Asian World Cup qualifiers lounge

CHYP2074
2598 posts Fans' Favourite
edited May 2021
So I'm from Lebanon and I always liked these qualifiers to be fair. If you're from an Asian country or follow these this is where to post.
In our group, currently, it's very messy. First, we've 3 games remaining against Sri Lanka 5th of June, Turkmenistan 9th of June, and South Korea 13th of June. What we're aiming for is finishing among the second-place teams and hopefully doing better than the other second-place teams and make it to round 3. Do I expect to make it to the WC? No but round 3 would be good progress.
The reason why our group is messy is because North Korea withdrew and the points got taken off from each team who played vs North Korea, and the rest of the games got canceled. Now I don't know if this is going to come back and bite us for the tiebreaks with the other 2nd places but at least we didn't lose much because they surprised us by beating us and drawing us, despite us beating them 4-1 and 5-0 in the past.
Here are the standings currently:
lebanongroup.png
It's looking good, but beating Turkmenistan would be the key. Pretty confident about Sri, and pretty desperate about South Korea away, (good we drew them at home though)

Discuss
Post edited by CHYP2074 on

Comments

  • CHYP2074
    2598 posts Fans' Favourite
    edited June 2021
    I assume most people don't know how these work so I thought I'd inform all of you guys.

    Round 1:

    Round 1 is exclusive for the 12 worst teams according to the Coca-Cola FIFA rankings at the time the draw is being made. They play two-legged drawn games to determine the 6 teams that will make it through

    The teams who made it through this time around are Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Guam, Malaysia, Mongolia, and Bangladesh.

    Round 2:

    All the teams have to participate in round 2 unless you already got knocked out of round 3. Yes, even the hosts Qatar.

    The 40 teams left are divided into 8 groups of 5. The first place of every group makes it to the next round AND the four best second-place teams (points; goal differential; goals for) move on to the third round.

    Round 3:

    There are 12 teams left, they're divided into two groups of 6. The first and second of each group automatically qualify for the world cup. The third-place teams move on to the play-offs

    Continental play-offs:

    In Asia, continental play-offs are 3rd place Group A (round 3) vs 3rd place Group B (Round 3)

    The winner doesn't quite move on to the world cup though.

    Intercontinental play-offs:

    The intercontinental play-offs have 4 teams from different continents (First in Oceania qualifiers, 5th in South America, the team we talked about from Asia, and another team from North America.

    They get drawn against each other and whoever wins their game goes through to the World Cup.

    Example:

    Round 1:

    A) 1 vs 2

    B ) 3 vs 4

    C) 5 vs 6

    D) 7 vs 8

    E) 9 vs 10

    F) 11 vs 12

    Round 4:

    8 groups of 5 including the winners of games A to F.

    Let's take the example of a group

    1) A

    2) B

    3) C

    4) D

    5) E

    A automatically qualifies to round 3 (Also to the Asian Cup mind you)

    C, D, and E are out.

    B has a chance:

    Table of 2nd place teams:

    1) A

    2) B

    3) C

    4) D

    5) E

    6) F

    7) G

    8) H

    Teams A, B, C, and D make it through to round 3:

    Round 3:

    Group A: Group B:

    1) A 1) I

    2) B 2) J

    3) C 3) K

    4) D 4) L

    5) E 5) M

    6) F 6) N

    A, B, I and J make it to the world cup automatically.

    C and K have a chance

    Continental play-offs:

    C vs K

    Let's assume C wins.

