Using Expected stats in real football

1
EA_Andy
3130 posts EA Community Manager
edited September 9
If you want to have a genuine discussion about it feel free to use this thread :)

Comments

  • Keano
    12778 posts Has That Special Something
    @SDoofus

    Think you should write up your stuff on it again for those willing to read through & understand what it means before commenting on such stuff, interesting stats (but obviously not the be all end all in a game).
  • TakeItSlow
    7182 posts Big Money Move
    Very interesting topic, I feel it adds a lot to the game. But personally prefer just watching football.
  • TakeItSlow
    7182 posts Big Money Move
    Ahmer50x wrote: »
    Problem I have with watching football by itself is that your eyes only see what your mind wants to see. If I want Pepe to be ****, every mistake sticks in my head more. If I want James to be amazing, more mistakes are forgotten.

    It's just human nature. As fans, we're not impartial.

    xG, xGA, shots per 90, possession numbers, and cross accuracy have no partisan loyalties.

    Whilst you make a good point I believe its pretty easy to see when a player is going to be good or is good. And when a player is getting a lot of things in their favour to create a falseness.
  • Keano
    12778 posts Has That Special Something
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    Ahmer50x wrote: »
    Problem I have with watching football by itself is that your eyes only see what your mind wants to see. If I want Pepe to be ****, every mistake sticks in my head more. If I want James to be amazing, more mistakes are forgotten.

    It's just human nature. As fans, we're not impartial.

    xG, xGA, shots per 90, possession numbers, and cross accuracy have no partisan loyalties.

    Whilst you make a good point I believe its pretty easy to see when a player is going to be good or is good. And when a player is getting a lot of things in their favour to create a falseness.

    Some would say, that is exactly what @Ahmer50x is on about, obviously you're also on about Pepe & James as you've stated many times about them both. Difference being, you'll let Pepe slide when he's done nothing, & James you'll write off, call this that & the other yet he has 3 goals?

    As Ahmer said, you see what you want to see & bias plays a huge impact on your statement, considering you've also said all that matters is if you score.... which James has, 3 times.
  • LFC Simon 98
    16665 posts World Class
    Ahmer50x wrote: »
    Problem I have with watching football by itself is that your eyes only see what your mind wants to see. If I want Pepe to be ****, every mistake sticks in my head more. If I want James to be amazing, more mistakes are forgotten.

    It's just human nature. As fans, we're not impartial.

    xG, xGA, shots per 90, possession numbers, and cross accuracy have no partisan loyalties.

    This. I’ll rave about Salah all day long (and have for the past 2 years) but will always get hit with either 1. He’s a diver, 2. He’s selfish and 3. He’s not that good at dribbling (this one is bizarre to me but I hear it often)

    Yes he’s gone down a few times much to easy but only once last season did he actually get a pen for a dive. (Not condoning it just making a point). 2. Yes he’s selfish, and what, you don’t break a league scoring record without being selfish. A lot of people mistake selfishness with confidence in football. Aguero/Ronaldo/Kane all often shoot when there’s a better option but their goal scoring records can’t be argued and therefor you gotta let them do it. 3. He may not be Messi or Hazard but he can leave people for dead as easy as you like (ask David Luiz)

    Point I love watching the games and enjoying it but love looking at stats after to get a proper look at how a player performed. Plenty of games Liverpool fans (early on) were left wondering what does Fabinho really do. Then you check stats and he’s getting the most tackles and recoveries every game we play. He’s started 32 league games. Won 27 and drawn 5. That’s the type of thing you start to realise hmm, maybe the eye test doesn’t tell everything.

    I know this post isn’t quite xpg related but of similar ilk.
  • TakeItSlow
    7182 posts Big Money Move
    Keano wrote: »
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    Ahmer50x wrote: »
    Problem I have with watching football by itself is that your eyes only see what your mind wants to see. If I want Pepe to be ****, every mistake sticks in my head more. If I want James to be amazing, more mistakes are forgotten.

    It's just human nature. As fans, we're not impartial.

    xG, xGA, shots per 90, possession numbers, and cross accuracy have no partisan loyalties.

