Upcoming Black Friday Crash!

Leon0713
1807 posts Fans' Favourite
My team is worth around 1.5M+ with Zola's prime card - questioning whether or not to sell it in anticipation.. any advice please?

Comments

  • AjaxLegends
    1838 posts Play-Off Hero
    Yep, I would.
  • LovelyVillain
    3579 posts National Call-Up
    Prime Icons will drop a bit in the days leading up to BF. The lowest point in the crash last year was 12-14 days before the actual Black Friday promo. The market is unpredictable but one way or another, there will definitely be price fluctuation if the promo is the same as usual. Top tier cards recover significantly a month later, lower rated (85 or less) cards typically do not recover to their previous value if they were expensive for their rating, like Fabinho. He will probably get back up to 90% or less of his previous price where someone like Ronaldo will reach his old price after a month or so until TOTY, which is the point where cards typically start dropping permanently.

    All of this is based on FUTBIN’s price range data for the span of time between October and December, so bare that in mind. I hope this helps.
  • Leon0713
    1807 posts Fans' Favourite
    Prime Icons will drop a bit in the days leading up to BF. The lowest point in the crash last year was 12-14 days before the actual Black Friday promo. The market is unpredictable but one way or another, there will definitely be price fluctuation if the promo is the same as usual. Top tier cards recover significantly a month later, lower rated (85 or less) cards typically do not recover to their previous value if they were expensive for their rating, like Fabinho. He will probably get back up to 90% or less of his previous price where someone like Ronaldo will reach his old price after a month or so until TOTY, which is the point where cards typically start dropping permanently.

    All of this is based on FUTBIN’s price range data for the span of time between October and December, so bare that in mind. I hope this helps.

    Alright I'll probably sell up now and make a cheapish team until prices drop a little. Thanks for the help mate :)
  • iRusty_yo
    3925 posts National Call-Up
    Prime Icons will drop a bit in the days leading up to BF. The lowest point in the crash last year was 12-14 days before the actual Black Friday promo. The market is unpredictable but one way or another, there will definitely be price fluctuation if the promo is the same as usual. Top tier cards recover significantly a month later, lower rated (85 or less) cards typically do not recover to their previous value if they were expensive for their rating, like Fabinho. He will probably get back up to 90% or less of his previous price where someone like Ronaldo will reach his old price after a month or so until TOTY, which is the point where cards typically start dropping permanently.

    All of this is based on FUTBIN’s price range data for the span of time between October and December, so bare that in mind. I hope this helps.

    I’m kinda honking the prices will drop sooner, might be Thursday
  • LovelyVillain
    3579 posts National Call-Up
    iRusty_yo wrote: »
    Prime Icons will drop a bit in the days leading up to BF. The lowest point in the crash last year was 12-14 days before the actual Black Friday promo. The market is unpredictable but one way or another, there will definitely be price fluctuation if the promo is the same as usual. Top tier cards recover significantly a month later, lower rated (85 or less) cards typically do not recover to their previous value if they were expensive for their rating, like Fabinho. He will probably get back up to 90% or less of his previous price where someone like Ronaldo will reach his old price after a month or so until TOTY, which is the point where cards typically start dropping permanently.

    All of this is based on FUTBIN’s price range data for the span of time between October and December, so bare that in mind. I hope this helps.

    I’m kinda honking the prices will drop sooner, might be Thursday

    Yes the day I listed is when they hit rock bottom. It should be noted that a couple hours DURING the promo is when prices where at their absolute lowest, but it is not practical to include that because it literally lasted a couple hours and not the whole day, so I don’t want to confuse anyone.
  • truegunn3r
    8816 posts Has That Special Something
    It’s only been 6 weeks since launch and most of us already have a meta team. Since, the speed in which my team has grown indicates that I don’t need to bother with any crashes during minor promo events. I’d probably only sell my squad during TOTY and TOTS crashes, until then I’ll carry on enjoy playing with my squad.
  • Erashel
    241 posts Sunday League Hero
    Not selling. It's just a game I'm not gonna be waiting for 3 weeks to play
    Anyway have a pretty good team. Didn't spend a dime on FP
  • Danny
    241 posts Sunday League Hero
    Prices are cheap now because of people selling early, wouldn't surprise me if players go up because of demand
  • Skillzy
    313 posts Sunday League Hero
    Unless there is a reduction in coins this is never going to happen, supply is way lower than demand this year, that’s why the market for top tier players is where it is
  • JED_JD
    1572 posts Fans' Favourite
    The issue was last year there were too many "traders" and "investors" and it basically shifted the market back by 2 weeks or so, whereas this year because coins are so easy to earn, if you're half decent and get gold 3 every week, you're getting about 100k a week plus rival rewards, so not as many are bothering as last year. The market will shift yes, but it will also rebound just as fast
  • ZiggieTTU
    537 posts An Exciting Prospect
    edited November 2018
    Typically the crash seemed to start in a Sunday when weekend leaguers race to sell up after one more round. Probably next week.