    C has a chance, K is out

    Intercontinental play-offs:

    C from Asia vs A from South America

    B from North America vs D from Oceania

    Winners of these games make it to the World Cup

    I hope to have made it clear
  • CHYP2074
    2598 posts Fans' Favourite
    edited June 2021
    So we beat Sri Lanka on June 5th, 3-2. Disappointing performance but the three points are big. South Korea defeated Turkmenistan 5-0 which means that:
    ++ We're guaranteed at least 2nd place in our group
    ++ Turkmenistan is in really bad form and we're playing them
    However:
    -- Our offensive trio will have to be absent vs Turkmenistan because:
    A) Hassan Maatouk picked up an injury in an AFC Cup game with Al-Ansar
    B ) Bassel Jradi has COVID
    C) Hilal el-Helwe accumulated yellow cards

    We do have backups though.
    Beating Turkmenistan means that we will 99% make it to round 3. But it's tough because conceding 2 goals vs Sri Lanka yes the first goal was early so we weren't focused, and the second one was a bad penalty goal but they're the worst team in our group by far (18 goals conceded, 2 goals scored). Turkmenistan is much better than Sri Lanka so what are we leaving for that game if we produce the same performance. However we also have odds.
    Good luck boys
  • CHYP2074
    2598 posts Fans' Favourite
    Also a quick update on how the tiebreaks will work
    Second placed teams will lose the points they picked up vs 5th placed teams from group A to G to make every group consist of 4 teams. This gives us an advantage (we lose one point we got to North Korea, and the other teams lose 6 because the 5th placed team gets withdrawn and not one of the contenders like DPRNK).
    Is this fair for the other teams? No but I don't think they had a different way to do it
  • CHYP2074
    2598 posts Fans' Favourite
    Nem wrote: »

    Glad someone commented. Very interesting. Do you reckon Iraq will finish in first or bottle it vs Iran?
  • CHYP2074
    2598 posts Fans' Favourite
    We have a game today vs Turkmenistan. We're already guaranteed 2nd place but only 5 2nds make it through. We need to beat Turkmenistan to guarantee a round 3 ticket.
    Turkmenistan comes from a really bad loss to South Korea 5-0. I really thought they were bette than that but it was only their goalkeeper who was playing. I am somewhat confident depending on the line-up.
    Speaking of line-up it seems we;re playing another 4-5-1? I don't know weird. We have 3 CBs (one of them potentially at full-back) and the same midfield forumla with a DM and two CAMs like last time around. Not a big fan but ey. Our attack trio isn't playing (Maatouk is injured, El-Helwe accumulated yellow cards, and Jradi was in touch with someone who has COVID so he has to stay quarantined for 14 days). I hope our back-ups do the job.
    Some changes that are worth noting:
    Alexander Melki over Shibriko
    Hussain Monther over Rabih Ataya
    Sony Saad over Hilal El-Helwe (was available last time around).
  • CHYP2074
    2598 posts Fans' Favourite
    1-0 Turkmenistan :(
  • CHYP2074
    2598 posts Fans' Favourite
    OMG we scored 2, Rabih Ataya and Sony Saad 2-1. That's the beauty of national pride when your country isn't that good but it has some talent
  • CHYP2074
    2598 posts Fans' Favourite
    How the f* did we bottle this
  • CHYP2074
    2598 posts Fans' Favourite
    edited June 2021
    Lebanon can still advance to the third round of the 2022 FIFA World Cup qualifiers even after the 3-2 loss against Turkmenistan.

    The first scenario is to win vs South Korea on June 13.

    The second scenario is to wait for favorable results from other groups, in order to be among the best five-places runners-up.

    Lebanon has now 10 points and a goaldifference of +4 in the table of the runner-ups

    In Group A, China has 7 points and a goaldifference of +6. They will face Maldives and Syria. Most likely China will have at least 10 points and a better goaldifference than Lebanon.


    In Group B, the best result is a draw between Jordan and Kuwait. In this way, Lebanon might have more points than Jordan or Kuwait. If from this meeting, a winner emerge, the goaldifference will be crucial.

    In Group C, if Iraq wins Iran, Lebanon will have one more point than Iran.

    In Group D, Uzbekistan has a better goaldifference than us. The best result is a win from Saudi Arabia against Uzbekistan. By this way, Lebanon will have at least one more point than Uzbekistan.

    In Group E, Oman will have most likely 12 points.