    Whilst you make a good point I believe its pretty easy to see when a player is going to be good or is good. And when a player is getting a lot of things in their favour to create a falseness.

    Some would say, that is exactly what @Ahmer50x is on about, obviously you're also on about Pepe & James as you've stated many times about them both. Difference being, you'll let Pepe slide when he's done nothing, & James you'll write off, call this that & the other yet he has 3 goals?

    As Ahmer said, you see what you want to see & bias plays a huge impact on your statement, considering you've also said all that matters is if you score.... which James has, 3 times.

    Casing point with you saying "when Pepe's done nothing" not just Pepe but in general just because a player isn't scoring or assisting doesn't mean he isn't doing anything. From the eye test you can see what Pepe's doing movement wise if you watch our full games. Just an example.
  • SDoofus
    4745 posts National Call-Up
    Keano wrote: »
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    Ahmer50x wrote: »
    Problem I have with watching football by itself is that your eyes only see what your mind wants to see. If I want Pepe to be ****, every mistake sticks in my head more. If I want James to be amazing, more mistakes are forgotten.

    It's just human nature. As fans, we're not impartial.

    xG, xGA, shots per 90, possession numbers, and cross accuracy have no partisan loyalties.

    Whilst you make a good point I believe its pretty easy to see when a player is going to be good or is good. And when a player is getting a lot of things in their favour to create a falseness.

    Some would say, that is exactly what @Ahmer50x is on about, obviously you're also on about Pepe & James as you've stated many times about them both. Difference being, you'll let Pepe slide when he's done nothing, & James you'll write off, call this that & the other yet he has 3 goals?

    As Ahmer said, you see what you want to see & bias plays a huge impact on your statement, considering you've also said all that matters is if you score.... which James has, 3 times.

    That's what is especially hilarious. The way @TakeItSlow shuts down the meaningfulness of xStats, saying that it's a load of rubbish and all that matters is the actual points/goals, whereas this very same dude will slate James, who has 3 goals, and raise Pepe to the heavens, who has done **** all. You couldn't make this **** up.
  • TakeItSlow
    7182 posts Big Money Move
    SDoofus wrote: »
    Keano wrote: »
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    Ahmer50x wrote: »
    Problem I have with watching football by itself is that your eyes only see what your mind wants to see. If I want Pepe to be ****, every mistake sticks in my head more. If I want James to be amazing, more mistakes are forgotten.

    It's just human nature. As fans, we're not impartial.

    xG, xGA, shots per 90, possession numbers, and cross accuracy have no partisan loyalties.

    Whilst you make a good point I believe its pretty easy to see when a player is going to be good or is good. And when a player is getting a lot of things in their favour to create a falseness.

    Some would say, that is exactly what @Ahmer50x is on about, obviously you're also on about Pepe & James as you've stated many times about them both. Difference being, you'll let Pepe slide when he's done nothing, & James you'll write off, call this that & the other yet he has 3 goals?

    As Ahmer said, you see what you want to see & bias plays a huge impact on your statement, considering you've also said all that matters is if you score.... which James has, 3 times.

    That's what is especially hilarious. The way @TakeItSlow shuts down the meaningfulness of xStats, saying that it's a load of rubbish and all that matters is the actual points/goals, whereas this very same dude will slate James, who has 3 goals, and raise Pepe to the heavens, who has done **** all. You couldn't make this **** up.

    Lets not start shouting and swearing, its a good topic.

    James - goal against Chelsea when the game was won. Goal against Palace to ultimately lose 2-1. Goal against Southampton to draw 1-1.

    James goals have mainly been meaningless. His performances relatively meh in terms of eye test. Just because he's scored, doesn't mean he's had top level performances.

    You make the same argument as to why Firmino is so brilliant, the same argument you make for Firmino is the same one you make against Pepe. Its odd but you're entitled to it, i wish you all the best.
  • LFC Simon 98
    16665 posts World Class
    Opening goal of the game vs Saints and 88th minute equaliser = meaningless. What?
  • Apollo
    14269 posts Has That Special Something
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    SDoofus wrote: »
    Keano wrote: »
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    Ahmer50x wrote: »
    Problem I have with watching football by itself is that your eyes only see what your mind wants to see. If I want Pepe to be ****, every mistake sticks in my head more. If I want James to be amazing, more mistakes are forgotten.

