So 5% to get an 88 rated plus player in a 1000 FP pack

134
FifaKingPin
255 posts Sunday League Hero
That's $10 worth of points for a pack at 5%. So if I am guaranteed on I need to open 20 to make it 20%. And I know the weights of cards are even more skewed so I'm more likely to pull an Insigne or Hummel's than a modric or hazard. Don't even get me started on the big one like Messi and neymar. So $200 will guarantee I get most likely will pull a Insigne. $200. 4 times the value of the game. Something that will be worthless in 11 months. Something that does not affect EA if they time it to me. This is greed to the max. Wish it we're FIFA 10 UT times.

Comments

  • kopking89
    866 posts Professional
    ?
  • GreezyWeezyLDN
    1323 posts Professional
    If screamers and 86+ are less than 1% in most packs, imagine the odds on a R9 Ronaldo. Literally getting down to lottery type probabilities. Madness
  • cule54
    630 posts An Exciting Prospect
    Hmmm that’s not how probability works bud. Even after opening 5 packs the probability of you getting an 88+ is still 5%. It doesn’t magically multiply by four just because you openend 3 packs previously. Yes, it’s even s$&ttier than you think.
  • Kouli06
    1358 posts Professional
    Yet people still pile money into EAs pocket
  • munchie63
    2784 posts Fans' Favourite
    you dont increase your chances the more packs you buy mate.

    thats not how it works.

    its a 5% chance each time

    if you flip a coin its 50-50 heads tails every time. if it comes up heads 4 times in a row, its still 50-50 next flip
  • BettySwollocks
    233 posts Sunday League Hero
    cule54 wrote: »
    Hmmm that’s not how probability works bud. Even after opening 5 packs the probability of you getting an 88+ is still 5%. It doesn’t magically multiply by four just because you openend 3 packs previously. Yes, it’s even s$&ttier than you think.

    The probability does change though, my friend.

    5% chance of getting an 88 rated in a single promo pack.

    If you opened 100 promo packs, you’d get one. Chance increases the more you open.
  • jimmygesus
    20 posts Last Pick at the Park
    cule54 wrote: »
    Hmmm that’s not how probability works bud. Even after opening 5 packs the probability of you getting an 88+ is still 5%. It doesn’t magically multiply by four just because you openend 3 packs previously. Yes, it’s even s$&ttier than you think.

    The probability does change though, my friend.

    5% chance of getting an 88 rated in a single promo pack.

    If you opened 100 promo packs, you’d get one. Chance increases the more you open.

    it increases because you are buying cards, but nots now how math works. no matter if you buy 1 or a million, your chance is still 5%.
  • GreezyWeezyLDN
    1323 posts Professional
    jimmygesus wrote: »
    cule54 wrote: »
    Hmmm that’s not how probability works bud. Even after opening 5 packs the probability of you getting an 88+ is still 5%. It doesn’t magically multiply by four just because you openend 3 packs previously. Yes, it’s even s$&ttier than you think.

    The probability does change though, my friend.

    5% chance of getting an 88 rated in a single promo pack.

    If you opened 100 promo packs, you’d get one. Chance increases the more you open.

    it increases because you are buying cards, but nots now how math works. no matter if you buy 1 or a million, your chance is still 5%.

    This is true, if you get one in your first pack you have just as much chance of getting one in your next pack.

    The question is, what are really the chances of getting one in the first place
  • Clancy
    7734 posts League Winner
    That's $10 worth of points for a pack at 5%. So if I am guaranteed on I need to open 20 to make it 20%.

    Wut, how did you get to "opening 20 packs with a 5% chance equals.... %20"

    Maybe you meant 20 packs at 5% would equal %100? Also wrong, for the reason @munchie63 said. They're independent events so there's no guarunteed, EA even states this in the odds explanation
  • DutyHarry
    4438 posts National Call-Up
    Clancy wrote: »
    That's $10 worth of points for a pack at 5%. So if I am guaranteed on I need to open 20 to make it 20%.

    Wut, how did you get to "opening 20 packs with a 5% chance equals.... %20"

    Maybe you meant 20 packs at 5% would equal %100? Also wrong, for the reason @munchie63 said. They're independent events so there's no guarunteed, EA even states this in the odds explanation
    Quick mafs... and we still wonder how EA still stells so many FP? I don't know if I have to laugh or cry at this. :/
  • CtldChaos
    2047 posts Fans' Favourite
    cule54 wrote: »
    Hmmm that’s not how probability works bud. Even after opening 5 packs the probability of you getting an 88+ is still 5%. It doesn’t magically multiply by four just because you openend 3 packs previously. Yes, it’s even s$&ttier than you think.

    The probability does change though, my friend.

    5% chance of getting an 88 rated in a single promo pack.

    If you opened 100 promo packs, you’d get one. Chance increases the more you open.

    OK to settle this debate with actual knowledge. You are both right, but are using the wrong terms to describe it.

