BLACK FRIDAY EVENT |MARKET SWINGS| EXPECTATIONS

134
Blarix
14628 posts Has That Special Something
It's that time of the year again, full of joy, disappointments and disagreements.

Will try to explain roughly the how's and the why's around this very confusing times for most FUT users.

-When to buy
-When to Sell
-What to expect when the actual day comes around.
-Gold players
-Icons
-Promo's


Q: Did you miss the crash or is the crash going to happen ?

A: To keep it simple you have not missed the crash and is going to come around soon.

Q: Why are prices rising instead of going down?

A: This is the period that is know as the ''Dead cat bounce'' which roughly translates to this:

''a temporary recovery in share prices after a substantial fall, caused by speculators buying in order to cover their positions.'' a.k.a panic buying.

dead-cat-bounce.jpg


This happens every year without a single fail, whether it's influenced by youtubers/streamers or forums, panic buying always get rampant for short period of time before the inevitable decline towards crash.

Pro tip: If you did buy players/holding them right now is the perfect time to sell to maximise profit.



Promo packs: This is the first year in a very long time that we didn't see 50/100k packs and it will have huge impact on the market and IMO will flatten the market.


When to buy gold players :

-Best time to buy players under 200k is DURING promo packs as they will be packed at insane high rates, they have always been the lowest during lighting rounds (open bid is your best friend) .

-Mid tier-high level Golds will come down naturally with the market dipping.


Icons:

This is one requires a lot of patience but from what I have seen the drop so far wasn't anything drastic compared to last few years.

The Icon market will be very much stable and ''artificially'' inflated for most of this week before it comes down drastically (guess work: Saturday they'll start going down). If you're buying now you're buying into the hype created by certain youtubers that will 100% cash out by the end of this week. This period is the waiting period and where most traders have the hardest time being patient but it will pay off.

Black Friday: From previous years I have noticed prices are always lowest during the 100k lighting rounds across the board, as most people by this time have already bought up and with influx of new cards on the market the under cutting is a joy to watch. I include cyber Monday as part of the BF weekend and promo's will spit out bunch of new cards with not many buyers to pick up the deals, it's a very risky move but one that could benefit you the most if you time it correct.

Most important tip that I can give anyone is to SET A TARGET PRICE for the cards you want to buy and once it hits it buy and don't look back.




PATIENCE


Happy hunting!

Comments

  • Joestoe
    1965 posts Fans' Favourite
    Alright, nice guide. But here's a tricky question. I'm going to spend some money (read; quite a decent sum of money) on Black Friday Promo packs. What if I pack someone who's value is 200k+. Is it smart to sell immediately and buy back the players I'm aiming for to use in my team, or should I wait a bit until prices are stabilized back up? Once again, nice guide. I was anticipating the dead cat bounce as well, so I'm about to sell a decent chunk of players in order to invest in a day or two.
  • Messi181
    259 posts Sunday League Hero
    Interesting explanation. Could be right, mainly about promo packs as unlike other years we havnt received them yet.
  • Clancy
    6576 posts Big Money Move
    Imagine the scenes if they didn't do a black Friday this year. There would be pandemonium
  • Blarix
    14628 posts Has That Special Something
    Joestoe wrote: »
    Alright, nice guide. But here's a tricky question. I'm going to spend some money (read; quite a decent sum of money) on Black Friday Promo packs. What if I pack someone who's value is 200k+. Is it smart to sell immediately and buy back the players I'm aiming for to use in my team, or should I wait a bit until prices are stabilized back up? Once again, nice guide. I was anticipating the dead cat bounce as well, so I'm about to sell a decent chunk of players in order to invest in a day or two.

    It's all relative.

    For example you pack a player that is 200k but you want a player that is 400k .

    A: 200k player will go up to say 400k but the 400k player you were after will rise as well to 600k so it's always a cat & mouse sort of thing. I personally would sell to invest in players that I know would rise more than others. Bale, Neymar etc
  • FoCuSs
    309 posts Sunday League Hero
    Clancy wrote: »
    Imagine the scenes if they didn't do a black Friday this year. There would be pandemonium

    We all know EA still exist because of micro transactions, they need to make up for the fail with Battlefront.