    It's just human nature. As fans, we're not impartial.

    xG, xGA, shots per 90, possession numbers, and cross accuracy have no partisan loyalties.

    Whilst you make a good point I believe its pretty easy to see when a player is going to be good or is good. And when a player is getting a lot of things in their favour to create a falseness.

    Some would say, that is exactly what @Ahmer50x is on about, obviously you're also on about Pepe & James as you've stated many times about them both. Difference being, you'll let Pepe slide when he's done nothing, & James you'll write off, call this that & the other yet he has 3 goals?

    As Ahmer said, you see what you want to see & bias plays a huge impact on your statement, considering you've also said all that matters is if you score.... which James has, 3 times.

    That's what is especially hilarious. The way @TakeItSlow shuts down the meaningfulness of xStats, saying that it's a load of rubbish and all that matters is the actual points/goals, whereas this very same dude will slate James, who has 3 goals, and raise Pepe to the heavens, who has done **** all. You couldn't make this **** up.

    Lets not start shouting and swearing, its a good topic.

    James - goal against Chelsea when the game was won. Goal against Palace to ultimately lose 2-1. Goal against Southampton to draw 1-1.

    James goals have mainly been meaningless. His performances relatively meh in terms of eye test. Just because he's scored, doesn't mean he's had top level performances.

    You make the same argument as to why Firmino is so brilliant, the same argument you make for Firmino is the same one you make against Pepe. Its odd but you're entitled to it, i wish you all the best.

    No goal is meaningless. We lost the title on goal difference, remember. James is performing well and has scored 3 goals in 4 games. He is actually being productive for his team.
  • Keano
    12778 posts Has That Special Something
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    Keano wrote: »
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    Ahmer50x wrote: »
    Problem I have with watching football by itself is that your eyes only see what your mind wants to see. If I want Pepe to be ****, every mistake sticks in my head more. If I want James to be amazing, more mistakes are forgotten.

    It's just human nature. As fans, we're not impartial.

    xG, xGA, shots per 90, possession numbers, and cross accuracy have no partisan loyalties.

    Whilst you make a good point I believe its pretty easy to see when a player is going to be good or is good. And when a player is getting a lot of things in their favour to create a falseness.

    Some would say, that is exactly what @Ahmer50x is on about, obviously you're also on about Pepe & James as you've stated many times about them both. Difference being, you'll let Pepe slide when he's done nothing, & James you'll write off, call this that & the other yet he has 3 goals?

    As Ahmer said, you see what you want to see & bias plays a huge impact on your statement, considering you've also said all that matters is if you score.... which James has, 3 times.

    Casing point with you saying "when Pepe's done nothing" not just Pepe but in general just because a player isn't scoring or assisting doesn't mean he isn't doing anything. From the eye test you can see what Pepe's doing movement wise if you watch our full games. Just an example.

    The "pepe's done nothing" comment was based on what you say... as in, if you don't score you've done nothing (as stats arn't important), so you fell right into that one.
    SDoofus wrote: »
    Keano wrote: »
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    Ahmer50x wrote: »
    Problem I have with watching football by itself is that your eyes only see what your mind wants to see. If I want Pepe to be ****, every mistake sticks in my head more. If I want James to be amazing, more mistakes are forgotten.

    It's just human nature. As fans, we're not impartial.

    xG, xGA, shots per 90, possession numbers, and cross accuracy have no partisan loyalties.

    Whilst you make a good point I believe its pretty easy to see when a player is going to be good or is good. And when a player is getting a lot of things in their favour to create a falseness.

    Some would say, that is exactly what @Ahmer50x is on about, obviously you're also on about Pepe & James as you've stated many times about them both. Difference being, you'll let Pepe slide when he's done nothing, & James you'll write off, call this that & the other yet he has 3 goals?

    As Ahmer said, you see what you want to see & bias plays a huge impact on your statement, considering you've also said all that matters is if you score.... which James has, 3 times.

