TOTY Counter Starts!

SuperJames9005
3355 posts National Call-Up
I have seen many people here saying there’s no point in saving packs because you will never pack a TOTY in the last a few days. Well last year the grind comes out with Hakimi Cancelo Jorginho Donnarumma and this year we start with Theo! Again, you gonna be in it to win it😄

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Comments

  • Mogga
    3677 posts National Call-Up
    edited January 25
    Is that the SBC they just released tonight? 🤔

    U horded that one for a full 23 minutes 🤣
  • SuperJames9005
    3355 posts National Call-Up
    Mogga wrote: »
    Is that the SBC they just released tonight? 🤔

    U horded that one for a full 23 minutes 🤣

    Oh yeah. That's the new one.

    But the point is that a lot of people don't believe TOTY is very packable these days anyways :D

    I am pretty sure we gonna come out with more with saved packs.
  • SpiderMonkeybpg
    4069 posts National Call-Up
    Mogga wrote: »
    Is that the SBC they just released tonight? 🤔

    U horded that one for a full 23 minutes 🤣

    Oh yeah. That's the new one.

    But the point is that a lot of people don't believe TOTY is very packable these days anyways :D

    I am pretty sure we gonna come out with more with saved packs.

    Agree
  • Wisey
    378 posts Sunday League Hero
    I have seen many people here saying there’s no point in saving packs because you will never pack a TOTY in the last a few days. Well last year the grind comes out with Hakimi Cancelo Jorginho Donnarumma and this year we start with Theo! Again, you gonna be in it to win it😄

    Which SBC from tonight?
  • BasketCase9483
    1302 posts Professional
    Mogga wrote: »
    Is that the SBC they just released tonight? 🤔

    U horded that one for a full 23 minutes 🤣

    Oh yeah. That's the new one.

    But the point is that a lot of people don't believe TOTY is very packable these days anyways :D

    I am pretty sure we gonna come out with more with saved packs.

    They still have an insanely low pack weight like always.

    Last year I packed a couple of TOTY cards but spent about 2 mil in upgrades to do it.
  • ICE_UP_SON
    1769 posts Play-Off Hero
    edited January 25
    All comes down to luck. I’ve opened thousands of packs for TOTY and have only ever pulled 1.
  • SuperJames9005
    3355 posts National Call-Up
    Wisey wrote: »
    I have seen many people here saying there’s no point in saving packs because you will never pack a TOTY in the last a few days. Well last year the grind comes out with Hakimi Cancelo Jorginho Donnarumma and this year we start with Theo! Again, you gonna be in it to win it😄

    Which SBC from tonight?

    3x83 defenders pack just released
  • SuperJames9005
    3355 posts National Call-Up
    ICE_UP_SON wrote: »
    All comes down to luck. I’ve opened thousands of packs for TOTY and have only ever pulled 1.

    That’s very true but with let’s say 500 packs saved and each with 1% possibility, the chance of hitting at least 1 TOTY is like 99.35%.
  • SuperJames9005
    3355 posts National Call-Up
    Mogga wrote: »
    Is that the SBC they just released tonight? 🤔

    U horded that one for a full 23 minutes 🤣

    Oh yeah. That's the new one.

    But the point is that a lot of people don't believe TOTY is very packable these days anyways :D

    I am pretty sure we gonna come out with more with saved packs.

    They still have an insanely low pack weight like always.

    Last year I packed a couple of TOTY cards but spent about 2 mil in upgrades to do it.

    Yup see the calculation above, even with only 100 pack, you still have 63.5% of hitting at least one TOTY.
  • number7rocky
    9278 posts League Winner
    edited January 25
    ICE_UP_SON wrote: »
    All comes down to luck. I’ve opened thousands of packs for TOTY and have only ever pulled 1.

    That’s very true but with let’s say 500 packs saved and each with 1% possibility, the chance of hitting at least 1 TOTY is like 99.35%.

    Pretty sure probability don't work like that 😂 obviously if your opening alot there's a bigger chance you will hit something eventually
  • SuperJames9005
    3355 posts National Call-Up
    ICE_UP_SON wrote: »
    All comes down to luck. I’ve opened thousands of packs for TOTY and have only ever pulled 1.

    That’s very true but with let’s say 500 packs saved and each with 1% possibility, the chance of hitting at least 1 TOTY is like 99.35%.

    Pretty sure probability don't work like that 😂 obviously if your opening alot there's a bigger chance you will hit something eventually

    That’s the way it works 1-(.99^500), as simple as that.
  • Captain_Emirate
    2448 posts Fans' Favourite
    Even icons pop up in 75+ pp which never happened before. EA is giving people a card cost more than million coins in cheap packs and they are saying it is hard to pack toty ! Next week we will see honorable mentions cards and there were be more cards in packs to pull.
  • Redlad
    2456 posts Fans' Favourite
    If you’re on the red list, you’re on the red list. If you’re not, you’re not.
  • PaulDr
    4357 posts National Call-Up
    edited January 25
    Good for you, two years in a row is great luck. Spare a thought for those who saved hundreds year on year and never packed one.
  • SuperJames9005
    3355 posts National Call-Up
    PaulDr wrote: »
    Good for you, two years in a row is great luck. Spare a thought for those who saved hundreds year on year and never packed one.

    No the aim of the thread is just to show the grind will eventually pay off. After all, it’s a probability game and when the number is big enough, it’s hard to not pack sth. good.

    There might or might not be the red list thing, but I highly doubt EA will blacklist any customer so even with their claimed low probability, it’s still viable to pack some.
  • ICE_UP_SON
    1769 posts Play-Off Hero
    ICE_UP_SON wrote: »
    All comes down to luck. I’ve opened thousands of packs for TOTY and have only ever pulled 1.

    That’s very true but with let’s say 500 packs saved and each with 1% possibility, the chance of hitting at least 1 TOTY is like 99.35%.

    Pretty sure probability don't work like that 😂 obviously if your opening alot there's a bigger chance you will hit something eventually

    Yeah, using the parameters he gave, his probability is correct. Despite that I never pack one even when crafting thousands of packs 😂.
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