Pack probability on FUT19 !

13

Comments

  • Alemas_2012
    17920 posts World Class
    edited September 2018
    Very good to know.
    Problem is, from what I've read, you see the pack probabilities only from the store page and not when you choose WL/SB/Rivals rewards, which is what I'd really like to know before choosing which type of reward I want...
  • WarrenBarton
    10455 posts Has That Special Something
    It’s a bit vague imo
  • cavaca
    125 posts Has Potential To Be Special
    Very good to know.
    Problem is, from what I've read, you see the pack probabilities only from the store page and not when you choose WL/SB/Rivals rewards, which is what I'd really like to know before choosing which type of reward I want...

    I assume they only have the obligation to show odds for the cash bought packs, not for the ones that they “gift you”.

  • mdizzl3
    12418 posts Has That Special Something
    That seems a bit high, a 84 rated or above player every 20.packs?
  • JohnDoe
    11847 posts Has That Special Something
    edited September 2018
    mdizzl3 wrote: »
    That seems a bit high, a 84 rated or above player every 20.packs?

    inb4 tHaT's nOt HoW pAcK oDdS wOrK
  • WFCBagnall
    78796 posts Moderator
    mdizzl3 wrote: »
    That seems a bit high, a 84 rated or above player every 20.packs?

    For a 7.5k pack, I'd say that's right
  • I SiR MartY I
    5846 posts Big Money Move
    4.5% chance to get a 84+ rated player

    Packs a mugs game
  • greif44
    3655 posts National Call-Up
    I`ll open 80 packs on wednesday and see how my pulls will correspond with this info
  • Whoman
    5981 posts Big Money Move
    edited September 2018
    Starting at launch, FIFA 19 will begin displaying pack probabilities, which will detail the likelihood of what you will get in every pack that you purchase. We believe that providing you with this information will help you make decisions on where you want to invest your FIFA Points, FUT Coins, and time in order to build your best FUT squad. will help us cover our ❤️❤️❤️❤️ in future legal battles regarding the legality of our business model

    o:)

    And there is no way a 7.5 Pack has 20% chance on an 82+ player. Everybody that put coins into WC mode (and got a ❤️❤️❤️❤️ of 7.5k packs in regular FUT) can vouch for that.
  • Retro_G
    33018 posts National Team Captain
    4.5% for an 84+ isn't too bad, was expecting worse odds.
  • Retro_G
    33018 posts National Team Captain
    NornIron wrote: »
    Retro_G wrote: »
    4.5% for an 84+ isn't too bad, was expecting worse odds.

    Yeah I cant wait to pull Jonas, W Carvalho, Mandzukic and De Vrij every 20 packs.

    :D True that!
  • Tof33z
    7042 posts Big Money Move
    edited September 2018
    Question is what's the percentage for 85+ ot 86+ et.c. If 95% of 84+ is 84 then it's pretty bad. They're basically telling you nothing
  • Dasco
    6529 posts Big Money Move
    NornIron wrote: »
    Retro_G wrote: »
    4.5% for an 84+ isn't too bad, was expecting worse odds.

    Yeah I cant wait to pull Jonas, W Carvalho, Mandzukic and De Vrij every 20 packs.

    Yup, and that's yer 4 for the 12K FP's you put in.
  • Dasco wrote: »
    NornIron wrote: »
    Retro_G wrote: »
    4.5% for an 84+ isn't too bad, was expecting worse odds.

    Yeah I cant wait to pull Jonas, W Carvalho, Mandzukic and De Vrij every 20 packs.

    Yup, and that's yer 4 for the 12K FP's you put in.

    wow that's put into context for me
  • Dasco
    6529 posts Big Money Move
    edited September 2018
    Dasco wrote: »
    NornIron wrote: »
    Retro_G wrote: »
    4.5% for an 84+ isn't too bad, was expecting worse odds.

    Yeah I cant wait to pull Jonas, W Carvalho, Mandzukic and De Vrij every 20 packs.

    Yup, and that's yer 4 for the 12K FP's you put in.

    wow that's put into context for me

    Yeah. What I want to know is the probability of hitting ANY icon. Now that'd be more worthwhile, and let's be honest, most people are opening packs to hit elite players, not just 84's.