    That's what is especially hilarious. The way @TakeItSlow shuts down the meaningfulness of xStats, saying that it's a load of rubbish and all that matters is the actual points/goals, whereas this very same dude will slate James, who has 3 goals, and raise Pepe to the heavens, who has done **** all. You couldn't make this **** up.

    Exactly, as I said above, he fell straight into my post by replying how he did, so i'll call that checkmate.
  • SDoofus
    4745 posts National Call-Up
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    SDoofus wrote: »
    Keano wrote: »
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    Ahmer50x wrote: »
    Problem I have with watching football by itself is that your eyes only see what your mind wants to see. If I want Pepe to be ****, every mistake sticks in my head more. If I want James to be amazing, more mistakes are forgotten.

    It's just human nature. As fans, we're not impartial.

    xG, xGA, shots per 90, possession numbers, and cross accuracy have no partisan loyalties.

    Whilst you make a good point I believe its pretty easy to see when a player is going to be good or is good. And when a player is getting a lot of things in their favour to create a falseness.

    Some would say, that is exactly what @Ahmer50x is on about, obviously you're also on about Pepe & James as you've stated many times about them both. Difference being, you'll let Pepe slide when he's done nothing, & James you'll write off, call this that & the other yet he has 3 goals?

    As Ahmer said, you see what you want to see & bias plays a huge impact on your statement, considering you've also said all that matters is if you score.... which James has, 3 times.

    That's what is especially hilarious. The way @TakeItSlow shuts down the meaningfulness of xStats, saying that it's a load of rubbish and all that matters is the actual points/goals, whereas this very same dude will slate James, who has 3 goals, and raise Pepe to the heavens, who has done **** all. You couldn't make this **** up.

    Lets not start shouting and swearing, its a good topic.

    James - goal against Chelsea when the game was won. Goal against Palace to ultimately lose 2-1. Goal against Southampton to draw 1-1.

    James goals have mainly been meaningless. His performances relatively meh in terms of eye test. Just because he's scored, doesn't mean he's had top level performances.

    You make the same argument as to why Firmino is so brilliant, the same argument you make for Firmino is the same one you make against Pepe. Its odd but you're entitled to it, i wish you all the best.

    Pepe can't even score meaningless goals, let alone meaningful ones, so I am not sure why you're using that against James.

    Popping up with a goal when you're not performing your best is a trait not to be sniffed at either. Salah often drops a stinker but still scores.

    I'd be more concerned about a player "playing well" but not scoring, than a player playing poorly but still grabbing goals, to be honest.

    Your last comment about my argument with regards to Firmino and Pepe made no sense, so I'm not going to respond.
  • TakeItSlow
    7182 posts Big Money Move
    Apollo wrote: »
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    SDoofus wrote: »
    Keano wrote: »
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    Ahmer50x wrote: »
    Problem I have with watching football by itself is that your eyes only see what your mind wants to see. If I want Pepe to be ****, every mistake sticks in my head more. If I want James to be amazing, more mistakes are forgotten.

    It's just human nature. As fans, we're not impartial.

    xG, xGA, shots per 90, possession numbers, and cross accuracy have no partisan loyalties.

    Whilst you make a good point I believe its pretty easy to see when a player is going to be good or is good. And when a player is getting a lot of things in their favour to create a falseness.

    Some would say, that is exactly what @Ahmer50x is on about, obviously you're also on about Pepe & James as you've stated many times about them both. Difference being, you'll let Pepe slide when he's done nothing, & James you'll write off, call this that & the other yet he has 3 goals?

    As Ahmer said, you see what you want to see & bias plays a huge impact on your statement, considering you've also said all that matters is if you score.... which James has, 3 times.

    That's what is especially hilarious. The way @TakeItSlow shuts down the meaningfulness of xStats, saying that it's a load of rubbish and all that matters is the actual points/goals, whereas this very same dude will slate James, who has 3 goals, and raise Pepe to the heavens, who has done **** all. You couldn't make this **** up.

    Lets not start shouting and swearing, its a good topic.

    James - goal against Chelsea when the game was won. Goal against Palace to ultimately lose 2-1. Goal against Southampton to draw 1-1.

