Pack weights inaccurate?

ShadowofEnigma
204 posts Has Potential To Be Special
Hello,

So I've been writing down my pack weights (Highest skill level in each pack), and comparing it to what EA says the pack weights should be.

My numbers seem to be way off from what EA is saying the pack weights should be, anywhere from .5% to 1.0% +/- a few points of a percent.

Has anyone else been keeping track? Does anyone else see this trend?
I've spent some money, and am interested if others have done the same with similar outcomes.

Comments

  • [Deleted User]
    0 posts National Call-Up
    The user and all related content has been deleted.
  • sheffutd87
    3441 posts National Call-Up
    The pack weight % is based on all the packs being opened not just your own.

  • Mic2904
    2548 posts Fans' Favourite
    sheffutd87 wrote: »
    The pack weight % is based on all the packs being opened not just your own.

    And retrospectively! It doesn't impact packs are are being opened once the weight is shown.
  • El_Nino
    7954 posts League Winner
    sonnyfilth wrote: »
    Your sample size is too small

    The data you are going to post/provide is not worth anything

    When you deal with such small %'s you need a stupidly high sample size to get anything remotely credible, and even then it isn't

  • Waldog94
    3216 posts National Call-Up
    I agree with comments that its all packs bot just his but surely that means somewhere somebody is opening above average packs and since everyone conplains about poor packs and not pulling anything wheres the good packs gaha
  • sheffutd87
    3441 posts National Call-Up
    Waldog94 wrote: »
    I agree with comments that its all packs bot just his but surely that means somewhere somebody is opening above average packs and since everyone conplains about poor packs and not pulling anything wheres the good packs gaha

    Bateson opened over £5,000 worth last year and got none. But there’s someone in the world opening 1 pack and packing a TOTY keeping the percentages up.

    With the sheer volume of people opening packs around the world in their millions the chances of getting one are minuscule.
  • czcash
    453 posts An Exciting Prospect
    You realize that 1% does not mean you will get it every 100 packs, right?
    Independent events, m8
  • pekkaa88
    7267 posts Big Money Move
    Waldog94 wrote: »
    I agree with comments that its all packs bot just his but surely that means somewhere somebody is opening above average packs and since everyone conplains about poor packs and not pulling anything wheres the good packs gaha

    Some dude here usually does that what did you get from rivals rewards thread. Plenty of people pack good stuff from those.. But usually people who are not so lucky are more vocal about it..

    My pack luck for example has been better than ever this year.. Got mid Henry from like 3rd pack I opened this fifa.. And plenty of good pulls since
  • ShadowofEnigma
    204 posts Has Potential To Be Special
    no, but a 4.5% should mean that within 30-50 packs containing the same 4.5% probability, it SHOULD in fact contain a player of said rating.
  • kayron16
    2527 posts Fans' Favourite
    no, but a 4.5% should mean that within 30-50 packs containing the same 4.5% probability, it SHOULD in fact contain a player of said rating.

    In the same way you have 50% chance of getting heads or tails on a coin but you can still get one 5 times in a row?
  • FCBlunt
    3123 posts National Call-Up
    I think opnening a pack triggers more than one roll. It will first roll for a walkout, then roll for nif or speciel card and in the end.. You need to beat another roll for what player you get from the pool.
  • ShadowofEnigma
    204 posts Has Potential To Be Special
    kayron16 wrote: »
    no, but a 4.5% should mean that within 30-50 packs containing the same 4.5% probability, it SHOULD in fact contain a player of said rating.

    In the same way you have 50% chance of getting heads or tails on a coin but you can still get one 5 times in a row?



    Okay, so flip a coin 1000 times, tell me if your findings don't come close to a 50/50 to 40/60.

    If EA says the % in a pack is 4.5, and Im getting 3.5, is there not a discrepancy? Also, I'm not asking for people to explain math and probabilities to me. I understand them. I am asking if anyone else has the same experience, or if anyone else has even taken the time to keep track of and do the math.
  • ShadowofEnigma
    204 posts Has Potential To Be Special
    sonnyfilth wrote: »
    Your sample size is too small

    The data you are going to post/provide is not worth anything

    When you deal with such small %'s you need a stupidly high sample size to get anything remotely credible, and even then it isn't

    So 2500$ worth of fifa points is too small of a sample size? Interesting. At 12000 points per 89.99, that comes out to ABOUT 336,000 FIFA points. When one person can use 180,000 Fifa points, and get 4 icons, and I use 336,000 and get 0, I find that interesting. Almost as if EA has certain people who will inevitably get cards, and others who will not.

  • ShadowofEnigma
    204 posts Has Potential To Be Special
    Also, as stated in my original post, I just wanted to see if anyone else has been keeping track and has had similar findings.

    I'm not trying to say EA is doing anything wrong here. On the same token I wouldn't put it past a large corporate body to alter numbers in their favor for a financial gain. (I'm not suggesting that is what they are doing).

    I'm just curious to hear from other people about their findings on the matter.

    I saw a post yesterday of someone posting a video of them opening packs with 180k worth of fifa points, and getting 4 icons.
    When I have literally doubled that, and have received 0.

    That compelled me to see if other people who have used fifa points or gold (idc which) to open large amounts of packs, have been finding EAs %'s accurate or not.

    If I open close to 1000 packs, I would expect to have a decent sample size which should prove the %'s. But when my %'s are almost 1% off from the 4%, that's a large discrepancy. I don't think that is insignificant.


  • BombSquadPuppy
    2297 posts Fans' Favourite
    kayron16 wrote: »
    no, but a 4.5% should mean that within 30-50 packs containing the same 4.5% probability, it SHOULD in fact contain a player of said rating.

    In the same way you have 50% chance of getting heads or tails on a coin but you can still get one 5 times in a row?



    Okay, so flip a coin 1000 times, tell me if your findings don't come close to a 50/50 to 40/60.

    If EA says the % in a pack is 4.5, and Im getting 3.5, is there not a discrepancy? Also, I'm not asking for people to explain math and probabilities to me. I understand them. I am asking if anyone else has the same experience, or if anyone else has even taken the time to keep track of and do the math.

    You kinda answered your own question with the coin flip example o.O
    Theres always going to be a 1-3% discrepancy, either positive or negative when dealing with probabilities, and its true although each instance is seperate from the other when opening packs, when you open 100 there should be at least the bare minimum of the odds, give or take said discrepancies
  • ShadowofEnigma
    204 posts Has Potential To Be Special
    Well, I've noticed that since I started this thread, pack weights went from 4.7 to 2.9. lmao...
    Funny how that works.
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