TOTY Market Crash, when to sell & buy (Updated)

Comments

  • Bags
    2009 posts Fans' Favourite
    ziotree wrote: »
    The only big coin player I have is Rashford IF 88 LW.

    will he crash too as he has done nothing but rise since I got him

    Worth selling now and buying back?

    Or is bruno POTM and potential TOTY gonna keep him high

    if you go onto futbin and look at the prices for similar type of cards during TOTY you will see.

    Lets compare 1st IF Son from last year. Released end of Nov and rose out of packs (so same as Rashford). He was 400k on 3rd Jan which was about when the loading screen from TOTY appeared. By the 6th Jan he was 350k so a 25% drop or so. He then rose back above 400k by the 10th and rose steadily throughout the rest of January.

    So if Rashford is 1m now, as crazy as it sounds, he could drop to low 800's for a brief period and then rise again once TOTY goes live.

    Not sure he will get up to 1m again though but I could be wrong
  • Crash has started but will continue until a day after toty has been released where people will buy back.

    The real panic will start when toty is on the loading screen and when they are released
  • Maximus AK47
    2883 posts National Call-Up
    edited January 2021
    ziotree wrote: »
    The only big coin player I have is Rashford IF 88 LW.

    will he crash too as he has done nothing but rise since I got him

    Worth selling now and buying back?

    Or is bruno POTM and potential TOTY gonna keep him high

    I would sell mate. he might fall to 650K (xbox 800K now) or so. He will not rise of course. no chance.
  • MurkingFools
    1787 posts Fans' Favourite
    edited January 2021
    2easym8 wrote: »
    I’m so torn whether I sell NIF Ronaldo. I’ve never been one to sell during ‘crashes’ but 150k makes me think it might be a good idea.

    He’s my only expensive tradeable player..

    I would sell before the weekend sell off starts, this weekend sell is going to be bigger than normal

    Ronaldo, Neymar, Mbappe meta golds will all crash
  • MurkingFools
    1787 posts Fans' Favourite
    edited January 2021
    Swanz05 wrote: »
    What's the TOTY guesstimate date guys? Still the 25th?

    This Friday looks most likely


    Air Diddy wrote: »
    Its almost at the point where selling and re buying the Neymar, Mbappe, CR7 type cards has passed

    Unless you get a crazy low price during TOTY youll just lose out on the EA tax

    Time to sell was a month ago

    Or after TOTY when people that missed out want to re purchase

    Don’t agree, if you can get liquid or sell off your big ticket items before this weekend sell off, this will make you coins


    JWNYsg wrote: »
    What about totw players who are not in packs. Will their prices go up or down?

    Thank you

    Everything will crash, cards that are more rare will crash less compared to golds for example

    Imo rare cards will crash around 10/15% high supply cards will crash 30%


    Zefi wrote: »
    You guys reckon zanetti will drop below 600k

    Yeah I think he will be below 600k

  • Bags
    2009 posts Fans' Favourite
    Swanz05 wrote: »
    What's the TOTY guesstimate date guys? Still the 25th?

    This Friday looks most likely


    Air Diddy wrote: »
    Its almost at the point where selling and re buying the Neymar, Mbappe, CR7 type cards has passed

    Unless you get a crazy low price during TOTY youll just lose out on the EA tax

    Time to sell was a month ago

    Or after TOTY when people that missed out want to re purchase

    Don’t agree, if you can get liquid or sell off your big ticket items before this weekend sell off, this will make you coins


    JWNYsg wrote: »
    What about totw players who are not in packs. Will their prices go up or down?

    Thank you

    Everything will crash, cards that a more rare will crash less compared to golds for example

    Imo rare cards will crash around 10/15% high supply cards will crash 30%


    Zefi wrote: »
    You guys reckon zanetti will drop below 600k

    Yeah I think he will be below 600k

    According to Futbin, last year both Mbappe and Neymar dropped 10% between 2nd Jan and 4th Jan - the time TOTY was announced. Assuming during that panic there were snipping opportunities for 15% drop.

    Interestingly both then rose above their 2nd Jan prices right through to the end of Jan
  • JWNYsg
    7006 posts Big Money Move
    JWNYsg wrote: »
    What about totw players who are not in packs. Will their prices go up or down?