    James goals have mainly been meaningless. His performances relatively meh in terms of eye test. Just because he's scored, doesn't mean he's had top level performances.

    You make the same argument as to why Firmino is so brilliant, the same argument you make for Firmino is the same one you make against Pepe. Its odd but you're entitled to it, i wish you all the best.

    No goal is meaningless. We lost the title on goal difference, remember. James is performing well and has scored 3 goals in 4 games. He is actually being productive for his team.

    We'll agree to disagree. Will wait and see at least 10 games in regarding any new signing :)
  • TakeItSlow
    7182 posts Big Money Move
    SDoofus wrote: »
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    SDoofus wrote: »
    Keano wrote: »
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    Ahmer50x wrote: »
    Problem I have with watching football by itself is that your eyes only see what your mind wants to see. If I want Pepe to be ****, every mistake sticks in my head more. If I want James to be amazing, more mistakes are forgotten.

    It's just human nature. As fans, we're not impartial.

    xG, xGA, shots per 90, possession numbers, and cross accuracy have no partisan loyalties.

    Whilst you make a good point I believe its pretty easy to see when a player is going to be good or is good. And when a player is getting a lot of things in their favour to create a falseness.

    Some would say, that is exactly what @Ahmer50x is on about, obviously you're also on about Pepe & James as you've stated many times about them both. Difference being, you'll let Pepe slide when he's done nothing, & James you'll write off, call this that & the other yet he has 3 goals?

    As Ahmer said, you see what you want to see & bias plays a huge impact on your statement, considering you've also said all that matters is if you score.... which James has, 3 times.

    That's what is especially hilarious. The way @TakeItSlow shuts down the meaningfulness of xStats, saying that it's a load of rubbish and all that matters is the actual points/goals, whereas this very same dude will slate James, who has 3 goals, and raise Pepe to the heavens, who has done **** all. You couldn't make this **** up.

    Lets not start shouting and swearing, its a good topic.

    James - goal against Chelsea when the game was won. Goal against Palace to ultimately lose 2-1. Goal against Southampton to draw 1-1.

    James goals have mainly been meaningless. His performances relatively meh in terms of eye test. Just because he's scored, doesn't mean he's had top level performances.

    You make the same argument as to why Firmino is so brilliant, the same argument you make for Firmino is the same one you make against Pepe. Its odd but you're entitled to it, i wish you all the best.

    Pepe can't even score meaningless goals, let alone meaningful ones, so I am not sure why you're using that against James.

    Popping up with a goal when you're not performing your best is a trait not to be sniffed at either. Salah often drops a stinker but still scores.

    I'd be more concerned about a player "playing well" but not scoring, than a player playing poorly but still grabbing goals, to be honest.

    Your last comment about my argument with regards to Firmino and Pepe made no sense, so I'm not going to respond.

    Good comment dude! Well thought out.
  • EA_Andy
    3130 posts EA Community Manager
    edited September 9
    Bringing this back to on-topic.

    James is a good discussion for expected stats.

    3 goals but an xG of around 1 - not likely to keep scoring at that rate unless he ups the quality of his shots.
  • SDoofus
    4745 posts National Call-Up
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    SDoofus wrote: »
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    SDoofus wrote: »
    Keano wrote: »
    TakeItSlow wrote: »
    Ahmer50x wrote: »
    Problem I have with watching football by itself is that your eyes only see what your mind wants to see. If I want Pepe to be ****, every mistake sticks in my head more. If I want James to be amazing, more mistakes are forgotten.

    It's just human nature. As fans, we're not impartial.

    xG, xGA, shots per 90, possession numbers, and cross accuracy have no partisan loyalties.

    Whilst you make a good point I believe its pretty easy to see when a player is going to be good or is good. And when a player is getting a lot of things in their favour to create a falseness.

    Some would say, that is exactly what @Ahmer50x is on about, obviously you're also on about Pepe & James as you've stated many times about them both. Difference being, you'll let Pepe slide when he's done nothing, & James you'll write off, call this that & the other yet he has 3 goals?

    As Ahmer said, you see what you want to see & bias plays a huge impact on your statement, considering you've also said all that matters is if you score.... which James has, 3 times.