    Good guide Blarix...
  • Bowden92
    6072 posts Big Money Move
    Clancy wrote: »
    Imagine the scenes if they didn't do a black Friday this year. There would be pandemonium

    Can't see a money motivated company like EA skipping out on all that money, can you ?
  • A more cynical person would suggest this post is trying to induce a crash!
  • Blarix
    14628 posts Has That Special Something
    TalentFG wrote: »
    A more cynical person would suggest this post is trying to induce a crash!

    Let me just say few things as many from GD are unfamiliar with me. I have been trading for over 6-7 years roughly.

    For the last 5 fifa's I have been in the top 30 transfer list (check it out for yourself) and studying the market is a hobby of mine and many would say that I trade more than actually play. This is based on experience not trying to induce or make you doubt your purchases, you free to do what you please with your coins. This is just a summary of what I know will happen.
  • AliasMaurice
    1850 posts Play-Off Hero
    I think they've been holding back on promos so when it does land many will jump at the chance to buy packs. You could see last year the lightning rounds pack numbers went down slower. They'll be a load of folk with fifa points ready to spend.

    Looking forward to the discounts during the rounds.
  • Shane
    22903 posts Club Captain
    edited November 2017
    Great guide. People buying for inflated prices right now are clueless
  • BaseCamp
    641 posts An Exciting Prospect
    This guy in 1 month has more transfer profit then all of these youtube experts have in 5 years of FUT combined. I'll follow your opinion on it.
  • RKO_VIPER
    421 posts Sunday League Hero
    Clancy wrote: »
    Imagine the scenes if they didn't do a black Friday this year. There would be pandemonium

    Can't really see ea saying no to monies, would expect it to be the end of the world if they did.
  • Cantona84
    4740 posts Big Money Move
    Shane wrote: »
    Great guide. People buying for inflated prices right now are clueless
    BaseCamp wrote: »
    This guy in 1 month has more transfer profit then all of these youtube experts have in 5 years of FUT combined. I'll follow your opinion on it.

  • Choepiechakie
    24874 posts Club Captain
    Gonna follow your route. Well built arguments. My compliments.
  • Blarix
    14628 posts Has That Special Something
    If you have some time watch this video as I personally think this is roughly accurate. He is not sure of himself but he is more in the know than the others (like MattHD who doesn't know how the market works!)

  • Messi181
    259 posts Sunday League Hero
    When do you guys think promos will hit? This week or next week?
  • MikeyP_FC
    11159 posts Has That Special Something
    Wrong. I bought Pogba for 438 and he’s now 449 minimum (PS3 btw).
  • Messi181 wrote: »
    When do you guys think promos will hit? This week or next week?

    As someone who usually picks up FIFAs around christmas but this year bought at release, I also wonder when BF promos usually hit.
  • Blarix
    14628 posts Has That Special Something
    Messi181 wrote: »
    When do you guys think promos will hit? This week or next week?

    As someone who usually picks up FIFAs around christmas but this year bought at release, I also wonder when BF promos usually hit.

    Friday lol
  • GhostHN
    509 posts Sunday League Hero
    Blarix wrote: »
    It's that time of the year again, full of joy, disappointments and disagreements.

    Will try to explain roughly the how's and the why's around this very confusing times for most FUT users.

    -When to buy
    -When to Sell
    -What to expect when the actual day comes around.
    -Gold players
    -Icons
    -Promo's


    Q: Did you miss the crash or is the crash going to happen ?

    A: To keep it simple you have not missed the crash and is going to come around soon.

    Q: Why are prices rising instead of going down?

    A: This is the period that is know as the ''Dead cat bounce'' which roughly translates to this:

    ''a temporary recovery in share prices after a substantial fall, caused by speculators buying in order to cover their positions.'' a.k.a panic buying.

    dead-cat-bounce.jpg


    This happens every year without a single fail, whether it's influenced by youtubers/streamers or forums, panic buying always get rampant for short period of time before the inevitable decline towards crash.

    Pro tip: If you did buy players/holding them right now is the perfect time to sell to maximise profit.



    Promo packs: This is the first year in a very long time that we didn't see 50/100k packs and it will have huge impact on the market and IMO will flatten the market.


