Fuel to the fire

Momus
1836 posts Play-Off Hero
On this forum I have discussed a lot about pack lucks, and how all the conspiracies about accounts and pack luck are simply down to a lack of understanding about probabilities etc.

One thing that has just caught my eye though is Nepenthez’s RTG series. In the space of a month, all from rival/wl rewards and sbcs, this guy has packed:
UCL Courtois
UCL Bale
UCL De Bruyne
IF Suarez
Prime Trezeguet

And not to mention countless valuable 86/7 rated players.

On top of this, today from his rival rewards he’s just tweeted that he’s recieved 1m coins worth of players. Two french, so assuming pogba and mbappe, or maybe another icon.

If an outcome is improbable, it is inherently probable given enough outcomes, so likely he just got lucky.

Anyone have any thoughts on this?



Comments

  • Moose Factory
    6207 posts Big Money Move
    FrighteningScornfulKingsnake-size_restricted.gif

    Smoke and mirrors man. Smoke and mirrors.
  • Murphdogz
    1554 posts Play-Off Hero
    He's a youtuber.I've said for a long time youtubers get given everything.
  • Momus
    1836 posts Play-Off Hero
    Murphdogz wrote: »
    He's a youtuber.I've said for a long time youtubers get given everything.

    It would certainly make sense from a business perspective. Loads of people watch them, see good pack pulls, hence encouraging them to spend.

    However, now they have set odds published for packs, dynamically altering an accounts pack weight is certainly illegal.

    That being said, pack weights aren’t shown for rewards
  • Thefranchise92
    6636 posts Big Money Move
    Murphdogz wrote: »
    He's a youtuber.I've said for a long time youtubers get given everything.

    I mean ea clearly know his account so they give him stuff. So bait
  • Safk001
    967 posts Professional
    He’s more than likely on EA’s payroll for “advertising” it’s not unheard of for companies to use YouTubers to promote their products, why would the gaming industry be any different?

    *Best make it clear I do not know if he is paid or has ever been paid by EA for any work, it’s just an opinion.
  • Marleigh
    2295 posts Fans' Favourite
    Safk001 wrote: »
    He’s more than likely on EA’s payroll for “advertising” it’s not unheard of for companies to use YouTubers to promote their products, why would the gaming industry be any different?

    *Best make it clear I do not know if he is paid or has ever been paid by EA for any work, it’s just an opinion.

    It is highly unlikely that he is paid by EA as that would need to be declared on the video and he would be risking a lot for a few quid given his previous court case.
  • MuzzaLUFC
    1482 posts Play-Off Hero
    But if he’s paid unofficially aka great pulls on UT.. no one would ever know for sure ;)
  • SPACIALIST09
    1002 posts Professional
    Just trick children into gambling by promoting your gambling site without telling the viewers you own the site.
  • Momus
    1836 posts Play-Off Hero
    I firmly believe that’s it’s all luck. As long as something isn’t impossible, then, by definition it is at least possible.

    What just interests me is HOW unlikely these pulls are.

    Prime Trezeguet - 1 in a 10,000?
    IF Suarez - 1 in 1000?
    UCL de bruyne and bale, likely similar.
    Both Pogba and Mbappe in the same rewards...

    You get the picture

    (Obviously just estimates of probability)
  • GreezyWeezyLDN
    1323 posts Professional
    1 or 2 of those cards I could say he's been lucky, but the amount of ridiculous pulls he's had is beyond luck.

    I have 2 problems with it.

    1. I get that packs are "random" but it feels inherently wrong that someone who hasn't spent a penny or traded has so much more than people who have spent hundreds as well as playing WL and Rivals.

    2. They are not random. I've been playing FUT long enough, been watching FUT YouTube's long enough and spent enough of my own money and time to know when something looks suspicious. The "luck" he's having is unheard of.

    I'm 97.6% sure that something is going on. But no, Nep is not in on it.
  • Steelcitysniper
    1770 posts Play-Off Hero
    edited November 2018
    Mom said i was 1 in a million but all i pack are savic and scocco! The lies!