    That's what is especially hilarious. The way @TakeItSlow shuts down the meaningfulness of xStats, saying that it's a load of rubbish and all that matters is the actual points/goals, whereas this very same dude will slate James, who has 3 goals, and raise Pepe to the heavens, who has done **** all. You couldn't make this **** up.

    Lets not start shouting and swearing, its a good topic.

    James - goal against Chelsea when the game was won. Goal against Palace to ultimately lose 2-1. Goal against Southampton to draw 1-1.

    James goals have mainly been meaningless. His performances relatively meh in terms of eye test. Just because he's scored, doesn't mean he's had top level performances.

    You make the same argument as to why Firmino is so brilliant, the same argument you make for Firmino is the same one you make against Pepe. Its odd but you're entitled to it, i wish you all the best.

    Pepe can't even score meaningless goals, let alone meaningful ones, so I am not sure why you're using that against James.

    Popping up with a goal when you're not performing your best is a trait not to be sniffed at either. Salah often drops a stinker but still scores.

    I'd be more concerned about a player "playing well" but not scoring, than a player playing poorly but still grabbing goals, to be honest.

    Your last comment about my argument with regards to Firmino and Pepe made no sense, so I'm not going to respond.

    Good comment dude! Well thought out.

    Embarrassing.
  • SDoofus
    4745 posts National Call-Up
    EA_Andy wrote: »
    Bringing this back to on-topic.

    James is a good discussion for expected stats.

    3 goals but an xG of around 1 - not likely to keep scoring at that rate unless he ups the quality of his shots.

    2 of his goals have been scored from an area of very low xG %. I don't know that much about him, but if a long shot is a specialty of his, like it was for, say, Coutinho, then he'll probably outperform his xG consistently, but we'll see.
  • Apollo
    14269 posts Has That Special Something
    EA_Andy wrote: »
    Bringing this back to on-topic.

    James is a good discussion for expected stats.

    3 goals but an xG of around 1 - not likely to keep scoring at that rate unless he ups the quality of his shots.

    While that is almost certainly true about the rate as almost no one can sustain that rate over a larger sample size, having scored the goals he has should give him confidence in front of goal when he next has the opportunity to shoot. Confidence and form are a big factor in scoring goals, even if the team's results haven't accompanied his goals, him getting off to a start like this is a great sign for him going forward.
  • EA_Andy
    3130 posts EA Community Manager
    Apollo wrote: »
    EA_Andy wrote: »
    Bringing this back to on-topic.

    James is a good discussion for expected stats.

    3 goals but an xG of around 1 - not likely to keep scoring at that rate unless he ups the quality of his shots.

    While that is almost certainly true about the rate as almost no one can sustain that rate over a larger sample size, having scored the goals he has should give him confidence in front of goal when he next has the opportunity to shoot. Confidence and form are a big factor in scoring goals, even if the team's results haven't accompanied his goals, him getting off to a start like this is a great sign for him going forward.

    For sure.

    And the fact he has his place in the side seemingly locked in at such an early stage should help too.

    One thing to note with these kind of stats is we are looking at very small sample sizes at the moment.

    He's also been shooting quite a lot in the last couple of games which is encouraging.
  • Keano
    12778 posts Has That Special Something
    EA_Andy wrote: »
    Bringing this back to on-topic.

    James is a good discussion for expected stats.

    3 goals but an xG of around 1 - not likely to keep scoring at that rate unless he ups the quality of his shots.

    Oh lets be real, no United fan is expecting James to be scoring a goal a game or anything, but the point being made here was that certain people have said only goals matter (stats don't apparently), but also slate a player who's scored 3 in 4, whilst bigging up a player who's scored nothing & is only good "with the eye".

    James is young, hungry & nowhere near the level or ceiling he'll hit, but has still contributed 3 goals in 4 games, Pepe may also be great & not be at his ceiling, but the point being said person was saying this stat & that stat don't matter, only goals do... whilst hypocritically downplaying any goal of James, & saying Pepe is this & that whilst not getting any stats in what apparently matter to him.

    It's one big ball of hypocrisy, which is the reason it's one person on one side & everyone else on the other.


