That's $10 worth of points for a pack at 5%. So if I am guaranteed on I need to open 20 to make it 20%. And I know the weights of cards are even more skewed so I'm more likely to pull an Insigne or Hummel's than a modric or hazard. Don't even get me started on the big one like Messi and neymar. So $200 will guarantee I get most likely will pull a Insigne. $200. 4 times the value of the game. Something that will be worthless in 11 months. Something that does not affect EA if they time it to me. This is greed to the max. Wish it we're FIFA 10 UT times.

4

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## Comments

thats not how it works.

its a 5% chance each time

if you flip a coin its 50-50 heads tails every time. if it comes up heads 4 times in a row, its still 50-50 next flip

The probability does change though, my friend.

5% chance of getting an 88 rated in a single promo pack.

If you opened 100 promo packs, you’d get one. Chance increases the more you open.

it increases because you are buying cards, but nots now how math works. no matter if you buy 1 or a million, your chance is still 5%.

This is true, if you get one in your first pack you have just as much chance of getting one in your next pack.

The question is, what are really the chances of getting one in the first place

Wut, how did you get to "opening 20 packs with a 5% chance equals.... %20"

Maybe you meant 20 packs at 5% would equal %100? Also wrong, for the reason @munchie63 said. They're independent events so there's no guarunteed, EA even states this in the odds explanation

OK to settle this debate with actual knowledge. You are both right, but are using the wrong terms to describe it.

First, each pack opening is an individual event. Meaning that the chances of getting an 88 in any single pack is 5%. That percentage does NOT change between individual events.

NOW.... what the original poster and a few others are describing are the likelihood of getting an 88 over the set of multiple openings. So, put simply, if I open 100 packs what are the odds of me getting 1 88 rated card. You can also run this backwards and ask: How many packs do I have to open to have a 20% chance of getting a single 88 rated card?

When you look at the question this way, this is the probability of a particular event over multiple trials. In that, depending on the event, etc. you can have it where each new trial increases the likelihood of the event occurring. The likelihood of any one pack giving you an 88 DOES NOT CHANGE, but the likelihood of getting 1 88 card over a set of openings CAN increase with the more packs opened (trials).

To solve this, you need the odds of an individual pack opening AND the formula for combinations. For those who slept through high school math, here are some resources:

https://www.mathwarehouse.com/probability/independent-events/multiple-trials/probability-of-exactly-n-times.php

http://www.mathwords.com/c/combination_formula.htm

Ffs this forum is getting worse lol

Tbf what di yiu want a 100%chance a 50%chance I think it's fair tbh

I feel this way every day of my life.... without this forum.... and I am truly terrified when I remember that these people vote....

5%/100 multiplied by 4 packs is 20/400, the chance is still 5%

5%/100 multiplied by 100 packs is 500/10000, the chance is still 5%

Chance does not stack.

The irony

5% chance is 5%

If you open a hundred packs you'll have a bigger deck of cards. But each pack is 5%. The pack generator doesn't know if you've opened 2 or 200 so how can it change odds

but luckily most are young and voted Corbyn and Remain. Thats for another day though

nice....

if i confused you m8 ill make it simple every pack is 5% chance not accumilated over how many you get .

Good luck!

Still be wrong though. His logic would make more sense applied to the lottory. The more tickets you buy the more likely you are to win. Still massively unlikely...But still

But answer this: If I open 7 packs what is the likelihood I will get 1 88 rated card? Not 1 88 rated card from each pack, 1 88 rated card over all of the packs.

Hint: it is NOT 5%.

This is so wrong it just makes me sad. What your showing there in the chance of opening 4 packs and getting an 88 plus card in each 1, not the chance of getting 1 in 4 packs.

Think of it this way, a coin flip has a 50% chance of being heads. So the chances of not getting a head (getting a tail) must also be 50%

If you flipped a coin 10 times do you think the chances of getting at least 1 head is still only 50%? That would mean the chances of NOT getting at least 1 head is also 50%. Meaning it’s as likely to get 10 tails in a row as it is to get 1 head from 10.

If you think that’s the case I’d take that bet against you every day. Let’s make it 100 coin flips. Probability doesn’t change so the chance of getting 1 head in 100 coin flips must be the same as getting 100 tails in a row.

I’d give you damn good odds on that, but you probably wouldn’t understand them

no but its not 35% either is it lol

Nope.... it is 30%.