    50k pack... cool no boards... consigli
  • RandomLhama83
    10108 posts Has That Special Something
    Momus wrote: »
    On this forum I have discussed a lot about pack lucks, and how all the conspiracies about accounts and pack luck are simply down to a lack of understanding about probabilities etc.

    One thing that has just caught my eye though is Nepenthez’s RTG series. In the space of a month, all from rival/wl rewards and sbcs, this guy has packed:
    UCL Courtois
    UCL Bale
    UCL De Bruyne
    IF Suarez
    Prime Trezeguet

    And not to mention countless valuable 86/7 rated players.

    On top of this, today from his rival rewards he’s just tweeted that he’s recieved 1m coins worth of players. Two french, so assuming pogba and mbappe, or maybe another icon.

    If an outcome is improbable, it is inherently probable given enough outcomes, so likely he just got lucky.

    Anyone have any thoughts on this?



    its not out of the realm of possibilities but unlikely that the company would risk damaging there brand with something such as this. Take in, that this YT spends thousands weekly to pack these players for videos. and in return he gets the income back from income made by the video from ads/sponsorship deals ect. So when you do the math, its very likely that someone who spends as much as he does can have good pack luck because the odds are in his favor. So nothing can really be proven, juss saying, its not impossible to have this kinda of pack luck with how much has been spent. Its actually more likely to happen.
  • KurtyH
    400 posts Sunday League Hero
    edited November 2018
    I strongly believe new accounts get more pack luck and have seen enough of new accounts packing crazy things to know it can't just be luck.

    When you had your account from 2012 and never packed an icon or top top player once after countless packs opening and you have seen new accounts pack icons, Ronaldo's and Messi's and countless other high rated players you know it's not just luck based.

    Interesting to know if Youtubers or any players make a new account every Fifa?
  • Momus
    1836 posts Play-Off Hero
    joe666 wrote: »
    Momus wrote: »
    On this forum I have discussed a lot about pack lucks, and how all the conspiracies about accounts and pack luck are simply down to a lack of understanding about probabilities etc.

    One thing that has just caught my eye though is Nepenthez’s RTG series. In the space of a month, all from rival/wl rewards and sbcs, this guy has packed:
    UCL Courtois
    UCL Bale
    UCL De Bruyne
    IF Suarez
    Prime Trezeguet

    And not to mention countless valuable 86/7 rated players.

    On top of this, today from his rival rewards he’s just tweeted that he’s recieved 1m coins worth of players. Two french, so assuming pogba and mbappe, or maybe another icon.

    If an outcome is improbable, it is inherently probable given enough outcomes, so likely he just got lucky.

    Anyone have any thoughts on this?



    its not out of the realm of possibilities but unlikely that the company would risk damaging there brand with something such as this. Take in, that this YT spends thousands weekly to pack these players for videos. and in return he gets the income back from income made by the video from ads/sponsorship deals ect. So when you do the math, its very likely that someone who spends as much as he does can have good pack luck because the odds are in his favor. So nothing can really be proven, juss saying, its not impossible to have this kinda of pack luck with how much has been spent. Its actually more likely to happen.

    This point is very true, and explains the common misconception of youtuber pack pulls.

    However, what I’m referring to is his road to glory series, where all his packs are from rewards or sbcs - the same as most of us here. He didn’t spend a penny on any of those pack pulls
  • Marleigh
    2295 posts Fans' Favourite
    KurtyH wrote: »
    I strongly believe new accounts get more pack luck and have seen enough of new accounts packing crazy things to know it can't just be luck.

    as far as i know every account will show the same odds for packs on the store, so by making new accounts more likely to pack higher rated players EA would very likely be breaking the law. but this sort of thing is not provable at all as their simulation of pack openings will far exceed anything any one person opens

    and crazy things being packed is the absolute epitome of luck, my account is pre 2012 and i got one of the best packs i've ever seen in 2015, attributing luck to a new account rather than just luck is just another conspiracy theory
  • Mom said i was 1 in a million but all i pack are savic and scocco! The lies!