    All stats matter, but James is showing some sort of end product, he may not score 20 this season, but he's putting something away, Pepe on the other hand is "playing good to the eye", but hasn't shown any end product, as a forward for that kinda money you'd think there would be no leg to stand on when trying to criticize a young United winger with 3 goals whilst putting pepe with 0 goals on a pedastool.
  • Ahmer50x
    17318 posts World Class
    xG of 1 in 3 starts and a small cameo.

    34 matches left this season so our limited xG sample says he's in line for about 10 goals if he plays every one.

    13 goals in his debut season coming from Swansea in the Championship would be a madness.
  • Keano
    12778 posts Has That Special Something
    Ahmer50x wrote: »
    xG of 1 in 3 starts and a small cameo.

    34 matches left this season so our limited xG sample says he's in line for about 10 goals if he plays every one.

    13 goals in his debut season coming from Swansea in the Championship would be a madness.

    not being funny i'd take 7-10 happily, i know he already has 3, but we know we're relying more on Martial/Rasford & I fully expect Greenwood to start taking that role throughout the season after getting a run of games, just having players in other positions than striker who can score will benefit the whole team.
  • Dan13
    4648 posts National Call-Up
    edited September 14
    Football is not as cut and dry as baseball, where observed trends tend be predictive of future events. Nor is it like hockey where advanced stats can be used to make sense of a relatively more chaotic environment.

    It's a weird middle full of ebbs and flows that popular advanced statistics do a poor job of explaining. Telling people that a collection of events during a match is just some data point that will regress to some arbitrary mean isn't exactly groundbreaking.

    That being said, rejecting innovations like advanced stats is how you can get left behind and I'm sure some models geniunely do have merit. But the way things stand, I don't see the fun in being a spreadsheet fan that pounds their chest when the other shoe drops because muh "unsustainable trends".
  • Tornado31619
    16491 posts World Class
    Paragraphs would have been nice, but you do raise some valid points.
  • Keano
    12778 posts Has That Special Something
    Paragraphs would have been nice, but you do raise some valid points.

    If someone can’t understand paragraphs then i can’t read their wall as if it’ll make sense.
  • Indrit
    1963 posts Play-Off Hero
    I was probably the first person on this forum to ever mention expected goals, back when it was a minor thing discussed among a few nerds on Twitter. I thought it was genuinely groundbreaking at the time. I've come to understand that it's the work of a band of snake oil salesmen. I'm not saying disregard it entirely but don't be duped by a model that has extremely limited predictive value. Caley, Knutson and the Opta gang are salespeople, they are not academics. They don't even pass the first test for being taken seriously, they don't have a consistent methodology. There are hundreds of xG models out there and all give different results. Even the most popular ones differ. Moreover, they just quite obviously fail to take a whole bunch of factors into account. Even the most fervent proponents of the model will now admit that finishing quality is a factor, though they all tried to underplay that aspect when they were first trying to sell their work. But it's not just that, there are plenty of things that expected goals just completely disregard. Watch any game where a slightly inferior team takes an early lead against a slightly superior team, the expected goal models will almost always end up favouring the slightly superior team. Well guess what, this is just what happens when a weak team takes a lead, they defend it and the other team takes tons of shots. Or how about different teams using different systems? Can a striker playing in a partnership be expected to get the same chances that a lone striker will get? Distributing that burden across two players registers as getting worse according to pure xG numbers. And what about not getting a shot off? What if a striker is through on goal but fails to control the ball and it bobbles to the goalkeeper? No shot there, hence no additional expected goals. Or what if two players are through and the first player tries to square it but the goalkeeper intercepts it? xG just rendered situation meaningless. Of course some of these things are ironed out somewhat by huge sample sizes (they all admit this) but guess what, there are no huge sample sizes in football because things are constantly in flux. Incoming and outgoing personnel mean it is impossible to evaluate football using these analytics. But even if they stay constant, there are still things that expected goals just don't have any way of making sense of. It's a recurring joke in that community that Sean Dyche is a wizard because he keeps succeeding in spite of all their models. Even Alex Ferguson was the same, there are massive oversights for expected goal models. Again, I'm not saying disregard everything about it but be cautious because a lot of the time with these things you are being sold something as opposed to being given an impartial bit of data.