    When to buy gold players :

    -Best time to buy players under 200k is DURING promo packs as they will be packed at insane high rates, they have always been the lowest during lighting rounds (open bid is your best friend) .

    -Mid tier-high level Golds will come down naturally with the market dipping.


    Icons:

    This is one requires a lot of patience but from what I have seen the drop so far wasn't anything drastic compared to last few years.

    The Icon market will be very much stable and ''artificially'' inflated for most of this week before it comes down drastically (guess work: Saturday they'll start going down). If you're buying now you're buying into the hype created by certain youtubers that will 100% cash out by the end of this week. This period is the waiting period and where most traders have the hardest time being patient but it will pay off.

    Black Friday: From previous years I have noticed prices are always lowest during the 100k lighting rounds across the board, as most people by this time have already bought up and with influx of new cards on the market the under cutting is a joy to watch. I include cyber Monday as part of the BF weekend and promo's will spit out bunch of new cards with not many buyers to pick up the deals, it's a very risky move but one that could benefit you the most if you time it correct.

    Most important tip that I can give anyone is to SET A TARGET PRICE for the cards you want to buy and once it hits it buy and don't look back.




    PATIENCE


    Happy hunting!

    You did the same topic last year right? I rmeember the dead cat graphic and lots of ppl laugh but you were right all the time.

    I do believe that things will happens as yo stated. I myself have 7 mill coins ready for the real crash that is yet to happen
  • Blarix wrote: »
    Messi181 wrote: »
    When do you guys think promos will hit? This week or next week?

    As someone who usually picks up FIFAs around christmas but this year bought at release, I also wonder when BF promos usually hit.

    Friday lol

    I wasn't sure if they kicked off in advance, but dropped the global lightning's on BF itself. thanks.
  • Tomb1302
    7615 posts League Winner
    Blarix wrote: »
    It's that time of the year again, full of joy, disappointments and disagreements.

    Will try to explain roughly the how's and the why's around this very confusing times for most FUT users.

    -When to buy
    -When to Sell
    -What to expect when the actual day comes around.
    -Gold players
    -Icons
    -Promo's


    Q: Did you miss the crash or is the crash going to happen ?

    A: To keep it simple you have not missed the crash and is going to come around soon.

    Q: Why are prices rising instead of going down?

    A: This is the period that is know as the ''Dead cat bounce'' which roughly translates to this:

    ''a temporary recovery in share prices after a substantial fall, caused by speculators buying in order to cover their positions.'' a.k.a panic buying.

    dead-cat-bounce.jpg


    This happens every year without a single fail, whether it's influenced by youtubers/streamers or forums, panic buying always get rampant for short period of time before the inevitable decline towards crash.

    Pro tip: If you did buy players/holding them right now is the perfect time to sell to maximise profit.



    Promo packs: This is the first year in a very long time that we didn't see 50/100k packs and it will have huge impact on the market and IMO will flatten the market.


    When to buy gold players :

    -Best time to buy players under 200k is DURING promo packs as they will be packed at insane high rates, they have always been the lowest during lighting rounds (open bid is your best friend) .

    -Mid tier-high level Golds will come down naturally with the market dipping.


    Icons:

    This is one requires a lot of patience but from what I have seen the drop so far wasn't anything drastic compared to last few years.

    The Icon market will be very much stable and ''artificially'' inflated for most of this week before it comes down drastically (guess work: Saturday they'll start going down). If you're buying now you're buying into the hype created by certain youtubers that will 100% cash out by the end of this week. This period is the waiting period and where most traders have the hardest time being patient but it will pay off.

    Black Friday: From previous years I have noticed prices are always lowest during the 100k lighting rounds across the board, as most people by this time have already bought up and with influx of new cards on the market the under cutting is a joy to watch. I include cyber Monday as part of the BF weekend and promo's will spit out bunch of new cards with not many buyers to pick up the deals, it's a very risky move but one that could benefit you the most if you time it correct.

    Most important tip that I can give anyone is to SET A TARGET PRICE for the cards you want to buy and once it hits it buy and don't look back.




    PATIENCE


    Happy hunting!

    Bookmarked. Needed this!
  • Blarix
    14628 posts Has That Special Something
    Blarix wrote: »
    Messi181 wrote: »
    When do you guys think promos will hit? This week or next week?