    Thank you

    Who are you looking at? Generally down as more new players come onto the market that can fit that role the demand drops for those cards. Unless of course it’s a card that’s getting a Toty then up once ppl realize they can’t afford the Toty

    Specifically worried about my Neuer and Kimmich IF cards if they get TOTYs
  • Mmandras
    6269 posts Big Money Move
    I'm not selling my first owner Mbappe, don't really care for the crash.
  • BK1892
    333 posts Sunday League Hero
    Wondering what to do with IF Joe Gomez. Picked him up at 390k and now he’s around 550k. Is he likely to drop?
  • Blackpoolmonster
    4806 posts Big Money Move
    Couldn't care less about losing coins, the game will be done in 7 months anyway.

    You lot can flap about all your coins, ill enjoy using players i want and not worrying about coins. Can make them back whenever anyway.
  • tommyboyo
    4221 posts National Call-Up
    Couldn't care less about losing coins, the game will be done in 7 months anyway.

    You lot can flap about all your coins, ill enjoy using players i want and not worrying about coins. Can make them back whenever anyway.

    Agreed.

    I just keep my team and play with them!!

  • ziotree
    597 posts An Exciting Prospect
    Bags wrote: »
    ziotree wrote: »
    The only big coin player I have is Rashford IF 88 LW.

    will he crash too as he has done nothing but rise since I got him

    Worth selling now and buying back?

    Or is bruno POTM and potential TOTY gonna keep him high

    if you go onto futbin and look at the prices for similar type of cards during TOTY you will see.

    Lets compare 1st IF Son from last year. Released end of Nov and rose out of packs (so same as Rashford). He was 400k on 3rd Jan which was about when the loading screen from TOTY appeared. By the 6th Jan he was 350k so a 25% drop or so. He then rose back above 400k by the 10th and rose steadily throughout the rest of January.

    So if Rashford is 1m now, as crazy as it sounds, he could drop to low 800's for a brief period and then rise again once TOTY goes live.

    Not sure he will get up to 1m again though but I could be wrong

    Thanks for explaining. However I’m scared Rashford won’t drop and I’ll end up losing coins trying buy him back 🙈
  • Skely
    980 posts Professional
    Decisions... decisions
    😂
  • Amdp9
    6831 posts Big Money Move
    Swanz05 wrote: »
    ozcs_69 wrote: »
    Swanz05 wrote: »
    Amdp9 wrote: »
    Skely wrote: »
    Market seems to be up today?
    Crash is done?... or this is the calm before the storm?
    Debating selling what I still have...

    Crash will be here more, TOTY will drop everything more by another 30%

    30%? Hope you're right & I'd love to have eg mid Gullit for around xbox 3 mil but I doubt the market gods will be that generous ;)

    lol 30% off that kind of players is absurd, but he will drop to 4.5m at some stage

    Well if we're looking at an across the board average percentage I'd be very happy with around 15 but even that's probably a bit high don't you reckon?
    edit: Who am I kidding - I'm just guessing like everyone else :D

    on ps he should drop 10% imo

    All I am waiting for Mid Pele to drop 🥶
  • Amdp9
    6831 posts Big Money Move
    First crash started past week (Mon- Tues) after TOTY voting was announced , people expected TOTY this past Friday.

    EA changed the pattern (in FIFA 20/19 there was only 1 week gap between voting and TOTY release)

    Cards went up quit high since monday .

    I guess the second crash will start this Sunday. Rock bottom will be 1 day before and during the first day of TOTY when most packs will be opened.

    Some cards will rebound a bit at the end of TOTY as people will use there coins to buy meta cards.

    Indeed
  • Jezzaaa
    545 posts An Exciting Prospect
    Amdp9 wrote: »
    Swanz05 wrote: »
    ozcs_69 wrote: »
    Swanz05 wrote: »
    Amdp9 wrote: »
    Skely wrote: »
    Market seems to be up today?
    Crash is done?... or this is the calm before the storm?
    Debating selling what I still have...

    Crash will be here more, TOTY will drop everything more by another 30%

    30%? Hope you're right & I'd love to have eg mid Gullit for around xbox 3 mil but I doubt the market gods will be that generous ;)

    lol 30% off that kind of players is absurd, but he will drop to 4.5m at some stage

    Well if we're looking at an across the board average percentage I'd be very happy with around 15 but even that's probably a bit high don't you reckon?
    edit: Who am I kidding - I'm just guessing like everyone else :D

    on ps he should drop 10% imo

    All I am waiting for Mid Pele to drop 🥶

    How much do you think he’ll be at the lowest during toty? Assuming PS prices
  • IronMike69
    273 posts Sunday League Hero
    Not gonna bother about a crash, will enjoy my prime dalglish and best as they're better than most TOTY anyway!
  • Craigy21
    822 posts Semi-Pro
    Only got 2 tradable players that being headliner Goretzka & RTTF Alaba, so not expecting them to drop much being live items
  • Swanz05
    5553 posts Big Money Move
    edited January 2021
    Couldn't care less about losing coins, the game will be done in 7 months anyway.