    First, each pack opening is an individual event. Meaning that the chances of getting an 88 in any single pack is 5%. That percentage does NOT change between individual events.

    NOW.... what the original poster and a few others are describing are the likelihood of getting an 88 over the set of multiple openings. So, put simply, if I open 100 packs what are the odds of me getting 1 88 rated card. You can also run this backwards and ask: How many packs do I have to open to have a 20% chance of getting a single 88 rated card?

    When you look at the question this way, this is the probability of a particular event over multiple trials. In that, depending on the event, etc. you can have it where each new trial increases the likelihood of the event occurring. The likelihood of any one pack giving you an 88 DOES NOT CHANGE, but the likelihood of getting 1 88 card over a set of openings CAN increase with the more packs opened (trials).

    To solve this, you need the odds of an individual pack opening AND the formula for combinations. For those who slept through high school math, here are some resources:

    https://www.mathwarehouse.com/probability/independent-events/multiple-trials/probability-of-exactly-n-times.php

    http://www.mathwords.com/c/combination_formula.htm
  • Williejno1
    3084 posts National Call-Up
    That's $10 worth of points for a pack at 5%. So if I am guaranteed on I need to open 20 to make it 20%. And I know the weights of cards are even more skewed so I'm more likely to pull an Insigne or Hummel's than a modric or hazard. Don't even get me started on the big one like Messi and neymar. So $200 will guarantee I get most likely will pull a Insigne. $200. 4 times the value of the game. Something that will be worthless in 11 months. Something that does not affect EA if they time it to me. This is greed to the max. Wish it we're FIFA 10 UT times.

    Ffs this forum is getting worse lol
  • Thefranchise92
    2793 posts National Call-Up
    That's $10 worth of points for a pack at 5%. So if I am guaranteed on I need to open 20 to make it 20%. And I know the weights of cards are even more skewed so I'm more likely to pull an Insigne or Hummel's than a modric or hazard. Don't even get me started on the big one like Messi and neymar. So $200 will guarantee I get most likely will pull a Insigne. $200. 4 times the value of the game. Something that will be worthless in 11 months. Something that does not affect EA if they time it to me. This is greed to the max. Wish it we're FIFA 10 UT times.

    Tbf what di yiu want a 100%chance a 50%chance I think it's fair tbh
  • Ronaldo
    3740 posts National Call-Up
    This deserves to be closed
  • Ben7777
    310 posts Sunday League Hero
    I am going to pretend i didn't see this thread before i question the education system.
  • CtldChaos
    2047 posts Fans' Favourite
    Ben7777 wrote: »
    I am going to pretend i didn't see this thread before i question the education system.

    I feel this way every day of my life.... without this forum.... and I am truly terrified when I remember that these people vote....
  • Ben7777
    310 posts Sunday League Hero
    cule54 wrote: »
    Hmmm that’s not how probability works bud. Even after opening 5 packs the probability of you getting an 88+ is still 5%. It doesn’t magically multiply by four just because you openend 3 packs previously. Yes, it’s even s$&ttier than you think.

    The probability does change though, my friend.

    5% chance of getting an 88 rated in a single promo pack.

    If you opened 100 promo packs, you’d get one. Chance increases the more you open.

    5%/100 multiplied by 4 packs is 20/400, the chance is still 5%
    5%/100 multiplied by 100 packs is 500/10000, the chance is still 5%
    Chance does not stack.
  • deang07
    7921 posts League Winner
    wow i dunno how some serious ppl get through life , probability does not work that way for 1 and secondly all players playing and opening goes towards odds not u as a single u cud get an 88 in 1 attempt or take 100 attempts.
  • GreezyWeezyLDN
    1323 posts Professional
    deang07 wrote: »
    wow i dunno how some serious ppl get through life , probability does not work that way for 1 and secondly all players playing and opening goes towards odds not u as a single u cud get an 88 in 1 attempt or take 100 attempts.

    The irony
  • munchie63
    2784 posts Fans' Favourite
    this has been said before. But some of these guys are the ones who would walk into a casino and put their pay packet on red simply because the roulette ball has landed on black the last 4 times

    5% chance is 5%

    If you open a hundred packs you'll have a bigger deck of cards. But each pack is 5%. The pack generator doesn't know if you've opened 2 or 200 so how can it change odds
  • munchie63
    2784 posts Fans' Favourite
    CtldChaos wrote: »
    Ben7777 wrote: »
    I am going to pretend i didn't see this thread before i question the education system.

    I feel this way every day of my life.... without this forum.... and I am truly terrified when I remember that these people vote....

    but luckily most are young and voted Corbyn and Remain. Thats for another day though
  • CtldChaos
    2047 posts Fans' Favourite
    munchie63 wrote: »
    CtldChaos wrote: »
    Ben7777 wrote: »
    I am going to pretend i didn't see this thread before i question the education system.