    From the price data last year, it didn’t look like icons and top end cards hit their peak and started ultimate decline until December and toty.

    I have my 2 million parked in 88 Maldini and 90 Del Piero as risk averse options. Never will sell IF Talisca until he gets a TOTY or TOTS.
  • TheArchitect
    941 posts Professional
    edited November 2018
    I have Q about Messi. I almost have the amount to buy him as I think he will only go up? or am I wrong. Dont care about a 50k but 100k+ is a different story
  • Burchy
    731 posts An Exciting Prospect
    All these extra coins that are easily earned may have a big impact on keeping prices up.
  • Del654
    678 posts Semi-Pro
    Last year there was a crash when black Friday was announced but when black Friday come the market went up.
  • Boysie91
    8439 posts League Winner
    Dropping in price now
  • golazo
    1297 posts Play-Off Hero
    I have a team I’m looking to get. On Monday it was worth 4.277m. Now it’s 4.050. Over 200k cheaper in under a week. I’m waiting to buy my team. Think it will go as low as 500k cheaper.
  • Leon0713
    1807 posts Fans' Favourite
    golazo wrote: »
    I have a team I’m looking to get. On Monday it was worth 4.277m. Now it’s 4.050. Over 200k cheaper in under a week. I’m waiting to buy my team. Think it will go as low as 500k cheaper.

    I'd definitely wait a little longer for prices to drop more but don't get too greedy that you end up losing out where prices spike.
  • Brian_024
    75 posts Park Captain
    I have a lot of untradeable and fut champs players so the only players i can sell are KDB fabinho sanchez and ederson.

    Should i keep them or sell them this week.

    Because if i save around 50k i dont think its worth it
  • Mr_Matchup1
    4396 posts National Call-Up
    Brian_024 wrote: »
    I have a lot of untradeable and fut champs players so the only players i can sell are KDB fabinho sanchez and ederson.

    Should i keep them or sell them this week.

    Because if i save around 50k i dont think its worth it

    No point in my opinion like you say your probably make 50 k . Really not a lot of coin this year
  • Afridi19
    158 posts Has Potential To Be Special
    already sold up buying back on BF, worked last year and bought the same team just 300k less and could afford to upgrade my team , so totally worth it
  • Deano95
    122 posts Has Potential To Be Special
    When do you think the likes of cr7 will drop in price?
  • Gainzy
    1047 posts Professional
    I can’t see it being as bad this year. Pack weight is low, so top tier golds and icons aren’t as prevalent. Plus everyone has more coins than in previous years, partly because of rivals rewards and partly because the sbcs we’ve had haven’t been anything to get excited about and drain a load of coins off the market. I’m holding my squad, not playing with Fred, Vardy and Lerma again for 3 weeks just in case I can make 100k in coins.
  • truegunn3r wrote: »
    It’s only been 6 weeks since launch and most of us already have a meta team. Since, the speed in which my team has grown indicates that I don’t need to bother with any crashes during minor promo events. I’d probably only sell my squad during TOTY and TOTS crashes, until then I’ll carry on enjoy playing with my squad.

    Agreed on this is very easy to build a high coin amount from simple trading and just playing the game. You can easily make over 300k a month from SB, DR and WL.
  • jamcd
    454 posts Sunday League Hero
    What a lot of people are missing is that you don't necessarily have to wait the full 3 weeks to buy your team back. I sold on Friday and I'm going to be buying back in 1-2 weeks most likely, when the early/panic crash happens.

    I did just as well with a cheap/untradeable team this weekend as I did with my top tier squad anyway, so I'd rather bank the extra coins to buy a game changing icon.
  • jamcd
    454 posts Sunday League Hero
    truegunn3r wrote: »
    It’s only been 6 weeks since launch and most of us already have a meta team. Since, the speed in which my team has grown indicates that I don’t need to bother with any crashes during minor promo events. I’d probably only sell my squad during TOTY and TOTS crashes, until then I’ll carry on enjoy playing with my squad.

    Agreed on this is very easy to build a high coin amount from simple trading and just playing the game. You can easily make over 300k a month from SB, DR and WL.

    That's true, but how many more coins will you make with a great squad vs a good squad? Better players only seem to give you a slight edge anyway.
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