    50k pack... cool no boards... consigli

    join the club
  • GreezyWeezyLDN
    1323 posts Professional
    joe666 wrote: »
    Momus wrote: »
    On this forum I have discussed a lot about pack lucks, and how all the conspiracies about accounts and pack luck are simply down to a lack of understanding about probabilities etc.

    One thing that has just caught my eye though is Nepenthez’s RTG series. In the space of a month, all from rival/wl rewards and sbcs, this guy has packed:
    UCL Courtois
    UCL Bale
    UCL De Bruyne
    IF Suarez
    Prime Trezeguet

    And not to mention countless valuable 86/7 rated players.

    On top of this, today from his rival rewards he’s just tweeted that he’s recieved 1m coins worth of players. Two french, so assuming pogba and mbappe, or maybe another icon.

    If an outcome is improbable, it is inherently probable given enough outcomes, so likely he just got lucky.

    Anyone have any thoughts on this?



    its not out of the realm of possibilities but unlikely that the company would risk damaging there brand with something such as this. Take in, that this YT spends thousands weekly to pack these players for videos. and in return he gets the income back from income made by the video from ads/sponsorship deals ect. So when you do the math, its very likely that someone who spends as much as he does can have good pack luck because the odds are in his favor. So nothing can really be proven, juss saying, its not impossible to have this kinda of pack luck with how much has been spent. Its actually more likely to happen.

    Its not out of the realms of possibility because we are seeing it happen. The question isn't, is it possible . The question is how?

    He spends no money on this account. Not a penny. If Castro or Bateson had these pulls or even Nep on his main accou there would be no raised eyebrows.

    What other people have genuinely doesn't bother me and I enjoy his series, but for perspective, I've spent around £500 and my account is nowhere near his. Including my rewards which aren't to different to his.

    In terms of damaging their reputation. We are talking about EA, c'mon. They used to give Castro the top 3 TOTW players every week until he told them to stop. They have no problem using content creators to advertise packs and promos
  • RandomLhama83
    10108 posts Has That Special Something
    Momus wrote: »
    joe666 wrote: »
    Momus wrote: »
    On this forum I have discussed a lot about pack lucks, and how all the conspiracies about accounts and pack luck are simply down to a lack of understanding about probabilities etc.

    One thing that has just caught my eye though is Nepenthez’s RTG series. In the space of a month, all from rival/wl rewards and sbcs, this guy has packed:
    UCL Courtois
    UCL Bale
    UCL De Bruyne
    IF Suarez
    Prime Trezeguet

    And not to mention countless valuable 86/7 rated players.

    On top of this, today from his rival rewards he’s just tweeted that he’s recieved 1m coins worth of players. Two french, so assuming pogba and mbappe, or maybe another icon.

    If an outcome is improbable, it is inherently probable given enough outcomes, so likely he just got lucky.

    Anyone have any thoughts on this?



    its not out of the realm of possibilities but unlikely that the company would risk damaging there brand with something such as this. Take in, that this YT spends thousands weekly to pack these players for videos. and in return he gets the income back from income made by the video from ads/sponsorship deals ect. So when you do the math, its very likely that someone who spends as much as he does can have good pack luck because the odds are in his favor. So nothing can really be proven, juss saying, its not impossible to have this kinda of pack luck with how much has been spent. Its actually more likely to happen.

    This point is very true, and explains the common misconception of youtuber pack pulls.

    However, what I’m referring to is his road to glory series, where all his packs are from rewards or sbcs - the same as most of us here. He didn’t spend a penny on any of those pack pulls

    rewards are suppose to have good players in them, so i see nothing wrong there, second , SBCs are usually repeateable.... he can do as many as he wants and only show the good pulls. dont fall for the BS. Its all a con.
  • HullCity1904
    3021 posts National Call-Up
    Sorry but I don't buy the Probablities they've added

    It's clear to 99% of players, that untradable rewards usually give you better results than tradable...

    This has been like that for years.

    So splashing the same odds for that pack is just plain wrong imo.