    Edit :- So EA have told us the probability of hitting an 84 is 4.5%. What that doesn't answer is the probability of hitting the best players, so the 88+'s, the icons, the informs. Basically what @Tof33z has said.
  • anaughtysausage
    220 posts Has Potential To Be Special
    edited September 2018
    That image is just a example of how it works they won't be them odds on release
  • greif44
    3655 posts National Call-Up
    Tof33z wrote: »
    Question is what's the percentage for 85+ ot 86+ et.c. If 95% of 84+ is 84 then it's pretty bad. They're basically telling you nothing

    I doubt that 84 and all the 85+ rated players, especially icons, are distributed in packs equally.
  • Alemas_2012
    17920 posts World Class
    Those probabilities are likely calculated via millions and millions of pack opening simulations.
    Whether that will correlate to the same probability from... I don't know, 20 or 50 packs, is highly doubtful.
    So what should really be written there is "certain", "not very likely", and "not likely"...
  • Dasco wrote: »
    Dasco wrote: »
    NornIron wrote: »
    Retro_G wrote: »
    4.5% for an 84+ isn't too bad, was expecting worse odds.

    Yeah I cant wait to pull Jonas, W Carvalho, Mandzukic and De Vrij every 20 packs.

    Yup, and that's yer 4 for the 12K FP's you put in.

    wow that's put into context for me

    Yeah. What I want to know is the probability of hitting ANY icon. Now that'd be more worthwhile, and let's be honest, most people are opening packs to hit elite players, not just 84's.

    think you have more chance sleeping with the Icon then packing him
  • NornIron
    13799 posts Has That Special Something
    Should have shown what 85+ was probably about 1.5 or 2%. I dont even open many packs and must have packed Jonas, Dzeko etc about 30 times each this year.
  • Moose Factory
    4593 posts National Call-Up
    edited September 2018
    1000% Chance to pack 3 "rare" gold contracts in every premium gold pack.
  • JohnDoe
    11847 posts Has That Special Something
    Those probabilities are likely calculated via millions and millions of pack opening simulations.
    Whether that will correlate to the same probability from... I don't know, 20 or 50 packs, is highly doubtful.
    So what should really be written there is "certain", "not very likely", and "not likely"...

    Simulations have nothing to do with it. Pack odds aren't given to us by the divine providence, they're programmed by EA. They know the actual odds of packing certain players.

    I just wish he had something a little more specific than this.
  • bjornini
    4235 posts National Call-Up
    Whoman wrote: »
    Starting at launch, FIFA 19 will begin displaying pack probabilities, which will detail the likelihood of what you will get in every pack that you purchase. We believe that providing you with this information will help you make decisions on where you want to invest your FIFA Points, FUT Coins, and time in order to build your best FUT squad. will help us cover our **** in future legal battles regarding the legality of our business model

    o:)

    And there is no way a 7.5 Pack has 20% chance on an 82+ player. Everybody that put coins into WC mode (and got a **** of 7.5k packs in regular FUT) can vouch for that.

    To be fair, I opened only 30 or so of WC 7.5k free packs and packed Fof Ronaldo so...
  • Alemas_2012
    17920 posts World Class
    JohnDoe wrote: »
    Those probabilities are likely calculated via millions and millions of pack opening simulations.
    Whether that will correlate to the same probability from... I don't know, 20 or 50 packs, is highly doubtful.
    So what should really be written there is "certain", "not very likely", and "not likely"...

    Simulations have nothing to do with it. Pack odds aren't given to us by the divine providence, they're programmed by EA. They know the actual odds of packing certain players.

    I just wish he had something a little more specific than this.

    Probably it's just something to cover their legal backsides.
    "It's not gambling if you know the chances of what you're going to get!"...
  • fighter__noir
    636 posts An Exciting Prospect
    Can't wait for all the topics moaning about not getting a 82+ player after 5 packs cause 5 x 20% is 100% :D
  • azza452
    1367 posts Professional
    Chance to pack Ronaldo
    0.0000000000000001%
  • Alemas_2012
    17920 posts World Class
    Can't wait for all the topics moaning about not getting a 82+ player after 5 packs cause 5 x 20% is 100% :D

    We're going to see a lot of probability fails in the forums. :joy:
  • Dasco
    6529 posts Big Money Move
    Can't wait for all the topics moaning about not getting a 82+ player after 5 packs cause 5 x 20% is 100% :D

    We're going to see a lot of probability fails in the forums. :joy:

    Mods going to have the following on copy & paste in a heartbeat ;

    "Any probability percentages that you see are on a pack-by-pack basis and are not cumulative. That means that each pack opening is an independent event; opening multiple packs does not change the likelihood of being awarded an item from a specific category. If you flip a coin three times and get heads each time, you still have a 50% chance of getting heads if you flip the coin again. "
  • emylonas
    820 posts Semi-Pro
    edited September 2018
    Retro_G wrote: »
    4.5% for an 84+ isn't too bad, was expecting worse odds.
    Retro_G wrote: »
    4.5% for an 84+ isn't too bad, was expecting worse odds.

    Don’t celebrate too fast. That 4.5% may easily mean 4.49% for the 84 and 0.01% for the +. 😀😀😀

    Additionaly there are so many different other flavors that are not covered by that image, such as TOTW, Icons, etc...
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