BLACK FRIDAY EVENT |MARKET SWINGS| EXPECTATIONS| Fifa 19| HYPE

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Blarix
20868 posts Club Captain
DISCLAIMER: Please be aware that I'm not responsible for you either buying too early or missing the boat. This is a guide but ultimately it is for you to decide when to pull the trigger.


It's that time of the year again

What will be discussed in this thread will be the following.

--When to buy
-When to Sell
-What to expect when the actual day comes around.
-Gold players
-Icons
-Promo's
-What is different this year from last


First let's get the most basic questions out of the way before we go into a bit more details.

Q: Did you miss the crash or is the crash going to happen ?

A: To keep it simple you have not missed the crash and is going to come around soon.

Q: Why are prices rising instead of going down?

A: Prices will continue to fluctuate up and down also known as now the famous term ''Dead cat bounce''

Q: What is Dead cat bounce?

A: ''a temporary recovery in share prices after a substantial fall, caused by speculators buying in order to cover their positions.'' In other words people buying thinking they have missed or about to miss the crash.


dead-cat-bounce.jpg


This happens every year without a single fail, whether it's influenced by youtubers/streamers or forums, panic buying always get rampant for short period of time before the inevitable decline towards crash.

When to buy gold players :

-Best time to buy players under 200k is DURING promo packs as they will be packed at insane high rates, they have always been the lowest during lighting rounds (open bid is your best friend) .

-Mid tier-high level Golds will come down naturally with the market dipping.

-If you still have gold cards I would be selling them ASAP as they will come down drastically soon.

Example: Messi's price is now sitting at 770 which I believe is the lowest it has been.

Icons:

This is the one that dictates EA's income and market stability. If Icons go down too much at this time it will financially impact EA but even EA can't stop the incoming crash regarding this but you best believe they will try to counteract it with every possible move.

-Weekend league sell up hasn't started yet and I'm assuming most icon investors are slightly getting worried as prices have started to trend downwards.

Q: I'm after Prime Lampard, when do I pull the trigger?

A: Set a price you're happy with, a realistic price. Don't expect Prime lampard to drop 500k. Personally 850k would be my buy price and he will get there.




BLACK FRIDAY (THE ACTUAL DAY ITSELF)

By the time it gets to the official black friday day prices might seem they have risen drastically and you have missed the boat....but you haven't.

Black Friday: From previous years I have noticed prices are always lowest during the 100k lighting rounds across the board, as most people by this time have already bought up and with influx of new cards on the market the under cutting is a joy to watch. I include cyber Monday as part of the BF weekend and promo's will spit out bunch of new cards with not many buyers to pick up the deals, it's a very risky move but one that could benefit you the most if you time it correct.



Q:What is different this year to last?

A: Rivals, plain simple. People still want to play for rewards but it won't stop the decline it will just cause a lot of fluctuations. Lot's of coins in the market this year but with every inflation the crash is even more severe (Fifa 15 ring a bell?) .

Most important tip that I can give anyone is to SET A TARGET PRICE for the cards you want to buy and once it hits it buy and don't look back.

Comments

  • '96dc2
    9060 posts League Winner
    TL:DR
  • mjs4p
    12272 posts Has That Special Something
    Nice work @Blarix ! Good summary imo.
  • Rootseyyy
    1288 posts Professional
    Thanks for this mate. Excellent read so and will help me prepare accordingly
  • ScruffyDogBurger
    3306 posts National Call-Up
    Bought my team today as happy with the prices of Prime Van Basten, Matuidi and Casemiro.

    Will watch this thread though.
  • Overevil
    2685 posts Fans' Favourite
    Nice thread, 100% agree with everything, hope in a twist by Ea for once
  • Whoman
    6051 posts Big Money Move
    Just 2 things i would add:

    1) Golds that are good SBC fodder you can buy now (the Godin, Otamendi, Hummels etc), comfortably knowing there will be another Icon SBCs, 2 more EL card SBCs, Bundes POTM.

    2) Lots of high rated cards will be more expensive even a day after BF than they are now. So if you can't be bothered to sit on standby on BF to snipe/buy during pack offers you might as well buy now and enjoy playing them 2 weeks earlier. Some won't even really be cheaper during BF promo offers because they rise till then.

