After extensive playing / testing I came to conclusion that ratio of tackles between teams is pretty clear indication of how much the match was / was not in your favor.
There is obviously lot of factors like "lag" etc. coming into this but I think its pretty clear that if your players made 1/3 tackles of your opponent (for instance 9 to 27) the advantage / disadvatage was pretty much around that mark and vice versa.
Obviously that does not mean you cant win the match, just it will be proportionally harder.
Tested mainly in WL /WL Qualification, divisions gameplay / ratios are different.
Unlike shots, you may test tackles pretty easily, excluding extremes like 5ATB/PTB which has obvious inclination to feature lot of tackles.
It also seems most terrible human defenders have most capable AI defenders in team, but its just an observation.