    I feel this way every day of my life.... without this forum.... and I am truly terrified when I remember that these people vote....

    but luckily most are young and voted Corbyn and Remain. Thats for another day though

    nice....
  • DutyHarry
    4438 posts National Call-Up
    If you couldn't get duplicates just like in PES, the OP's logic would have made more sense.
  • deang07
    7921 posts League Winner
    deang07 wrote: »
    wow i dunno how some serious ppl get through life , probability does not work that way for 1 and secondly all players playing and opening goes towards odds not u as a single u cud get an 88 in 1 attempt or take 100 attempts.

    The irony

    if i confused you m8 ill make it simple every pack is 5% chance not accumilated over how many you get .
  • Caspertjuh
    732 posts An Exciting Prospect
    To calculate your chance of packing an 88+ for number of packs opened, this is the formula 1-0.95^n where n = number of packs opened. So when you open all 7 your odd is 30%.

    Good luck!
  • GreezyWeezyLDN
    1323 posts Professional
    edited October 2018
    DutyHarry wrote: »
    If you couldn't get duplicates just like in PES, the OP's logic would have made more sense.

    Still be wrong though. His logic would make more sense applied to the lottory. The more tickets you buy the more likely you are to win. Still massively unlikely...But still
  • CtldChaos
    2047 posts Fans' Favourite
    edited October 2018
    deang07 wrote: »
    deang07 wrote: »
    wow i dunno how some serious ppl get through life , probability does not work that way for 1 and secondly all players playing and opening goes towards odds not u as a single u cud get an 88 in 1 attempt or take 100 attempts.

    The irony

    if i confused you m8 ill make it simple every pack is 5% chance not accumilated over how many you get .

    But answer this: If I open 7 packs what is the likelihood I will get 1 88 rated card? Not 1 88 rated card from each pack, 1 88 rated card over all of the packs.

    Hint: it is NOT 5%.
  • kraid
    1898 posts Play-Off Hero
    Ben7777 wrote: »
    cule54 wrote: »
    Hmmm that’s not how probability works bud. Even after opening 5 packs the probability of you getting an 88+ is still 5%. It doesn’t magically multiply by four just because you openend 3 packs previously. Yes, it’s even s$&ttier than you think.

    The probability does change though, my friend.

    5% chance of getting an 88 rated in a single promo pack.

    If you opened 100 promo packs, you’d get one. Chance increases the more you open.

    5%/100 multiplied by 4 packs is 20/400, the chance is still 5%
    5%/100 multiplied by 100 packs is 500/10000, the chance is still 5%
    Chance does not stack.

    This is so wrong it just makes me sad. What your showing there in the chance of opening 4 packs and getting an 88 plus card in each 1, not the chance of getting 1 in 4 packs.

    Think of it this way, a coin flip has a 50% chance of being heads. So the chances of not getting a head (getting a tail) must also be 50%
    If you flipped a coin 10 times do you think the chances of getting at least 1 head is still only 50%? That would mean the chances of NOT getting at least 1 head is also 50%. Meaning it’s as likely to get 10 tails in a row as it is to get 1 head from 10.

    If you think that’s the case I’d take that bet against you every day. Let’s make it 100 coin flips. Probability doesn’t change so the chance of getting 1 head in 100 coin flips must be the same as getting 100 tails in a row.

    I’d give you damn good odds on that, but you probably wouldn’t understand them
  • deang07
    7921 posts League Winner
    CtldChaos wrote: »
    deang07 wrote: »
    deang07 wrote: »
    wow i dunno how some serious ppl get through life , probability does not work that way for 1 and secondly all players playing and opening goes towards odds not u as a single u cud get an 88 in 1 attempt or take 100 attempts.

    The irony

    if i confused you m8 ill make it simple every pack is 5% chance not accumilated over how many you get .

    But answer this: If I open 7 packs what is the likelihood I will get 1 88 rated card? Not 1 88 rated card from each pack, 1 88 rated card over all of the packs.

    Hint: it is NOT 5%.

    no but its not 35% either is it lol
  • CtldChaos
    2047 posts Fans' Favourite
    deang07 wrote: »
    CtldChaos wrote: »
    deang07 wrote: »
    deang07 wrote: »
    wow i dunno how some serious ppl get through life , probability does not work that way for 1 and secondly all players playing and opening goes towards odds not u as a single u cud get an 88 in 1 attempt or take 100 attempts.

    The irony

    if i confused you m8 ill make it simple every pack is 5% chance not accumilated over how many you get .

    But answer this: If I open 7 packs what is the likelihood I will get 1 88 rated card? Not 1 88 rated card from each pack, 1 88 rated card over all of the packs.

    Hint: it is NOT 5%.

    no but its not 35% either is it lol

    Nope.... it is 30%.
    Caspertjuh wrote: »
    To calculate your chance of packing an 88+ for number of packs opened, this is the formula 1-0.95^n where n = number of packs opened. So when you open all 7 your odd is 30%.

    Good luck!

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