Black Friday Event |Market swings| Expectations

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Blarix
14654 posts Has That Special Something
It's that time of the year again, full of joy, disappointments and disagreements.

Will try to explain roughly the how's and the why's around this very confusing times for most FUT users.

-When to buy
-When to Sell
-What to expect when the actual day comes around.
-Gold players
-Icons
-Promo's


Q: Did you miss the crash or is the crash going to happen ?

A: To keep it simple you have not missed the crash and is going to come around soon.

Q: Why are prices rising instead of going down?

A: This is the period that is know as the ''Dead cat bounce'' which roughly translates to this:

''a temporary recovery in share prices after a substantial fall, caused by speculators buying in order to cover their positions.'' a.k.a panic buying.

dead-cat-bounce.jpg


This happens every year without a single fail, whether it's influenced by youtubers/streamers or forums, panic buying always get rampant for short period of time before the inevitable decline towards crash.

Pro tip: If you did buy players/holding them right now is the perfect time to sell to maximise profit.



Promo packs: This is the first year in a very long time that we didn't see 50/100k packs and it will have huge impact on the market and IMO will flatten the market.


When to buy gold players :

-Best time to buy players under 200k is DURING promo packs as they will be packed at insane high rates, they have always been the lowest during lighting rounds (open bid is your best friend) .

-Mid tier-high level Golds will come down naturally with the market dipping.


Icons:

This is one requires a lot of patience but from what I have seen the drop so far wasn't anything drastic compared to last few years.

The Icon market will be very much stable and ''artificially'' inflated for most of this week before it comes down drastically (guess work: Saturday they'll start going down). If you're buying now you're buying into the hype created by certain youtubers that will 100% cash out by the end of this week. This period is the waiting period and where most traders have the hardest time being patient but it will pay off.

Black Friday: From previous years I have noticed prices are always lowest during the 100k lighting rounds across the board, as most people by this time have already bought up and with influx of new cards on the market the under cutting is a joy to watch. I include cyber Monday as part of the BF weekend and promo's will spit out bunch of new cards with not many buyers to pick up the deals, it's a very risky move but one that could benefit you the most if you time it correct.

Most important tip that I can give anyone is to SET A TARGET PRICE for the cards you want to buy and once it hits it buy and don't look back.


Let me know If I forget something or you want to add something to it.

PATIENCE


Happy hunting!



Comments

  • Pikachu
    7108 posts Big Money Move
    With regards to Icons, will they drop that much as they'll be needed for Prime Icon SBCs? Supply
    And Demand?
  • Orison
    42205 posts International Superstar
    edited November 2017
    Pikachu wrote: »
    With regards to Icons, will they drop that much as they'll be needed for Prime Icon SBCs? Supply
    And Demand?

    I can't see EA requiring the expensive icons as there aren't enough of them. Someone like prime R9 will simply require 3-4 icons.

    So yeah the meta icons aren't effected by any SBC requirements imo since they got a long way to get to 500k. The lower ones will hold their price I guess.
  • Santiago
    21487 posts Club Captain
    Very good thread. Man knows what he is talking about.
  • Blarix
    14654 posts Has That Special Something
    Pikachu wrote: »
    With regards to Icons, will they drop that much as they'll be needed for Prime Icon SBCs? Supply
    And Demand?

    Very good question and one I forgot to include. The central icons will stay around 500k market or depending on demand of people wanting to complete SBC's. All the others will fall drastically.
  • thanks @Blarix for putting this together
  • Bowden92
    6072 posts Big Money Move
    Should post this in GD aswell, so many deluded people over there
  • Campino
    22063 posts Club Captain
    Bowden92 wrote: »
    Should post this in GD aswell, so many deluded people over there

    Nope

    He will be banished forever
  • Littleland95
    13461 posts Moderator
    Very good article. Thanks for sharing.
  • Bowden92
    6072 posts Big Money Move
    Campino wrote: »
    Bowden92 wrote: »
    Should post this in GD aswell, so many deluded people over there

    Nope

    He will be banished forever

    Wouldn't be worth it anyway seeing all the divs post their BS
  • Littleland95
    13461 posts Moderator
    How low do you recon RB Puyol and 89 Laudrup can drop? What about Jay Jay 87?

    Drastic price drop on them sounds great to me. :)
  • jdros
    2424 posts Fans' Favourite
    This was nice of you to do. Icon prices (at least most of the ones I've tracked) seem inflated at the moment. In fact, while I made out with profit on the couple I tried out in the last 2 weeks, had I held through the weekend and listed at lowest BIN right now I would have made significantly more profit than I did (roughly +50k per icon after tax at a glance, assuming someone bought my card). But then I look at another card I've targeted and it is almost at my target "don't look back, just enjoy the rest of the year" price after watching for a couple weeks.

