The latest Title Update for FIFA 20 is now available on PC and includes the changes listed here.

Here is a look at how pack odds may work in FIFA 19

Ryno
6532 posts Big Money Move
edited July 2018
FUT Mobile has added pack odds to their packs, examples of which can be found here:

https://www.futhead.com/news/fifa-mobile/1897/fifa-mobile-18-pack-odds-reveal-display/

This brings some interesting questions regarding FIFA 19: will we get new packs similar to those in MUT or FUTMobile? will they be releasing new packs with increased odds, similar to how happy hours used to be? Or will we just get the pack odds they have at launch and keep them that way all year?

Thoughts?

Comments

  • maksi
    6617 posts Big Money Move
    edited July 2018
    There is no way they will reveal super low 85+ percentages, it would kill their business.
  • VagisilFC
    1445 posts Play-Off Hero
    It will be impossible for them to accurately publish the odds of packing certain rated players. They could publish the base odds but each account has a modifier based on whether the account purchased the previous years game, and a duplication modifier which would depend on the players in your club.


    EA also manipulate the odds based on limited time SBC requirements. MM for example require players from certain clubs. During that week the odds of packing a player from those clubs is increased to guarantee a certain amount of supply.

    Right at the start of FIFA18 we had the Alka Superliga player of the year SBC that required players from that league. Imagine our surprise when every silver reward pack had Alka Superliga players in them. :/
    basically they would have to have a disclaimer that odds are changed from time to time based on promotions and game requirements.
  • CtldChaos
    2205 posts Fans' Favourite
    VagisilFC wrote: »
    It will be impossible for them to accurately publish the odds of packing certain rated players. They could publish the base odds but each account has a modifier based on whether the account purchased the previous years game, and a duplication modifier which would depend on the players in your club.


    EA also manipulate the odds based on limited time SBC requirements. MM for example require players from certain clubs. During that week the odds of packing a player from those clubs is increased to guarantee a certain amount of supply.

    Right at the start of FIFA18 we had the Alka Superliga player of the year SBC that required players from that league. Imagine our surprise when every silver reward pack had Alka Superliga players in them. :/
    basically they would have to have a disclaimer that odds are changed from time to time based on promotions and game requirements.

    Can you please cite your sources for these claims? Or are you making these assertions based on comments and anecdotal experience? I am asking, because on something like this, you want to make sure we deal in facts, not speculations.
  • VagisilFC
    1445 posts Play-Off Hero
    CtldChaos wrote: »
    VagisilFC wrote: »
    It will be impossible for them to accurately publish the odds of packing certain rated players. They could publish the base odds but each account has a modifier based on whether the account purchased the previous years game, and a duplication modifier which would depend on the players in your club.


    EA also manipulate the odds based on limited time SBC requirements. MM for example require players from certain clubs. During that week the odds of packing a player from those clubs is increased to guarantee a certain amount of supply.

    Right at the start of FIFA18 we had the Alka Superliga player of the year SBC that required players from that league. Imagine our surprise when every silver reward pack had Alka Superliga players in them. :/
    basically they would have to have a disclaimer that odds are changed from time to time based on promotions and game requirements.

    Can you please cite your sources for these claims? Or are you making these assertions based on comments and anecdotal experience? I am asking, because on something like this, you want to make sure we deal in facts, not speculations.

    I do a PACK ONLY club where I track which players I have through an excel database. I don't sell or use original packed players in SBC's, I only sell duplicates.

    When you do this you notice patterns in the way items appear in packs. I stand by all my statements based off my experiences; however if you want a clear cut example, the one of the Allsvenskan POTY Anders Christiansen which occurred in the first few weeks after release is the most obvious.

    With so few players in circulation at that stage and most Allsvenskan players being of Silver quality, EA had to raise the packweight of Allsvenskan players to ensure supply of enough require players for an SBC requiring a min. 4 Allsvenskan players. The silver players packs they released where full of them.


    During Halloween the flash SBC's that had specific club requirements based on bats or hounds in the club badge; all of a sudden more of those players were packed.

    The easiest thing for you to do to observe this is to note how many players from MM in any given week you pack ( assuming they are clubs with gold players. Obviously your not likely to pack silver and bronze players from gold packs)
    You will find that you will pack on average 6 out of the 8 clubs over the week.

    As for the duplication modifier when you pack all duplicates in silver and bronze packs and still have 6000 and 3500+ still unpacked respectfully the laws of probability confirm its existence.



  • Slideman1187
    959 posts Professional
    Only pattern i noticed was when Harit were flooding the market.. my guess i was in 70% of packs containing gold players at that time
  • tzinc
    1594 posts Play-Off Hero
    CtldChaos wrote: »
    VagisilFC wrote: »
    It will be impossible for them to accurately publish the odds of packing certain rated players. They could publish the base odds but each account has a modifier based on whether the account purchased the previous years game, and a duplication modifier which would depend on the players in your club.


    EA also manipulate the odds based on limited time SBC requirements. MM for example require players from certain clubs. During that week the odds of packing a player from those clubs is increased to guarantee a certain amount of supply.

    Right at the start of FIFA18 we had the Alka Superliga player of the year SBC that required players from that league. Imagine our surprise when every silver reward pack had Alka Superliga players in them. :/
    basically they would have to have a disclaimer that odds are changed from time to time based on promotions and game requirements.

    Can you please cite your sources for these claims? Or are you making these assertions based on comments and anecdotal experience? I am asking, because on something like this, you want to make sure we deal in facts, not speculations.

    one word Harit

    look at the poll asking how many got him
  • Woodersinho
    628 posts An Exciting Prospect
    VagisilFC wrote: »
    EA also manipulate the odds based on limited time SBC requirements. MM for example require players from certain clubs. During that week the odds of packing a player from those clubs is increased to guarantee a certain amount of supply.

    I'd noticed and assumed it to be the case but was never sure if this was fact or I was just noticing them because of a recency bias. Even this morning I bought an Atletico player then from the reward pack got 2 Atletico players. Interesting if you've actually tracked it via a spreadsheet
  • Anarki301
    348 posts Sunday League Hero
    maksi wrote: »
    There is no way they will reveal super low 85+ percentages, it would kill their business.

    Why would it kill their business? I mean, everybody already knows how bad packs are, publishing odds wouldn't change much, it would only make it a little bit more fair.

    Also, people who spent a lot of money on packs, they don't do it to pack some specific card, they do it to make coins and then use that coins to buy cards they want, so, I don't think that would ever change, regardless of odds.
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