    Exceptional post, great read.
  • Fadazzo
    192 posts Has Potential To Be Special
    edited September 15
    I was probably the first person on this forum to ever mention expected goals, back when it was a minor thing discussed among a few nerds on Twitter. I thought it was genuinely groundbreaking at the time. I've come to understand that it's the work of a band of snake oil salesmen. I'm not saying disregard it entirely but don't be duped by a model that has extremely limited predictive value. Caley, Knutson and the Opta gang are salespeople, they are not academics. They don't even pass the first test for being taken seriously, they don't have a consistent methodology. There are hundreds of xG models out there and all give different results. Even the most popular ones differ. Moreover, they just quite obviously fail to take a whole bunch of factors into account. Even the most fervent proponents of the model will now admit that finishing quality is a factor, though they all tried to underplay that aspect when they were first trying to sell their work. But it's not just that, there are plenty of things that expected goals just completely disregard. Watch any game where a slightly inferior team takes an early lead against a slightly superior team, the expected goal models will almost always end up favouring the slightly superior team. Well guess what, this is just what happens when a weak team takes a lead, they defend it and the other team takes tons of shots. Or how about different teams using different systems? Can a striker playing in a partnership be expected to get the same chances that a lone striker will get? Distributing that burden across two players registers as getting worse according to pure xG numbers. And what about not getting a shot off? What if a striker is through on goal but fails to control the ball and it bobbles to the goalkeeper? No shot there, hence no additional expected goals. Or what if two players are through and the first player tries to square it but the goalkeeper intercepts it? xG just rendered situation meaningless. Of course some of these things are ironed out somewhat by huge sample sizes (they all admit this) but guess what, there are no huge sample sizes in football because things are constantly in flux. Incoming and outgoing personnel mean it is impossible to evaluate football using these analytics. But even if they stay constant, there are still things that expected goals just don't have any way of making sense of. It's a recurring joke in that community that Sean Dyche is a wizard because he keeps succeeding in spite of all their models. Even Alex Ferguson was the same, there are massive oversights for expected goal models. Again, I'm not saying disregard everything about it but be cautious because a lot of the time with these things you are being sold something as opposed to being given an impartial bit of data.

    I've have been working my 'whole' adult life in the analytics side of football (first at Opta for 4 seasons, now at an unnamed company + advisory work for an European top flight club) and I have to partly agree with you.

    With my educational background, I like to think that I'm qualified enough to create a xG-model and I stumbled upon too many issues to slap my name on any given created model (believe me, I've tried tirelessly). I do however think that Expected Goals are a step in the right direction, especially when comparing it to BS-stats such as 'shots'.

    The percentage of clubs being up-to-date with their analytics department is shockingly low. In my advisory work, I've had to basically 'educate' dozens staff members on the possibilities when you have the numbers. I've even had a staff member tell me that the only thing that's important is that you score more than your opponent. :(

    I would say that 'shot locations', 'passing maps' and decision-making are far more important. Because, like you said, a 3vs1 which doesn't end in a shot are being disregarded by the xG-models.

    About your 'snake oil salesmen-remark', I can't speak for Caley and Knutson, but the ones at Opta who created (or are creating) these models are coming from a right place. What the people higher in the hierarchy have in mind, I can't say. But, like EA, they are a company who want to prosper financially. But I gotta remain excited and postive about the developments, I know for a fact that these companies and individuals have taken a lot of clubs out of the stone age regarding analytics.

    You also mentioned that 'they are not academics', but the majority of models are created by someone with an science or mathematics background, especially at OptaJoe.

    On the other hand, when I was between jobs, I contacted a big name in the anayltics world (not one of the names you mentioned) and he was bascially trying to sell me a t*rd in a dress. So yes, there will always be bad apples, but that's the case in every job.

    We shouldn't overestimate the importance of analytics though, but it has been taken for granted until the early 2010's. Like the right diet, a positive work environment and mental health. Hand-in-hand, these things can make a real difference in a season.


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