy begin
  • FaFiFa
    868 posts Semi-Pro
    By the way,some players I.e Pogba has already decreased more % from their highest price compared to last year this time
  • Gorda
    3447 posts National Call-Up
    DadBod wrote: »
    Should i buy neymar and mbappe now? No ifs, no buts, no maybes
    Yes, i bought them yesterday.
  • Hayter
    395 posts Sunday League Hero
    Good thread. First BF for me. Any tips for the people looking to trade during this time?
  • Blarix
    20845 posts Club Captain
    Futfanatic wrote: »
    Blarix wrote: »
    Futfanatic wrote: »
    Blarix wrote: »
    Futfanatic wrote: »
    Weren’t you the guy who was wrong about the crash last year?

    No, I was the guy who predicated right.

    @Campino would attest to that. You were wrong saying players will never get to the place they were previously, as data shows players were at the lowest on the black friday before promo's.

    Thanks for your valuable input.

    I want to buy Ronaldo fenomeno (94), should I risk it with black friday?

    You on xbox or PS4?

    don't know the price for ps4 but you should be able to get him for around 4.2 and lower on xbox.

    I’m on PS4.. but that price is 900k lower than right now, you must be kidding..

    R94 before weekend league sells for 4.6.

    4.9 is not his real current price.
  • Boozad
    985 posts Professional
    Just picked up Prime Puyol 350k cheaper than he’s been all week.
  • Blarix
    20845 posts Club Captain
    Hayter wrote: »
    Good thread. First BF for me. Any tips for the people looking to trade during this time?

    Pick up 86,87,88,89 cheap cards for icon set/SBC.

    EA should do some sort of TOTW repeateable sbc so 84 will be handy.
  • Hayter
    395 posts Sunday League Hero
    Blarix wrote: »
    Hayter wrote: »
    Good thread. First BF for me. Any tips for the people looking to trade during this time?

    Pick up 86,87,88,89 cheap cards for icon set/SBC.

    EA should do some sort of TOTW repeateable sbc so 84 will be handy.

    Cool thanks! What packs are released during the lightning rounds? Are they on sale a cheaper price?

    May buy some FP points and don’t want to jump on the the wrong packs
  • Blarix
    20845 posts Club Captain
    Hayter wrote: »
    Blarix wrote: »
    Hayter wrote: »
    Good thread. First BF for me. Any tips for the people looking to trade during this time?

    Pick up 86,87,88,89 cheap cards for icon set/SBC.

    EA should do some sort of TOTW repeateable sbc so 84 will be handy.

    Cool thanks! What packs are released during the lightning rounds? Are they on sale a cheaper price?

    May buy some FP points and don’t want to jump on the the wrong packs

    Buy 1 hour before promo starts prices tank as everyone is fearing the 100k packs.

    lighting rounds of 100k/50k every hour for full day.
  • Hayter
    395 posts Sunday League Hero
    Wow. Bet people go through cash. Might throw 50 quid at it but those 100k packs are very tempting
  • DailyTrader
    2143 posts Fans' Favourite
    So bale etc I shoukd buy when the price is justified but for players like modric I should wait till promos? @Blarix
  • Blarix
    20845 posts Club Captain
    Hayter wrote: »
    Wow. Bet people go through cash. Might throw 50 quid at it but those 100k packs are very tempting

    Black Friday and TOTY is their most profitable promo's each year.

    EA will bombard the market to the point you can't even stand the promo's :joy:
  • DailyTrader
    2143 posts Fans' Favourite
    The point you said that players go low again during lightning rounds. Do they apply for players like bale mbappe also?
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