    I also know from years of experience and a decently sized sample size that "NOT ALL 100k PACKS ARE MADE EQUAL"

    i've opened countless 100k packs from ICON SBCs previous years... and had 5x with not even a board


    I open the same amount of 100k packs with points... I can guarantee results will be different.
  • RandomLhama83
    10108 posts Has That Special Something
    joe666 wrote: »
    Momus wrote: »
    On this forum I have discussed a lot about pack lucks, and how all the conspiracies about accounts and pack luck are simply down to a lack of understanding about probabilities etc.

    One thing that has just caught my eye though is Nepenthez’s RTG series. In the space of a month, all from rival/wl rewards and sbcs, this guy has packed:
    UCL Courtois
    UCL Bale
    UCL De Bruyne
    IF Suarez
    Prime Trezeguet

    And not to mention countless valuable 86/7 rated players.

    On top of this, today from his rival rewards he’s just tweeted that he’s recieved 1m coins worth of players. Two french, so assuming pogba and mbappe, or maybe another icon.

    If an outcome is improbable, it is inherently probable given enough outcomes, so likely he just got lucky.

    Anyone have any thoughts on this?



    its not out of the realm of possibilities but unlikely that the company would risk damaging there brand with something such as this. Take in, that this YT spends thousands weekly to pack these players for videos. and in return he gets the income back from income made by the video from ads/sponsorship deals ect. So when you do the math, its very likely that someone who spends as much as he does can have good pack luck because the odds are in his favor. So nothing can really be proven, juss saying, its not impossible to have this kinda of pack luck with how much has been spent. Its actually more likely to happen.

    Its not out of the realms of possibility because we are seeing it happen. The question isn't, is it possible . The question is how?

    He spends no money on this account. Not a penny. If Castro or Bateson had these pulls or even Nep on his main accou there would be no raised eyebrows.

    What other people have genuinely doesn't bother me and I enjoy his series, but for perspective, I've spent around £500 and my account is nowhere near his. Including my rewards which aren't to different to his.

    In terms of damaging their reputation. We are talking about EA, c'mon. They used to give Castro the top 3 TOTW players every week until he told them to stop. They have no problem using content creators to advertise packs and promos

    so you believe its happening and still spend 500 on 19? smart play
  • Springveldt
    6922 posts Big Money Move
    Sorry but I don't buy the Probablities they've added

    It's clear to 99% of players, that untradable rewards usually give you better results than tradable...

    This has been like that for years.

    So splashing the same odds for that pack is just plain wrong imo.

    I also know from years of experience and a decently sized sample size that "NOT ALL 100k PACKS ARE MADE EQUAL"

    i've opened countless 100k packs from ICON SBCs previous years... and had 5x with not even a board


    I open the same amount of 100k packs with points... I can guarantee results will be different.
    The untradable packs don't display the odds, EA could set them to whatever they want each week.
  • Murphdogz
    1554 posts Play-Off Hero
    Momus wrote: »
    Murphdogz wrote: »
    He's a youtuber.I've said for a long time youtubers get given everything.

    It would certainly make sense from a business perspective. Loads of people watch them, see good pack pulls, hence encouraging them to spend.

    However, now they have set odds published for packs, dynamically altering an accounts pack weight is certainly illegal.

    That being said, pack weights aren’t shown for rewards

    Even when using fifa points they pull top players.also opening packs using fifa points is gambling.your using real money on a gamble.no different than doing the lottery or a scratch card which you have to be of a certain age.how many people buy fifa points under the age of 16?
  • Murphdogz
    1554 posts Play-Off Hero
    joe666 wrote: »
    Momus wrote: »
    On this forum I have discussed a lot about pack lucks, and how all the conspiracies about accounts and pack luck are simply down to a lack of understanding about probabilities etc.

    One thing that has just caught my eye though is Nepenthez’s RTG series. In the space of a month, all from rival/wl rewards and sbcs, this guy has packed:
    UCL Courtois
    UCL Bale
    UCL De Bruyne
    IF Suarez
    Prime Trezeguet

    And not to mention countless valuable 86/7 rated players.