    I have 3 cards I want to buy, hoping to stretch it to 4. So, so close to that right now.
  • EddieFicio
    15387 posts World Class
    Just had a look at GD, man its grim over there.
  • Blarix
    14654 posts Has That Special Something
    EddieFicio wrote: »
    Just had a look at GD, man its grim over there.

    I'll post it over there, it's a cuckoo land over there though might get blasted lol.
  • EddieFicio
    15387 posts World Class
    Blarix wrote: »
    EddieFicio wrote: »
    Just had a look at GD, man its grim over there.

    I'll post it over there, it's a cuckoo land over there though might get blasted lol.

    You'll get trash talked by the tradebeast who think Pogba won't get close to dropping 30k on his current price.
  • Bowden92
    6072 posts Big Money Move
    EddieFicio wrote: »
    Just had a look at GD, man its grim over there.

    GD is an absolute joke, the lack of intellect compared to here is outstanding, I'm not even going to look once prices start falling, just like other day when prices rose, every other thread was basically the same, leave GD to the UT rif raf
  • Olleman
    11612 posts Has That Special Something
    Blarix wrote: »
    EddieFicio wrote: »
    Just had a look at GD, man its grim over there.

    I'll post it over there, it's a cuckoo land over there though might get blasted lol.

    Don't forget to mention your transferprofit and they will no longer question your word ;) :)
  • Sanchezzzz
    3092 posts National Call-Up
    Buy when you want sell when you want tbh easiest way.
  • Samuel Eto'o
    19344 posts World Class
    EddieFicio wrote: »
    Just had a look at GD, man its grim over there.

    It's actually quite sad how awful it is over there
  • Bowden92
    6072 posts Big Money Move
    Olleman wrote: »
    Blarix wrote: »
    EddieFicio wrote: »
    Just had a look at GD, man its grim over there.

    I'll post it over there, it's a cuckoo land over there though might get blasted lol.

    Don't forget to mention your transferprofit and they will no longer question your word ;) :)

    No No, you're mistaken, apparently everybody is a market expert over there, "the crash has been and gone" they say, can't beat GD if you want a laugh
  • Bowden92
    6072 posts Big Money Move
    EddieFicio wrote: »
    Just had a look at GD, man its grim over there.

    It's actually quite sad how awful it is over there

    It really is, it's an absolute joke, at least our section most people have abit of knowledge and common sense
  • MikeyP_FC
    11159 posts Has That Special Something
    GD is like a completely different website that I never frequent.
  • Olleman
    11612 posts Has That Special Something
    Bowden92 wrote: »
    Olleman wrote: »
    Blarix wrote: »
    EddieFicio wrote: »
    Just had a look at GD, man its grim over there.

    I'll post it over there, it's a cuckoo land over there though might get blasted lol.

    Don't forget to mention your transferprofit and they will no longer question your word ;) :)

    No No, you're mistaken, apparently everybody is a market expert over there, "the crash has been and gone" they say, can't beat GD if you want a laugh

    Haha, I do not dare to enter tho. Afraid I will not return :joy:
  • Bowden92
    6072 posts Big Money Move
    Olleman wrote: »
    Bowden92 wrote: »
    Olleman wrote: »
    Blarix wrote: »
    EddieFicio wrote: »
    Just had a look at GD, man its grim over there.

    I'll post it over there, it's a cuckoo land over there though might get blasted lol.

    Don't forget to mention your transferprofit and they will no longer question your word ;) :)

    No No, you're mistaken, apparently everybody is a market expert over there, "the crash has been and gone" they say, can't beat GD if you want a laugh

    Haha, I do not dare to enter tho. Afraid I will not return :joy:

    As MikeyP says, it actually is like a different website, it's unreal
  • Agent VZ
    29162 posts Player of the Year
    Bring the crash on still needs to buy my midfield and defense. :D
  • Blarix
    14654 posts Has That Special Something
    Agent VZ wrote: »
    Bring the crash on still needs to buy my midfield and defense. :D

    Praise the lawd
  • hjdjydyufu
    1539 posts Play-Off Hero
    thanks @Blarix for putting this together

  • Dodds
    7052 posts Big Money Move
    Good guy Blarix.
  • Yoshi
    3316 posts National Call-Up
    We gotta have a talk in pm's to figure out some stuff mert. Done research based on past years, need to run it by u
  • BWild
    2388 posts Fans' Favourite
    Out of curiosity, how did last year compare to 2016? I feel like there are a lot of factors that change year in year out. 2016>2017 more awareness as well as introduction of WL. 2017>2018 even more awareness as well as introduction of SB.

    One other thing, I feel like that Yahsir guy from EA likes to post the "We could have done the exact same thing as last year, but where's the fun in that?" Tweet a lot. Just something to consider. Appreciate all the help and information you provide to the forums, regards of who listens.
  • Rutta
    5928 posts Big Money Move
    Thanks man and can't wait.

    Although Black Friday may be a washout if this threads anything to go by :trollface:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/FIFA/comments/7cultk/boycott_black_friday/
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