    One example:

    f5fc8afa5cff5ab250aaab7187914202.png

  • M98H
    13917 posts Has That Special Something
    Cba to sell :lol:
  • WonderMouse
    2317 posts Fans' Favourite
    Missed the bought today on Messi because I can't use my buy now (unassigned items)

    Think he will drop below 750k in the lead up to friday then? Can't imagine him dropping too much during the promos as he won't be packed much
  • Pikachu
    9274 posts League Winner
    Nice one.
  • Crazy Creaky Jr
    6716 posts Big Money Move
    Always missing the boat every year so decided to keep my players. They will bounce back up anyway
  • Blarix
    20868 posts Club Captain
    M98H wrote: »
    Cba to sell :lol:

    Purely done for profit wise. If you don't care and want just your team prices will be back up to whatever you bought them at but let's say you sell up.

    You can possibly rebuy the same team for 1mill-500k cheaper. That is basically free coins!

  • scalaneopt
    947 posts Professional
    Nice post. Been here since fifa 12 and I still haven’t learn correctly. Lets se how it goes this year. Will follow this Topic daily.
  • Knowlesdinho
    14802 posts World Class
    Nice disclaimer @Blarix I remember the grief you got last year from some, well I’m not going to use the noun, but you get the point :joy:
  • VICTAAAA
    11235 posts Has That Special Something
    My hope is that this big thread keeps people from making new individual threads.

    My experience tells me that’ll never happen.
  • Andybelfast
    11010 posts Has That Special Something
    mjs4p wrote: »
    Nice work @Blarix ! Good summary imo.

  • mjs4p
    12272 posts Has That Special Something
    Agree with @Whoman on SBC cards. Pricing is much less predictable depending on what SBCs come over the next few weeks. This certainly applies to 83s and 84s, but also the cheapest group of all ratings up through 89 or 90.
  • krakos000
    17836 posts World Class
    Best to just hold about 380k and keep building? I'm hoping they do a base icon sbc soon. I cant think of anything to upgrade on my team with those coins for right now
  • Dan is Clutch
    31859 posts National Team Captain
    I never sell up.
  • '96dc2
    9060 posts League Winner
    I never sell up.

    Easiest way to make coins
  • Kamilflage
    6233 posts Big Money Move
    Good guide @Blarix
    You will probably still get a bunch of people crying to you lol but well done on the disclaimer.
  • Knowlesdinho
    14802 posts World Class
    '96dc2 wrote: »
    I never sell up.

    Easiest way to make coins

    You don’t really need to make coins from selling up when you’re constantly making coins though.
  • RealM
    7578 posts League Winner
    I hope you're ready for the countless tags with the phrases: Should I buy him now? Do you think he will go lower? B)
  • BWild
    3783 posts National Call-Up
    Kamilflage wrote: »
    Good guide @Blarix
    You will probably still get a bunch of people crying to you lol but well done on the disclaimer.

    The disclaimer *should* reduce/remove the backlash. It's a guide based on trends and experience, and should be used as such. Ultimately, everything comes down to each individual's choices, and not what Blarix posts.
  • LeonidasJB
    21311 posts Club Captain
    Great post. Great presentation.
    Will follow this and see how my funds and potential signings go.
  • Dan is Clutch
    31859 posts National Team Captain
    '96dc2 wrote: »
    I never sell up.

    Easiest way to make coins

    I make coins by playing WL games, if i sell my team, i put myself at a disadvantage.
  • Kamilflage
    6233 posts Big Money Move
    '96dc2 wrote: »
    I never sell up.

    Easiest way to make coins

    You don’t really need to make coins from selling up when you’re constantly making coins though.

    Lol so true...
  • LeonidasJB
    21311 posts Club Captain
    I never sell up.

    Nor do I. I like to keep my player stats and carry on playing with a decent team.
  • AnDrEwThEdOn
    17270 posts World Class
    I wish i could be bothered selling up... I'd rather just use a good team in Champs
  • '96dc2
    9060 posts League Winner
    '96dc2 wrote: »
    I never sell up.

    Easiest way to make coins

    I make coins by playing WL games, if i sell my team, i put myself at a disadvantage.

    Doesn’t make much of a difference and for 2 weeks you can make 40% +
  • Finesse_4days
    16458 posts World Class
    '96dc2 wrote: »
    '96dc2 wrote: »
    I never sell up.

    Easiest way to make coins

    I make coins by playing WL games, if i sell my team, i put myself at a disadvantage.

    Doesn’t make much of a difference and for 2 weeks you can make 40% +

    you can t make 40% if you have expensive players though as they don't drop as much
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