    On top of this, today from his rival rewards he’s just tweeted that he’s recieved 1m coins worth of players. Two french, so assuming pogba and mbappe, or maybe another icon.

    If an outcome is improbable, it is inherently probable given enough outcomes, so likely he just got lucky.

    Anyone have any thoughts on this?



    its not out of the realm of possibilities but unlikely that the company would risk damaging there brand with something such as this. Take in, that this YT spends thousands weekly to pack these players for videos. and in return he gets the income back from income made by the video from ads/sponsorship deals ect. So when you do the math, its very likely that someone who spends as much as he does can have good pack luck because the odds are in his favor. So nothing can really be proven, juss saying, its not impossible to have this kinda of pack luck with how much has been spent. Its actually more likely to happen.

    Its not out of the realms of possibility because we are seeing it happen. The question isn't, is it possible . The question is how?

    He spends no money on this account. Not a penny. If Castro or Bateson had these pulls or even Nep on his main accou there would be no raised eyebrows.

    What other people have genuinely doesn't bother me and I enjoy his series, but for perspective, I've spent around £500 and my account is nowhere near his. Including my rewards which aren't to different to his.

    In terms of damaging their reputation. We are talking about EA, c'mon. They used to give Castro the top 3 TOTW players every week until he told them to stop. They have no problem using content creators to advertise packs and promos

    Castro and bateson pull icons and Toty players for fun on live stream.some people pull none in the whole time playing yet they pull 3-4 icons each or more every fifa.come on
  • Momus
    1836 posts Play-Off Hero
    joe666 wrote: »
    Momus wrote: »
    joe666 wrote: »
    Momus wrote: »
    On this forum I have discussed a lot about pack lucks, and how all the conspiracies about accounts and pack luck are simply down to a lack of understanding about probabilities etc.

    One thing that has just caught my eye though is Nepenthez’s RTG series. In the space of a month, all from rival/wl rewards and sbcs, this guy has packed:
    UCL Courtois
    UCL Bale
    UCL De Bruyne
    IF Suarez
    Prime Trezeguet

    And not to mention countless valuable 86/7 rated players.

    On top of this, today from his rival rewards he’s just tweeted that he’s recieved 1m coins worth of players. Two french, so assuming pogba and mbappe, or maybe another icon.

    If an outcome is improbable, it is inherently probable given enough outcomes, so likely he just got lucky.

    Anyone have any thoughts on this?



    its not out of the realm of possibilities but unlikely that the company would risk damaging there brand with something such as this. Take in, that this YT spends thousands weekly to pack these players for videos. and in return he gets the income back from income made by the video from ads/sponsorship deals ect. So when you do the math, its very likely that someone who spends as much as he does can have good pack luck because the odds are in his favor. So nothing can really be proven, juss saying, its not impossible to have this kinda of pack luck with how much has been spent. Its actually more likely to happen.

    This point is very true, and explains the common misconception of youtuber pack pulls.

    However, what I’m referring to is his road to glory series, where all his packs are from rewards or sbcs - the same as most of us here. He didn’t spend a penny on any of those pack pulls

    rewards are suppose to have good players in them, so i see nothing wrong there, second , SBCs are usually repeateable.... he can do as many as he wants and only show the good pulls. dont fall for the BS. Its all a con.

    Valid point about the SBCs. We’ll ignore those pulls.

    And just to stress, I don’t think there’s any conspiracy, just stunned by the odds.

    So, from 5 weeks of rival rewards he’s pulled: Mbappe, Pogba, Prime Trezeguet, IF Suarez.

    Assuming 8 packs a week from rivals that’s 40 packs in which he has a chance to pack those players.

    Arbitrary, but I can’t imagine Prime Trezeguet odds are less than 1 in 5000
    Fair to assume IF Suarez is very very high too, 1 in 500. We’ll be generous with Mbappe and Pogba and say 1 in 50.

    Odds of those pulls over 40 packs?..

  • EA_Andy
    3378 posts EA Staff (retired)
    Locking this to stop the conspiracies being mentioned.

    The probabilities are the same for everyone.
This discussion has been closed.