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Theory on why packs may not seem random

Ryno
6532 posts Big Money Move
edited September 2018
A recent thread and my response to it got me thinking about what the true inner mechanisms of pack odds could be. For example, we all know that guy with insane pack luck, or know that friend who made a new account and got really good players in his first few packs.

My theory is that packs are based on randomness, algortihmically. This means that packs are deterministic (meaning it is not truly random). This also means packs follow at least these 4 characteristics:
- Random (in that they follow average statistical outputs)
- Efficient (done in a timely manner)
- Controllable (capable of being reproduced)
- Portable (able to be done on a range of systems and devices)

There is actually a fifth characteristic, documented, but I feel like EA obviously does this testing and isn't worth mentioning.

So if this is all true about packs, then what this COULD mean is packs aren't based on pure randomness across all accounts on all systems, but rather on SEED VALUES. Like in Minecraft how seeds are randomized and produce random terrain? Yes, just like that.

So some accounts get seeds with all the good stuff right away, and others are a little more unlucky. I believe this is the most probable and likely situation.

So to all the kids whining because other people are luckier than them? Your seed value just hasn't paid out yet. Maybe it will soon, maybe it never will? Thats the beauty of "randomness" in an algorithmic sense.

Another thing I would like too add is that random generators usually have so many variables that is becomes near impossible to predict, so there isnt a way to game the system

Comments

  • Pikachu
    8934 posts League Winner
    :confused:

    Yes.
  • Ryno
    6532 posts Big Money Move
    Pikachu wrote: »
    :confused:

    Yes.

    Yes.
  • Blarix
    20845 posts Club Captain
    Bad pack luck huh?
  • Surfy
    1133 posts Professional
    I can see this being a thing. EA has all of the spending habits of each account. An example of how this could be used is a person opens packs during big promotions TOTY, and OTW ETC. Last promotion the person didn't receive a big player 86+ rated lets say. Then they skipped out on the next promotion. Obviously that's simplified version of it.
  • RealM
    6156 posts Big Money Move
    " Your seed value just hasn't paid out yet "

    I been waiting 9 years for Ronaldo/Messi/NIF over 200k/TOTY/Legends/Icon :D
  • Ryno
    6532 posts Big Money Move
    RealM wrote: »
    " Your seed value just hasn't paid out yet "

    I been waiting 9 years for Ronaldo/Messi/NIF over 200k/TOTY/Legends/Icon :D

    Gotta make it sound somewhat optimistic :sweat_smile:
  • IDARYL
    5774 posts Big Money Move
    Ea cant create lag free servers, never mind this...packs are luck and that's it
  • S P 4 C E Y
    2436 posts Fans' Favourite
    RealM wrote: »
    " Your seed value just hasn't paid out yet "

    I been waiting 9 years for Ronaldo/Messi/NIF over 200k/TOTY/Legends/Icon :D

    Put me down to 10 years - had it since fifa 10 and yet to pull anything worth proper money.

    £30 spent on the game this year. Zero will be spent for the rest of the game.
  • Recardo
    9099 posts League Winner
    i can give you 5 billion reasons.
  • Ryno
    6532 posts Big Money Move
    IDARYL wrote: »
    Ea cant create lag free servers, never mind this...packs are luck and that's it

    I mean, of course packs are luck because you are playing an odds game.

    My point has to do with the feeling of randomness and why it doesn't feel random to some
  • Freyr
    45 posts Last Pick at the Park
    RealM wrote: »
    " Your seed value just hasn't paid out yet "

    I been waiting 9 years for Ronaldo/Messi/NIF over 200k/TOTY/Legends/Icon :D

    Same apart from the NIF part.

    Packvalue in all those years combined must easily go into the houndreds of millions, can't believe I still haven't packed CR7 or Messi
  • Tof33z
    7042 posts Big Money Move
    It's highly unlikely each account has its own seed value. This would serve no purpose over having a single seed and a server side rng that then governs every pack opening.
  • Ryno
    6532 posts Big Money Move
    Tof33z wrote: »
    It's highly unlikely each account has its own seed value. This would serve no purpose over having a single seed and a server side rng that then governs every pack opening.

    Seed value could be a reason why people feel some accounts are luckier than others.

    If everyone felt the same amount of luck, then I would certainly agree, but it is a plausible thought
  • The other reason people think they are lucky/unlucky is more simple; packs are entirely random, and those people are right both ways.

    Imagine all users plotted onto a graph, with the value of their historical pack pulls on the Y axis. You can almost guarantee you would be looking at a bell curve.

    So there will be a group of people who have had great pulls, and a group who have had terrible pulls.

    Basically, just because the packs are random, does not mean everyone will get the same value from packs.
  • Tof33z
    7042 posts Big Money Move
    Types of apophenia

    Many superstitions are the result of apophenia.

    Some phenomena classified under the general umbrella of apophenia include:

    Clustering illusion: Related to an inability to recognise actual random patterns. Uneven clusters caused by true randomness are mistaken for patterns.
    Confirmation bias: A bias towards testing to confirm one's hypothesis rather than disprove it.
    Gambler's fallacy: Feeling that past events reflect and alter probability when, in fact, they don't.
    Pareidolia: Seeing shapes, most often faces, in random patterns. Mars Anomaly Research and Lunar anomalies are replete with examples.
  • DobbyDooDah
    5710 posts Big Money Move
    RealM wrote: »
    " Your seed value just hasn't paid out yet "

    I been waiting 9 years for Ronaldo/Messi/NIF over 200k/TOTY/Legends/Icon :D

    I’ve packed Ronaldo once in all FUT, I’m a FUT Founder from 2008/9.
    I’ve had one or Legend/Icon from any packs and it was low level (Campbell).
    I’ve never packed Messi.
    FUT Champs I did okay in packs. TIF NainG and similar players and the guaranteed legends from T100 monthly I got Larsson and Shevchenko, no absolute monsters from any monthlies.

    I’ve had what I would suggest is below average pack luck overall.
  • BWild
    3700 posts National Call-Up
    The main conspiracy theory I believe is that they lower pack weights during promos/high volume of packs are being opened
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