    You lot can flap about all your coins, ill enjoy using players i want and not worrying about coins. Can make them back whenever anyway.

    Not worried at all & yes ofc every year the game's a countdown to September. Definitely enjoying using the players I like too & will enjoy the extra ones I like that the crash will allow me to have. Trading's easy but it's a slow process so why not speed it up at times like these.
  • Dm06
    467 posts An Exciting Prospect
    Craigy21 wrote: »
    Only got 2 tradable players that being headliner Goretzka & RTTF Alaba, so not expecting them to drop much being live items

    They’ll rise a lot because they won’t have a TOTY but will link to the 3 Bayern players (Lewandowski, Kimmich and Neuer)
  • Sky Blue Army #CCFC
    156 posts Has Potential To Be Special
    Bags wrote: »
    ziotree wrote: »
    The only big coin player I have is Rashford IF 88 LW.

    will he crash too as he has done nothing but rise since I got him

    Worth selling now and buying back?

    Or is bruno POTM and potential TOTY gonna keep him high

    if you go onto futbin and look at the prices for similar type of cards during TOTY you will see.

    Lets compare 1st IF Son from last year. Released end of Nov and rose out of packs (so same as Rashford). He was 400k on 3rd Jan which was about when the loading screen from TOTY appeared. By the 6th Jan he was 350k so a 25% drop or so. He then rose back above 400k by the 10th and rose steadily throughout the rest of January.

    So if Rashford is 1m now, as crazy as it sounds, he could drop to low 800's for a brief period and then rise again once TOTY goes live.

    Not sure he will get up to 1m again though but I could be wrong

    That's only 12.5% btw
  • LiamG
    435 posts An Exciting Prospect
    I'm just hoping for 90 Stoichkov and 87 Butra to drop. Have 1.4 million for them and confident it will be enough looking at weekday prices last few weeks.
  • Cenzo180
    748 posts Professional
    Dm06 wrote: »
    Craigy21 wrote: »
    Only got 2 tradable players that being headliner Goretzka & RTTF Alaba, so not expecting them to drop much being live items

    They’ll rise a lot because they won’t have a TOTY but will link to the 3 Bayern players (Lewandowski, Kimmich and Neuer)

    That’s interesting. Was hoping alaba would drop a bit before I buy him. You think it’s certain he’ll rise?
  • Skely
    980 posts Professional
    The best part of the crash... is seen panicking,losing tons of money. Is hilarious. Just waiting for some good deals 😂
    Sell before or hold... but selling during the crash... 🤪
  • Selgarr
    1525 posts Play-Off Hero
    When's the best time to sell all of my discard gold rares?

    I am assuming it's when they release the league upgrade packs? Is that during the TOTY?

    Will they go to 2k-3k each?
  • yosef167
    3479 posts National Call-Up
    Selgarr wrote: »
    When's the best time to sell all of my discard gold rares?

    I am assuming it's when they release the league upgrade packs? Is that during the TOTY?

    Will they go to 2k-3k each?

    better 1 day after they release the League upgrade cards
    once the market get empty off them
  • MurkingFools
    1787 posts Fans' Favourite
    edited January 2021
    Friday will be the day guys, toty confirmed for Friday by ea website

    Crash will start during loading screen, at some point there probably a small bump to the market for an hour or so from liquid players buying too early, then imo I think Friday early uk time market low and that will be a good buy time
  • Fabibi94
    936 posts Professional
    Friday will be the day guys, toty confirmed for Friday by ea website

    Crash will start during loading screen, at some point there probably a small bump to the market for an hour or so from liquid players buying too early, then imo I think Friday early uk time market low and that will be a good buy time

    When does the loading screen usually come up tho? I think it may result in a huge dip which could be bigger than the crash on TOTY date itself.
  • Oliver Powell
    2911 posts Fans' Favourite
    Untradable life B)
  • MurkingFools
    1787 posts Fans' Favourite
    Fabibi94 wrote: »
    Friday will be the day guys, toty confirmed for Friday by ea website

    Crash will start during loading screen, at some point there probably a small bump to the market for an hour or so from liquid players buying too early, then imo I think Friday early uk time market low and that will be a good buy time

    When does the loading screen usually come up tho? I think it may result in a huge dip which could be bigger than the crash on TOTY date itself.

    Loading screen could be later today or tomorrow,

    the loading screen is part of the same toty crash
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