    As someone who usually picks up FIFAs around christmas but this year bought at release, I also wonder when BF promos usually hit.

    Friday lol

    I wasn't sure if they kicked off in advance, but dropped the global lightning's on BF itself. thanks.

    It is possible they release before BF, last year they did. EA have been really different with promo's this year compared to last.
  • Giallorossi
    467 posts An Exciting Prospect
    Nice, tnx
  • Joestoe
    1965 posts Fans' Favourite
    Thanks :) Getting kinda stoked for BF myself at the moment. Hyped to open up some packs although I know I shouldn't.
  • GrinWithoutaKat
    1147 posts Professional
    I think there's an element to both sides being right. I'm not sure prices will go lower than they did this weekend, but I definitely think they will go back down to that level, probably more than once before BF.

    As a side note, I can't wait to see what the TOTW might look like that week. There's probably going to be a huge supply of them so hope it's got some good players in it.
  • Blarix wrote: »
    TalentFG wrote: »
    A more cynical person would suggest this post is trying to induce a crash!

    Let me just say few things as many from GD are unfamiliar with me. I have been trading for over 6-7 years roughly.

    For the last 5 fifa's I have been in the top 30 transfer list (check it out for yourself) and studying the market is a hobby of mine and many would say that I trade more than actually play. This is based on experience not trying to induce or make you doubt your purchases, you free to do what you please with your coins. This is just a summary of what I know will happen.

    Im aware of what you purvey

    Regardless of how many coins you have, a crash now would benefit you if you're cashed out. Which assuming what you're preaching I would expect you to be.

    If you're cashed in a crash is obviously bad for business.

    So you want/need a crash and therefore would want to help induce one



  • Blarix
    14628 posts Has That Special Something
    TalentFG wrote: »
    Blarix wrote: »
    TalentFG wrote: »
    A more cynical person would suggest this post is trying to induce a crash!

    Let me just say few things as many from GD are unfamiliar with me. I have been trading for over 6-7 years roughly.

    For the last 5 fifa's I have been in the top 30 transfer list (check it out for yourself) and studying the market is a hobby of mine and many would say that I trade more than actually play. This is based on experience not trying to induce or make you doubt your purchases, you free to do what you please with your coins. This is just a summary of what I know will happen.

    Im aware of what you purvey

    Regardless of how many coins you have, a crash now would benefit you if you're cashed out. Which assuming what you're preaching I would expect you to be.

    If you're cashed in a crash is obviously bad for business.

    So you want/need a crash and therefore would want to help induce one



    I can buy the best team in the game now as it stands, stop assuming there is an agenda behind this. I cashed out cause I know what is coming and enjoy the whole ups and downs of the market. I don't ''NEED'' a crash, I would be fine regardless.
  • piccolo_bsc
    190 posts Has Potential To Be Special
    I bought Pires 88, Kluivert 88, Dybala, T.Silva, Eriksen, Alba and Walker yesterday.
    By your prediction i should sell these players Thursday night and rebuy them next Tuesday? Ist that correct?
  • Blarix wrote: »
    TalentFG wrote: »
    Blarix wrote: »
    TalentFG wrote: »
    A more cynical person would suggest this post is trying to induce a crash!

    Let me just say few things as many from GD are unfamiliar with me. I have been trading for over 6-7 years roughly.

    For the last 5 fifa's I have been in the top 30 transfer list (check it out for yourself) and studying the market is a hobby of mine and many would say that I trade more than actually play. This is based on experience not trying to induce or make you doubt your purchases, you free to do what you please with your coins. This is just a summary of what I know will happen.

    Im aware of what you purvey

    Regardless of how many coins you have, a crash now would benefit you if you're cashed out. Which assuming what you're preaching I would expect you to be.

    If you're cashed in a crash is obviously bad for business.

    So you want/need a crash and therefore would want to help induce one



    I can buy the best team in the game now as it stands, stop assuming there is an agenda behind this. I cashed out cause I know what is coming and enjoy the whole ups and downs of the market. I don't ''NEED'' a crash, I would be fine regardless.

    Regardless of how you spin it being cashed out means you want/need a crash

    The larger your pot the bigger the chunk of change you will lose if it doesn't crash
134
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