    In Group F, Tajikistan won’t reach 10 points.

    In Group G, there are two scenarios. The first scenario is a draw between Vietnam and Malaysia, and a defeat of Vietnam against UAE. Lebanon will therefore have more points than Vietnam, the runner ups of that group. The second scenario is a defeat of UAE against Vietnam — therefore UAE will stay second with 9 points.

    Post edited by CHYP2074 on
  • Tornado31619
    30879 posts National Team Captain
    Big up Kuwait
  • yosef167
    3459 posts National Call-Up
    As a kid i have always watched Asian football and its interesting to see some news about the teams and how they developed
    happy to see Palestine as A Native palestinian even when they are in Hard condition playing and gaining a not bad 7 points and posibble 10 points if they beat Yemen .. never watched the games as my time ia killed but always looked after the results
    Good luck for lebanon ❤
  • CHYP2074
    2598 posts Fans' Favourite
    yosef167 wrote: »
    As a kid i have always watched Asian football and its interesting to see some news about the teams and how they developed
    happy to see Palestine as A Native palestinian even when they are in Hard condition playing and gaining a not bad 7 points and posibble 10 points if they beat Yemen .. never watched the games as my time ia killed but always looked after the results
    Good luck for lebanon ❤

    Thank you ❤. Good luck for Palestine for future events too and I really hope the situation in Palestine improves
  • CHYP2074
    2598 posts Fans' Favourite
    I know everyone cares about the Euros and GGs to Italy great win today.
    However a key result just happened in Asia. Jordan 0-0 Kuwait and this gives Lebanon veryy high odds of making it. We're waiting for Saudi Arabia to beat Uzebakistan (easily expected) and Australia to beat Jordan (also easily expected) at this point
  • CHYP2074
    2598 posts Fans' Favourite
    Is it me or we're beating South Korea 1-0 :open_mouth:
  • CHYP2074
    2598 posts Fans' Favourite
    I should have known we'd concede two unlucky goals.
    Man we really should be rewarded by favourable results
  • CHYP2074
    2598 posts Fans' Favourite
    We lost 2-1. Let's hope Saudi Arabia and Australia give us what we deserve which is qualifying. The fact that we put up such a fight against the best team in Asia is just amazing.
  • CHYP2074
    2598 posts Fans' Favourite
    It's official! All of that happened and Lebanon made it through!! 2nd time in history!
    I might update everything tommorrow
  • CHYP2074
    2598 posts Fans' Favourite
    So there were four important games we were waiting for:
    So Lebanon lost their last two games but accurate calculations suggested that it was still very possible for them to qualify to predict the outcome of today's games.

    So we needed two losses by second-placed teams in bold (Jordan could draw because we had a better goal differential, here are the results:

    Iran 1-0 Iraq

    UAE3-0 Vietnam

    Jordan 0-1 Australia (optimal result)

    Uzbekistan 0-3 Saudi Arabia (optimal result)

    And this is how Lebanon makes it to round 3 by finishing as the 5th best second placed team, so they're the 12th team to make it out of 12 ha!
    Table of 2nd placed teams:
    2ndplacedteams.png
    It's 5 teams making it through because host Qatar is participating in round 3 for Asian Cup Qualifiers (combined) and they won't play in round 3 despite them finishing first because they already made it since they got confirmed as hosts.

    Teams qualified for round 3:
    • South Korea
    • Iran
    • Syria
    • Japan
    • Australia
    • UAE
    • Saudi Arabia
    • Oman
    • Lebanon
    • China
    • Vietnam
    • Iraq

    Round 2 is over now this thread will be back in September for round 3
  • CHYP2074
    2598 posts Fans' Favourite
    Bump it's back!
    We drew UAE 0-0 solid
    Oman surprisingly beat Japan, South Korea failed to beat Iraq. Iran beating Syria.
    On-going games are Australia China with Australia pretty comfily winning. Saudi surprisingly losing as well. Lots os surprises
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